Russia halts gas transit through Ukraine.
The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will cease at 8:00 a.m. (Moscow time) on January 1, 2025.
According to RIA Novosti, data from the Ukrainian GTS operator (OGTSU) indicates that applications for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine have dropped to zero as of January 1, 2025.
Previously, on December 31, 2024, Gazprom reported the delivery of green fuel via Sudzha GIS with a volume confirmed by Ukraine of 37.2 million cubic meters as of December 31. This was the last day the agreement with Ukraine's Naftogas on gas transit was in effect.
According to the document, deliveries under the contract will cease at 8:00 AM on January 1, 2025 (Moscow time). The Ukrainian authorities have previously stated on several occasions that they have no plans to extend the agreement.
Over the past year, Gazprom has supplied approximately 15.5 billion cubic meters of gas via this route, accounting for about 4.5% of total European consumption. Moldova and four EU countries receive gas through this transit route: Slovakia, Austria, Italy, and the Czech Republic.
Experts warn that the suspension of gas shipments risks raising gas prices and creating local imbalances in the European gas market.
If supplies via Ukraine are cut off, Russia's only gas supply to Europeans will remain the Balkan Stream, which receives fuel from the Turkish Stream. Annually, this stream supplies approximately 14-15 billion cubic meters of gas to Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Hungary.
However, European countries could continue to receive gas transiting through Ukraine without a new agreement between Moscow and Kyiv. To maintain transit, experts have outlined three possible scenarios.
Firstly, the general conditions for transit and transfer of ownership of gas remain unchanged. However, Gazprom will not register the capacity; instead, a legally unrelated company from Europe will. Secondly, the point of transfer of ownership will be shifted from the border between Ukraine and European countries to the Russia-Ukraine border. Thirdly, legally, a different country will be considered the country of origin of Russian gas. Gazprom will then sell the corresponding volume of gas on the domestic market.
