Russia and Ukraine deadlocked after nearly a year of conflict, the West 'disillusioned'

The war continues, and there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel. Neither side has made any major breakthroughs that could change the course of the conflict, or expressed a willingness to negotiate. Both sides have repeatedly stated that they will not accept territorial concessions in a future peace deal with Russia. For President Putin, compromise seems to be out of the question after he has staked his economic and political power on this game. Russia appears to be prepared for a protracted conflict.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains deadlocked after nearly a year. Source: Washington Post

Correlation of resources between two sides

If the conflict continues, Russia appears to have the upper hand. In 2021, before the fighting began, Russia’s GDP was nine times larger than Ukraine’s. After contracting by 2 to 4 percent in 2022, the Russian economy is expected to grow again in 2023.

Unprecedented Western sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, hampering its long-term growth prospects. But Moscow has found ways to adapt, including by finding alternative supply chains and improving its technology. It has also sold record volumes of oil to India and China, while also finding new customers.

Before the conflict, Russia’s population was three times larger than Ukraine’s. Moreover, Russia’s territory was not threatened by fighting like the one between government forces and separatists in eastern Ukraine that erupted in 2014. Russia’s defense factories were operating almost full-time. President Putin also pledged to spend a significant amount of defense money on equipping the military.

In contrast, Ukraine is heavily dependent on the European Union (EU) and NATO for its defense capabilities. Despite its efforts, the country’s military’s combat capabilities are still largely dependent on Western financial and military support. Fierce fighting has severely damaged Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine’s GDP is estimated to shrink by a third by 2022. Reconstruction costs are expected to exceed $1 trillion. Millions of Ukrainians have fled their homes, and many of them may not return.

Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered heavy human losses. According to a report published in January, the number of casualties on the Ukrainian side is around 100,000. Considering the size of the population, this is a huge disadvantage for Kiev. This is also recognized by Western countries.

The US and Europe have provided Ukraine with a large amount of military aid over the past 12 months, from drones and artillery shells to tanks and target coordinates, intelligence information... The number of weapons Ukraine receives from the West is increasing and becoming more sophisticated. The West hopes this will help Kiev create a decisive breakthrough in the conflict. However, up to now, Ukraine has not achieved significant victories on the battlefield.

What happens next?

The next phase of the conflict is expected to be very difficult for Ukraine. Offense is always more challenging than defense. But military analysts say Ukraine will have to launch a major offensive if it wants to gain an advantage over a Russian military that has had time to rebuild its forces over the summer and fall of 2022.

Many reports show that Ukraine is facing a serious shortage of artillery shells and this is a major obstacle when Ukraine wants to launch a major offensive in the southern region.

Over the past year, there has been much speculation about Russia’s red lines, and what actions Ukraine or the West might take to cross them. From the sinking of the Moscow flagship, to the explosion on the Crimean bridge, to attacks inside Russian territory… all have sparked debate about Russia’s red lines.

No one can predict what might prompt President Putin to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Because Putin knows better than anyone the serious consequences of such a move, in which NATO scenarios call for a direct military response. But if a situation were to force him to use these weapons, the leading speculation is still the prospect of Ukraine attacking to regain control of Crimea.

The West has no choice.

It is difficult to conclude that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is actually beneficial to the United States and Europe, according to analysts. The economy is in crisis, fuel prices are high, inflation is high and the arsenal is gradually depleted. As the conflict is about to enter its second year, the West seems to have no choice but to continue to "pump" weapons into Ukraine in the hope that Kiev will turn the tide.

With neither Russia nor Ukraine willing to compromise, it remains unclear whether the West can continue to provide Kiev with the same level of aid as the conflict drags on. After repeatedly promising to “assist Ukraine in any way we can,” the United States and its allies appear to have accepted that their interests and goals are not aligned with Ukraine’s.

Analysts say the Russia-Ukraine conflict could end in three scenarios: Russia wins, Ukraine wins, or both sides fall into a stalemate. The first scenario could lead to the risk of military confrontation with NATO and Russia because the prospect of Moscow gaining an advantage on the battlefield could make NATO ready to respond to calls for direct intervention to support Ukraine. The second scenario could lead to a nuclear conflict, while the third scenario would lead to a prolonged conflict similar to the situation on the Korean Peninsula./.