US - China: Around the relationship that dominates the world

(Baonghean) - In the Nghe An newspaper published on June 11, Major General Le Van Cuong - former Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the Ministry of Public Security, gave comments and views on the 2015 G7 Summit. Nghe An newspaper continues to introduce to readers the Major General's analysis of the latest developments in the relationship between China and the US - the "nucleus" of the G7 group.

US - China: A relationship of both cooperation and competition. Photo: AP

Reporter:Major General, recently, there have been many opinions surrounding the increasingly tense relationship between the US and China. Could you please explain why this relationship has reached such a state?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The tension between the US and China is not exactly new. To take a recent time frame, I think it was probably around 2010 that the relationship began to show contradictions and conflicts.

As a reminder to readers, in April 2010, China announced that its GDP reached 5.8 trillion USD, surpassing Japan's 5.48 trillion USD to become the world's second largest economy, after the United States. Since this time, people have commented that China has begun to have clear changes in its attitude and behavior, especially toward neighboring countries, in an increasingly tough and imposing direction. Many foreign experts, especially French experts, believe that China has somewhat exaggerated itself after achieving certain results. They even compare the attitude and behavior of Chinese leaders to autism! Of course, those opinions need further discussion, but I think that in general, it is true that China's behavior from 2010 onwards has become more unpredictable than before.

For example, in 2010, China cut the exploration cables of the seismic survey ship of the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group and the Viking 2 ship of a foreign economic group cooperating with Vietnam right in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone. In 2011, China continued to provoke Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines. In 2012, it officially decided to establish Sansha City, which covers both Hoang Sa and Truong Sa of Vietnam, and invited international bids for 9 oil blocks in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone. In 2013, China established an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, covering the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands administered by Japan and a part of the territorial waters of up to 2,300 km2 administered by South Korea. In 2014, China towed the Haiyang Shiyou 981 drilling rig into Vietnam's exclusive economic zone. In 2015, China rapidly accelerated the conversion of submerged rocks in the East Sea into military bases.

Thus, from 2010 to now, China has continuously taken actions that have stirred up international public opinion in an unfavorable direction. "Proportional" to the level of China's arrogance is the opposition of the international community in general and the US in particular. From the statement of reminder to the issuance of a Resolution demanding China to stop its unreasonable actions in the East Sea and the South China Sea, and most recently, the US announced that it was considering sending troops and warships to the South China Sea - a serious warning. Through that, it can be seen how tense the relationship between these two countries is, after a period of development as mentioned above.

And if you ask: Why are they so tense with each other now? I think it is because in the past, China's actions, although unreasonable and causing international and US dissatisfaction, did not directly affect US interests. And now, with the move to build a military base in the East Sea, it is as if China has "implicitly" declared war on the US when the US military base Darwin in Australia is within the artillery range of China's H6 and H6K fighter jets. Not to mention, America's close allies in the region such as the Philippines and Japan will certainly be greatly affected if China achieves its intentions.

Reporter:Will this tension turn into conflict, direct confrontation, General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:That is also the question that is making the whole world “restless”. The two largest countries on the planet “fight” with each other, it will certainly affect the whole world. But I think that the worst scenario can be ruled out. For two reasons:

Firstly, strategically, China does not intend to directly provoke the US. At least until 2022 - the year when the 5th generation of leaders ends and the 6th generation of leaders are handed over. Before that, 2021 will be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and their goal from now until then is to build a moderately prosperous society, even surpassing the US in terms of economic size. So it can be said that the Xi Jinping era - that is, the current era - will focus on expanding power, developing as much as possible.

Second, in terms of potential, no matter what, the US is still number 1 in the world in both economic and military terms. Currently, China is not capable of directly confronting the US - the only possible counterweight to the US is probably Russia. Knowing this in advance, China certainly will not "poke" the fire ant nest on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, and even aims to maintain a normal, conflict-free relationship with the US at all costs.

As for the US, I think the US is deterring and restraining China like that, but it is not ready to confront China directly. Remember, in the history of the world for thousands of years, no country has risen as fast as China. Five years ago, China surpassed Japan, so who knows whether China will "usurp" the US in the future? Of course, if it does, it will be after 2030 - according to many experts. But to see, for the US, China is a formidable force, not a simple one.

Reporter:So what is the scenario for the relationship between these two countries, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:It is difficult to predict the development of the issue related to the US and China. Because they have been "entangled" with each other for a long time, with a very complicated relationship. The core of this relationship is antagonism, even a "lose - gain" antagonism. It is a contradiction between two countries that are completely opposite in terms of value systems as well as development orientation. On one side, we have a rising country that is increasingly feeling "suffocated" by the current world order. So if we say that China's recent actions demonstrate its ambition to disrupt the world order and assert its position on the map of the new era, I think that view is correct.

In return, the US has officially held the position of the world's number 1 superpower since 1914, which has been 101 years. Obviously, it will not be easy for them to let China surpass and upset the order that they have built, maintained and dominated for so long.

Currently, when both sides are not ready and do not have the conditions to eliminate each other, they choose to cooperate and compete. In my opinion, the competition will become larger and the cooperation will be narrowed. It should be noted that China is taking advantage of every opportunity and every gap to enhance its role in the US's "backyard", for example, the recent trip to Latin American countries by Prime Minister Li Keqiang.

Reporter:Dear Major General, will the development of the relationship between the US and China have an impact on Vietnam?

Major General Le Van Cuong:That is the key point that we cannot ignore when discussing the US-China relationship. It is a fact that Vietnam has always been affected by the two factors mentioned above, in the past, now and in the future. For one reason that cannot be changed, that is geographical location.

History has shown that Vietnam must always be “sensitive” to changes in the US-China relationship. There have been times when they shook hands in harmony and warmth with each other, and the results of those short “honeymoons” are valuable lessons for Vietnam. In short, compared to normal good allied relationships, the US and China once shook hands for more than a decade to embargo and punish Vietnam.

Recalling the past is not to have a resentful, suspicious view, but to maintain sobriety in the face of increasingly complex developments in world security and politics. Especially on our path of integration and development, we will always have to ask the question: Where are we between the US and China? On the one hand, relations with China are inevitable and necessary, after all, it is a neighboring country - whether this neighbor is good or bad is another matter. On the other hand, establishing relations with the US and other economic and military powers in the world such as Japan, the EU, etc. to create for ourselves a balanced, harmonious position in the flow of human development.

Reporter:Thanks for the chat, Major General!

Thuc Anh

(Perform)