Russia - USA:
The nuclear red line is being challenged.

This order comes just days after U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial announcement that Washington would resume testing. The world is facing the risk of an escalating arms race, potentially breaking down the nuclear restraint that has been maintained for more than three decades.

An order from the Kremlin.

At a meeting of the Russian Security Council on November 5th, President Vladimir Putin officially assigned tasks to the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry, and special services. According to sources, Putin instructed these agencies to "do everything possible to gather more information on this issue, analyze it at the Security Council, and make coordinated proposals on the possibility of beginning preparatory work for nuclear weapons testing."

However, the Russian leader also emphasized a "defensive" stance. He asserted that Russia "has always strictly adhered to... its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and has no plans to deviate." Putin stressed that Moscow would only act in "proportionate response" if Washington conducted nuclear tests first.

Putin's move comes amid rapidly deteriorating Russia-US relations in recent weeks. President Trump, reportedly frustrated by the lack of progress in ending the conflict in Ukraine, has canceled a planned summit with Putin and imposed new sanctions on Russia since returning to the White House in January.

Moscow's reaction stemmed directly from President Donald Trump's statement on October 30th. Just hours after President Putin announced Russia's successful test of the Poseidon nuclear torpedo, Trump stated on social media that he had instructed the Pentagon to "begin testing our nuclear weapons on a fair basis" with Russia and China. This statement immediately raised global alarm, as the U.S. had not conducted a nuclear test since 1992. However, the crux of the matter lies in the serious ambiguity of Trump's statement. News reports did not clarify whether he was referring to tests involving detonation – which are prohibited by international treaties – or simply tests of launch systems, such as ballistic missiles, which are conducted regularly. Some Western sources have noted that U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright appeared to have clarified on November 3rd that the new tests ordered by Trump would not include nuclear explosions. Nevertheless, for Moscow, this ambiguity, coupled with recent military moves by Washington, was enough to trigger a high-level response.

The 30-year line is being tested.

The meeting of the Russian Security Council saw tough, seemingly well-prepared statements. State Duma (Lower House) Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin questioned how Moscow would respond to Trump's plans, sparking a series of subsequent remarks. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov reported to Putin that recent US actions and statements had "significantly increased the level of military threat to Russia." Belousov suggested that "preparations for full-scale nuclear tests" should begin immediately. He also stressed that Russia's Novaya Zemlya test site in the Arctic could be ready for such tests in a short time. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov also urged swift action. "If we do not take appropriate measures now," Gerasimov warned, "time and opportunity to respond promptly to US actions will be lost." He explained that the time required to prepare for nuclear tests, depending on the type, ranges from "a few months to a few years." These statements suggest pressure or a consensus within the Russian military leadership on the need to take a firm stance.

If any nuclear power were to resume test launches, it would be a seriously destabilizing geopolitical move. Since the beginning of the 21st century, only North Korea has conducted nuclear tests (the most recent being in 2017). Major nuclear powers have exercised restraint for decades: the Soviet Union (and later Russia) has not tested nuclear since 1990; the US has also maintained its test ban since 1992. These restraints are based on the spirit of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), although its legal standing remains fragile. The US has signed but not ratified the CTBT in its Senate. For its part, in 2023, President Putin signed legislation withdrawing Russia's ratification of the treaty, citing the need to ensure "equal footing" with the US. Analysts see this as the culmination of a "cycle of action-reaction." Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior research fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Studies (UNIDIR), commented on social media platform X: "Nobody needs this, but we may be heading towards it."

To counterbalance the tough rhetoric, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov clarified to the press that President Putin had not set a specific deadline for the proposals. Speaking to CNN, Peskov said: "Nothing has been decided yet... We are only investigating whether it is necessary to begin preparations." This statement suggests that Moscow, while preparing for the worst-case scenario, is still leaving the door open and awaiting official clarification from Washington regarding President Trump's true intentions. Meanwhile, the red line on nuclear testing – one of the last remaining pillars of the post-Cold War global security structure – is being tested more severely than it has been in 30 years.