Russia and China conduct unprecedented military exercises: A nightmare for the US?

On September 11, Russia began conducting its largest military exercise since the Cold War in its far east. China was also invited to participate in the exercise. Many observers believe that this is evidence of close cooperation between Russia and China, and this cooperation is likely to make the US "restless".

Vostok-2018 is unprecedented in scale

Several Russian military units, including the Pacific and Northern Fleets, are taking part in the Vostok exercises, which will run from September 11 to 17. The exercises are expected to surpass the largest Soviet exercise ever held in 1981. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, about 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft, 36,000 combat vehicles and 80 ships will participate in the exercises.

Speaking to DW, Gustav Gressel, an expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said that Russia's military exercises take place "in different strategic directions" every year, sometimes in the south, sometimes in the west or east. The Vostok exercise is part of this maneuver plan.

The large scale of the Vostok-2018 exercise is not surprising, said Sarah Pagung, an expert at the German Federal Council for Foreign Policy (DGAP). “Exercises in the East are usually larger than in the West because, according to a Cold War-era agreement called the Vienna Document, Russia is required to limit the number of troops in the West. However, this does not apply to the East.”

“Looking at the way and the number of troops deployed, it is clear that Russia is preparing for a new world war,” said Mr. Pagung. According to this observer, forces in Russia’s west have also been mobilized.

The Vienna Document on Normative Armed Forces of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), of which Russia is a member, was adopted in 1990 and last revised in 2011. It sets out confidence-building and security measures for member states, limiting the deployment of troops in Russia's western regions.

Why did Russia invite China to participate?

Military experts have paid special attention to China’s participation in the Vostok-2018 exercises, which are limited to just 3,000 troops along with many helicopters and fighter jets. Russia and China have conducted joint exercises about 30 times since 2013, but this is the first time China has participated in joint exercises with Russia at such a strategic level. This is surprising because Russia has previously reserved this privilege for its close allies, such as Belarus, which participated in the Zapad 2017 exercises in the west of Russia.

Soldiers of Russia's Southern Military District. Photo: Sputnik

Speaking to the National Interest, Michael Kofman, a Russian military expert at the Center for Naval Analyses, said that one of the reasons Russia invited China to participate in the Vostok-2018 exercise was to dispel Beijing’s suspicions that the exercise was directly targeting China. “They (Russia) had to invite China to participate to prove that this is not an exercise against China. The best way to dispel the distrust between the two powers is to include China in the exercise.”

Xinhua News Agency quoted the Chinese Ministry of National Defense as saying: “The exercise aims to consolidate and develop the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia, enhance cooperation between the two militaries, promote joint cooperation capabilities against security threats, and contribute to ensuring regional security and peace. This exercise is not aimed at any third party.”

Analyst Gustav Gressel said that China has always wanted to be invited to participate in Russia’s core strategic exercises, not just limited to security force training or counter-terrorism cooperation. In 2018, this wish came true. China has many modern weapons, but still lags behind Russia in terms of training soldiers, mobilizing, deploying and commanding troops.

According to Mr. Gustav Gressel, China also wants to learn from Russia's combat experience in Syria or Ukraine. China's goal is to train officers with experience and skills equal to their Russian counterparts. "This is part of China's innovation in military training, wanting to introduce soldiers to new combat techniques in the information age."

Nightmare for America?

Russian President Vladimir Putin will inspect the exercise. Photo: AP

Closer military cooperation between Russia and China is a "nightmare" for the US, Gressel said. Economic and military cooperation between Russia and China has been growing over time. "For the Russian leadership, security is regime protection," Gressel said. Russia has always seen the US and the West as its main rivals, and the influence of Western culture as a threat. Although China may pose a greater military threat to Russia, Gressel said it does not threaten Russia's stability in the same way the US and the West do.

"China is therefore not a strategic rival. The strategic rival has always been the West," he said.

However, analyst Sarah Pagung disagreed with Gressel's view. "It's clearly a show of force by Russia against the US and to show that Russia is a superpower. Exercises like this are completely normal for great powers."