Russia stops gas transit through Ukraine

According to RIA Novosti, data from the GTS Operator of Ukraine (OGTSU) said that applications for Russian gas transit through Ukraine have dropped to zero since January 1, 2025.

Previously, on December 31, 2024, Gazprom reported on the supply of green fuel through Sudzha GIS with a volume confirmed by Ukraine of 37.2 million cubic meters as of December 31. This is the last day the agreement with Ukraine's Naftogas on gas transit is in effect.

According to the document, deliveries under the contract will end at 8:00 a.m. on January 1, 2025 (Moscow time). The Ukrainian authorities have previously stated several times that they have no plans to extend the agreement.

Over the past year, Gazprom has supplied about 15.5 billion cubic meters of gas via this route, accounting for about 4.5% of total consumption in Europe. Moldova and four EU countries receive gas via this transit route: Slovakia, Austria, Italy and the Czech Republic.

Experts warn that the suspension of deliveries risks increasing gas prices and causing local imbalances in the European gas market.

If supplies through Ukraine are stopped, Russia's only source of gas to Europeans will remain Balkan Stream, which receives fuel from Turkish Stream. This stream supplies about 14-15 billion cubic meters of gas annually to Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary.

However, European countries can continue to receive gas transiting through Ukraine without a new agreement between Moscow and Kiev. To maintain transit, experts have named three possible scenarios.

Firstly, the general conditions for transit and transfer of gas ownership remain unchanged. However, it will not be Gazprom that registers the capacity, but a legally unrelated company from Europe. Secondly, the point of transfer of ownership is moved from the border of Ukraine and European countries to the Russian-Ukrainian border. Thirdly, legally another country will be considered the country of origin of Russian gas. Gazprom will then sell the corresponding volume of gas on the domestic market.