America may have to social distance until 2022

People in Brooklyn, New York, USA strictly practice social distancing when shopping at the supermarket. Photo: AFP

On April 14, researchers predicted that the United States may have to accept social distancing measures, such as stay-at-home orders and school closures, until 2022. This is the scenario that American scientists believe will happen unless a Covid-19 vaccine is found soon.

This information was published by researchers at Harvard University's TH Chan School of Public Health in the journal Science on April 14. These findings are completely contrary to the study released by the White House, which said that the pandemic could end this summer.

A team at Harvard School of Public Health used what is known about Covid-19 and other coronaviruses to map out possible scenarios for the current pandemic.

“Intermittent lockdowns may be required until 2022 unless critical care capacity is significantly increased or a therapeutic or vaccine is developed,” they wrote in the report. “Even in the event of apparent containment, continued surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 is needed, as infections could re-emerge as late as 2024.”

Forecasts from the Harvard team also indicate that the virus could return quite quickly once restrictions are lifted.

“If the episodic approach is chosen, it may need to be implemented for several years, which is obviously a very long time,” said Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an author of the study and a professor of epidemiology at Harvard School of Public Health.

Another important factor is whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after being infected. That is not yet known.

Potential challenges include finding a reliable test to determine who has antibodies to the coronavirus, establishing immunity from previous infection and how long it lasts, and the ability of overwhelmed health systems to conduct reliable, widespread antibody tests in communities.

There are also difficult social questions surrounding immunity certificates, which have emerged as a possible option in the UK. Will they create a two-tier society, where those with immunity certificates can return to a more normal life, while others remain locked down?

The researchers said they were aware that such prolonged distancing, even if implemented intermittently, could have “profound negative economic, social and educational consequences.”

They hope their research will help identify possible trajectories of the current pandemic under different approaches, identify additional options for combating it, and spark further thinking about ways to control the pandemic.

In the US, Covid-19 cases are still increasing, but social distancing is proving effective. Director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Robert Redfield affirmed that social distancing is “one of the most powerful weapons” against Covid-19./.