Can NATO exist without the US?

According to CNN, US President Donald Trump's open hostility towards Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and his recent comments have raised doubts about whether the White House boss will defend NATO allies "if they don't pay." Mr. Trump has forced European leaders to start thinking about something they had not thought about before - whether the US is a reliable security partner at a time when the continent is rocked by the largest war since the 1940s.

But NATO is not helpless without the United States, as the alliance has more than 1 million troops and modern weapons available from 31 other member states. Analysts say NATO also has the wealth and technological know-how to defend itself without the United States.

According to NATO data, the US and Germany are the biggest contributors to NATO's military, civilian and security investment budgets, each contributing nearly 16%, followed by the UK at 11% and France at 10%. Analysts say it won't take long for Europe to make up for Washington's shortfall.

Ben Schreer, executive director for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN that if European countries unite and buy the right equipment, Europe "can create a serious conventional and nuclear deterrent" against Russia.

“Europe alone is still capable of mustering the resources necessary to defend itself, the question is whether Europe is ready,” the expert said.

And that is the key question. For more than 75 years and 14 US presidents, including the first Trump administration, the US has been the backbone that has held this alliance together.

Decades of transatlantic solidarity may have ended in recent days, analysts say. The “explosion” in the Oval Office between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky, and the subsequent suspension of US aid to Kiev, “has deepened the rift, not just with Ukraine, but with America’s ‘free world’ strategy from President Truman to President Reagan,” said Dan Fried, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and former US assistant secretary of state for Europe.

John Lough, a former NATO official and associate fellow at London’s Chatham House think tank, sees an even deeper rift within the alliance. “The US sees Europe as a competitor rather than an ally,” he said, adding that Washington’s commitment to defending its NATO allies is therefore in doubt. It is a rift that is unlikely to heal.

However, some analysts say a NATO without the US is not such a bad idea.

“As soon as America’s allies believe they can no longer count on America’s ability to defend them when needed,” said Moritz Graefrath, a postdoctoral fellow in security and foreign policy at the William & Mary Institute of Global Studies.,They will quickly assume responsibility and work to develop their own capabilities.” In this sense, the US withdrawal will create a Europe that is even stronger, not weaker.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes the process has already begun. At this week’s EU summit, Tusk said: “Europe as a whole is really capable of winning any military, financial, economic confrontation with Russia – we are simply stronger. We just need to start believing in it. And it seems to be happening.”

What is Europe?

In theory, European militaries could be formidable. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Türkiye has the largest armed force in NATO after the United States, with 355,200 active personnel. Next is France with 202,200 troops, Germany with 179,850 troops, Poland with 164,100 troops, Italy with 161,850, the United Kingdom with 141,100…

Several major NATO nations also have weapons that are on par or many times better than Russia's. In addition to the US, France and Britain also maintain nuclear forces, both of which deploy ballistic missile submarines.

NATO allies other than the US have about 2,000 fighter and ground attack aircraft, including dozens of new F-35 stealth jets.

Ground forces include modern tanks, including German Leopards and British Challengers. NATO members in Europe can deploy powerful cruise missiles, such as the joint Franco-British SCALP/Storm Shadow.

The Military Balance 2025 report notes that Europe is taking steps to improve its military without the help of the United States. In 2024, six European countries agreed on a project to develop a ground-launched cruise missile, made moves to increase their ammunition production capacity, and diversified their supply base, looking to countries like Brazil, Israel, and South Korea as new sources of military hardware.

Analysts say that even if the US withdraws from Europe completely, it will still leave behind important infrastructure.

According to the Congressional Research Service, the United States has 31 permanent bases in Europe — naval, air, land, and command facilities that would be made available to the countries where they are located, if the United States withdrew its troops.

Observers say that the US military infrastructure will largely remain intact for a long time, so that the US will still be able to return to these bases in Europe.