Russia advances in Kursk, threatening to counterbalance Ukraine's sole territorial bargaining

According to CNN, military bloggers from both sides said Ukraine was on the back foot; while the Ukrainian military said Russian forces used a gas pipeline to launch a surprise raid on an area. The Russian defense ministry said on March 9 that its forces had captured four settlements in a matter of days.

Ukraine launched a surprise attack on the Russian territory of Kursk in August 2024. In addition to seizing lands that could be exchanged for Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine, the operation was also aimed at diverting Russian resources away from the front lines in the east.

But since then, Ukraine has struggled to hold on to the territory it controls in Kursk and faces a fundamentally changed diplomatic landscape, as US President Donald Trump pressures Kiev to sign a peace deal, by halting all US military aid and intelligence sharing.

The Russian Defense Ministry said on March 9 that the military had recaptured the settlements of Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Kositsa from Ukrainian forces.

“The lid of the smoke pot is almost closed,” Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said on March 9 about Russia’s advances in Kursk. “The offensive continues. On!”

Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers warn that Ukrainian forces' control of the region is more fragile than ever.

Strengthening gas pipeline monitoring

Latest reports suggest Russia is targeting Sudzha, a border town, in an attempt to cut off a vital logistical supply route for Ukrainian forces inside Kursk.

Yuriy Butusov, a Ukrainian military blogger, said Russian forces entered Sudzha on March 8 via a gas pipeline.

“The Russians used the gas pipeline to deploy an assault company without being detected by drones and penetrate our combat formations,” wrote blogger Butusov. He added that the pipeline is now under increased surveillance and Russian troops at the pipelines are being “destroyed.”

However, blogger Butusov warned that Russian troops in the Kursk region have a “significant advantage in strength” and are “continuously attacking.” In addition, some 12,000 North Korean troops are believed to have been deployed to Kursk, and their presence has reinforced Russia’s offensive operations within its borders. If Russia retakes all of Kursk, it will likely pour manpower into eastern Ukraine.

An unofficial Russian military blogger made a similar report in the town of Sudzha, claiming that around 100 Russian soldiers had infiltrated the settlements, after sneaking in through the pipeline – a move he said was possible after Ukraine cuts off Russian gas supplies to the European Union via Ukraine starting January 1, 2025.

The Ukrainian military said on Telegram that Russian forces had gained a “foothold” on the outskirts of Sudzha, adding: “Currently, Russian special forces are being identified, stopped and destroyed. The enemy’s losses in the Sudzha area are significant.”

Serious logistical situation

According to Yuriy Kotenok, a Russian military blogger, Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions. “Every move of the enemy in this area is detected by our drones and the enemy’s personnel and equipment are attacked,” he wrote on Telegram.

Blogger Kotenok also said that there was information that Ukraine would withdraw troops from the Kursk region, "based on the current situation".

The logistical situation “is already very serious,” said Ukrainian blogger Sternenko. Another challenge, Sternenko said, is poor road conditions. With warmer temperatures in the spring, the ground ice will melt, making roads more muddy. “All these circumstances are very favorable for the Russians,” he added.

Kiev’s fear is that Russian interests could cut off supplies to Ukrainian troops in Kursk. In a critical report last month, the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitoring group, estimated that Ukraine had as many as 30,000 troops stationed in the region.

Ukraine has lost about half of the territory it once occupied in Kursk.

Given Russia's achievements, some Ukrainian bloggers have suggested that the Kursk offensive may have lost its strategic value.

Many believe that it is time to “close the door” from the Kursk direction. The justification for this offensive operation – the diversion of Russian resources, a political bargaining chip – now becomes questionable.