US - India: Can goodwill overcome differences?

The warm feelings that the two leaders of the US and India have shown each other are a clear message to the world that the relationship between “Trump – Modi” and “Washington – New Delhi” is closer than ever. However, is it “warm on the outside but calm on the inside”? And can President Trump’s visit erase the differences and disagreements that have existed between the two sides in recent times?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump at Motera Stadium on February 24. Photo: CNN

The perfect couple

The unprecedented exchange with the participation of more than 120,000 people named “Namaste Trump” - “Hello Mr. Trump” on February 24 in Ahmedabad city opened the 36-hour long visit of the US President to India this time. Moreover, there has never been a visit that the Indian Prime Minister’s government had to carefully plan for, spending millions of dollars just to refurbish the landscape of Ahmedabad city. Among them, it is necessary to mention the 400m long wall along the road from the airport to Motera stadium just to block the view into the city’s slums, although the government denied and affirmed that this was a pre-planned plan.

In fact, Prime Minister Modi's "warmth" is not accidental. Looking back at September last year, Indian history has never recorded a Prime Minister visiting the US who was warmly welcomed with a rally of more than 50,000 people. And there has never been a US President like Mr. Trump who welcomed a guest with such "drums and flags". Everyone understands that these are unprecedented foreign political precedents of the two US - India allies aiming at strategic goals.

For Mr. Modi and Mr. Trump personally, appearing and speaking at such large rallies together is a message that the two leaders are very supportive of each other. That is why, in his speech before leaving for India, President Trump emphasized that Prime Minister Modi is “a friend” of his and he looks forward to coming to the Indian people. And in his speech at Motera Stadium yesterday, Mr. Trump repeatedly “sent words of love” to the Indian people: “We thank you for this extremely warm welcome. We love you. We love the people of India!”…

Banners welcoming President Donald Trump at Motera Stadium, India. Photo: AFP - Getty

Looking back, right after his election, Mr. Trump began to have a strategy to get closer to Mr. Modi and vice versa, Mr. Modi also did not miss the opportunity to warm up his personal relationship with the US President. For his part, recently, President Trump has not hesitated to express his support for the Modi government in decisions on the Kashmir issue as well as in the India-Pakistan tension related to the Kashmir hotspot. This move by Mr. Trump has great significance and impact because up to now, the US has been a traditional military ally of Pakistan. And that, once it cannot maintain military and financial aid from the US, Pakistan will hardly be able to compete in arms and missile races with India.

In addition, the Trump administration has also provided India with military-related technologies under a strategic trade mechanism. This is a big step forward compared to the previous administration, which only considered India as a major military partner. Currently, both US and Indian leaders have more motivation and favorable conditions to get closer to each other.

“The heart of a fig is not like the heart of a sycamore.”

There is no denying the similarities and favorable conditions for the two leaders of the US and India to increasingly tighten their relationship. The two sides also share many strategic interests and can "rely" on each other. Washington needs New Delhi to realize the "Indo-Pacific" strategy and vice versa, New Delhi also needs Washington to support and back its "East" policy. It can be said that the common goal of both is to deal with China and its strong increase in presence in the region in recent times. For President Trump, it is also about seeking votes from Indian-origin voters who have traditionally voted for the Democrats.

However, it is also necessary to acknowledge another reality that the relationship between the two sides still has many divisions and disagreements. These are a series of issues such as trade conflicts or military cooperation... First of all, President Trump's "America First" policy has caused many allies, including India, to suffer losses, with the imposition of higher tariffs on aluminum and steel products from abroad. India also encountered many difficulties when the US forced to stop importing oil from Iran or Venezuela. Not simply in terms of economy and oil, this move by the US is not only aimed at isolating Iran but also makes India's foreign policy face difficulties. Once the Tehran - New Delhi relationship is "blocked", India's path to increase its influence in Central Asia will also face difficulties.

The relationship between the two sides has also been conflicted in recent times when India decided to buy the S-400 air defense system made by Russia, and the US even threatened to sanction New Delhi under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) if its ally did not cancel this plan. Furthermore, in order to increase pressure on India to open its market, on June 5 last year, the US officially ended the trade preferential program for India under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program. This move has caused a rift in the US-India alliance. In response, India also increased tariffs on 28 US imported goods from June 16 after many delays.

India's purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system has strained relations with the US. Photo: Washington Times

But more than anyone else, both Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi understand that, despite the difficulties and disagreements, the two sides still have many common strategic interests that need to be cooperated. Not to mention, the US certainly does not let India lean too much towards Russia or China, and India itself also seeks many strategic benefits when taking advantage of the US as a counterweight to its relations with China and Russia. That is why, right before the visit, the US approved the sale of the Integrated Air Defense Weapon System (IADWS) worth nearly 1.9 billion USD to India.

For his part, Mr. Modi also expressed his willingness to meet the US's trade demands, including signing a memorandum of understanding on intellectual property rights with ally Washington. To show goodwill, at the end of last year, despite buying the S-400 from Russia, India delayed buying 200 helicopters from Moscow and instead prepared to sign an agreement to buy aircraft worth more than 7 billion USD from Washington. Therefore, experts predict that although they may not be able to make a breakthrough in resolving thorny issues such as trade or tariffs, the two US and Indian leaders will probably still have to reach some agreements - even if they are formal. And that, both must maintain a balance between disagreements that cannot be resolved in a day or two!