Russia staged failed US-NATO talks to create an excuse to invade Ukraine
(Baonghean.vn) - On December 17, analysts said that Russia should not expect the US and its allies to accept Moscow's demands regarding security assurance proposals, including banning further expansion of NATO activities as well as stopping all military activities of the alliance in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
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| Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: AP |
However, the US and its NATO allies have signaled they may be willing to negotiate with Russia, especially if the Kremlin agrees to withdraw some troops along the border with Ukraine, raising concerns about a possible invasion.
The US and NATO have reacted to a draft treaty presented to them by the Russian Foreign Ministry earlier this week and made public on December 17. The draft, prepared without consultation with the US and NATO, would require the military alliance not to deploy additional troops to countries where NATO forces were not present in 1997. Those countries include Eastern European alliance members Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states and several other former Soviet republics. The proposed treaty would also require both sides to limit the deployment of short- and medium-range missiles and large-scale military exercises near Russia’s borders.
The Biden administration is preparing to respond to Russia’s demands next week, US officials said. “Russia has already weighed its concerns against US and NATO activities,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at an event sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations on December 17. “We will weigh our concerns against Russian activities that we believe are detrimental to our interests and our values. That is the basis of reciprocity, on which you will pursue any form of dialogue. We can make progress in some areas, but in other areas, we have to push back.”
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| Russian troops take part in exercises at the Kadamovskiy training ground in the Rostov region of southern Russia on December 14, 2021. Photo: AP |
Russian officials presented the draft treaty to the US and NATO on December 15 but then unexpectedly released the document on December 17, before the treaty's supposed partners had time to respond.
“Doing this within two days of presenting the first draft to US diplomats is unprecedented,” said Andrew Lohsen, a fellow in the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “The rapid release of these documents suggests that the Russians understand that these negotiations will not progress very far.”
Meanwhile, Jeffrey Edmonds of the CNA Institute for Security Studies, said Russia may be orchestrating the talks to fail, thereby creating a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine. “For a country that is well versed in negotiations and treaties… the notion of sending us a draft treaty is a little absurd, and I’m sure the Russians understand that. So what’s the point?” Edmonds said. “The problem is that they’re cloaking themselves in a very thin layer of legitimacy to cover up the very real possibility that they (Russia) will invade Ukraine in the next few months.”
