US should convince Ukraine to accept ceasefire with Russia

According to Peter Sojka, an expert on foreign relations and geopolitics at the Slovak Academy of Sciences, after nearly two years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation on the front line has fallen into a stalemate. The Ukrainian army has failed in its carefully planned and funded counteroffensive. Meanwhile, the Russian army has maintained its defensive positions, forcing Kiev to make maximum use of Western weapons, causing Ukraine's losses to increase.

This situation also shows that the level of US and Western aid to Ukraine is no longer enough to change the balance of the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to call on Western allies to increase arms supplies. However, due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as American fatigue with the seemingly endless conflict in Ukraine, Washington's resources are gradually being depleted, and the Western media is increasingly discussing the possibility of a ceasefire.

Therefore, according to expert Peter Sojka, the question is: Is it time to pursue a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine? This expert also gives some explanations.

First, the situation on the front lines has remained stalemate for a long time, despite the efforts of all sides. Russia has switched to an offensive strategy, exploiting corruption in Ukraine and Kiev’s ineffective use of Western military aid. A breakthrough on the battlefield can only occur if the armed conflict escalates sharply, and one side uses extremely lethal weapons.

Second, the Soviet-era military equipment stocks of many European countries are being depleted, as they have been transferred to Ukraine. This has helped the United States secure long-term contracts to strengthen its military equipment production and maintenance. As a result, the US military-industrial complex has emerged as the main supplier of new military equipment to Europe.

Third, the United States currently dominates the European gas market. Before the conflict, Russia was a major supplier of liquefied natural gas to European countries. However, after the Nord Stream pipeline explosion, the Kremlin lost a traditional market.

Fourth, financial aid to Ukraine is a distasteful proposition for American taxpayers because it is proving costly. In June 2022, inflation in the United States rose to 9.1%, the highest in more than four decades. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate is at a 22-year high. According to Gallup, 41% of Americans believe that President Joe Biden is giving too much help to Ukraine.

Prioritizing aid to Ukraine over anti-inflation measures has left the American public unhappy with the White House. European countries are also expressing conflict fatigue, and are increasingly divided over continued support for Kiev.

Ultimately, achieving a ceasefire could be a key factor in President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, with his administration’s approval rating plummeting to 40% in recent polls.

Former US President Donald Trump has criticized Mr. Biden over the situation in Ukraine, saying that the current president has mishandled relations with Russia. Mr. Trump once asserted that he could resolve the conflict within 24 hours. So, if President Biden can broker a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, it will neutralize Mr. Trump's attacks, significantly strengthen Mr. Biden's image, and improve his chances of winning a second term.

The main challenge for the White House, however, is to convince Ukrainian President Zelensky to enter negotiations. Mr. Zelensky has steadfastly refused to negotiate with Russian President Putin, and is determined to take back all of the territory, including Crimea.

"Therefore, President Biden faces the important task of convincing President Zelensky to start negotiations with President Putin. Although the Kremlin holds the advantage on the battlefield, the White House dominates the information field. The US government should prepare the international community for the possibility of a ceasefire and present the peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow as a collective victory for the West," said Peter Sojka, an expert on foreign relations and geopolitics./.