On the first day of August, gasoline prices will continue to decrease for the fourth time.

According to the schedule, on August 1, the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade will adjustgasoline pricescyclical

Updated data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that the price of finished petroleum products in the Singapore market in this management period has increased again compared to the previous pricing period (July 21).

Specifically, the average price of RON 92 gasoline (used to blend E5 RON 92 gasoline) in the Singapore market is 114.6 USD/barrel, and the price of RON 95 gasoline is 117.5 USD/barrel. Meanwhile, in the previous management period, the average price of RON92 gasoline was 112.8 USD/barrel, and the price of RON95 gasoline was 116 USD/barrel. Thus, the price of finished gasoline in the Singapore market in this management period has increased by nearly 2 USD/barrel compared to the previous cycle.

Similarly, the prices of the above oilsmarketSingapore also has an upward trend in this operating period. The average price of diesel in this cycle is 130.5 USD/barrel, while in the previous cycle it was 130.4 USD/barrel.

In the world market, crude oil prices have been on the rise again in recent days. According to data from Oilprice, at 4:30 p.m. on July 30 (Vietnam time), Brent crude oil for September delivery was trading at $107/barrel, up $2.14, or 2.1%, compared to yesterday. At the same time, WTI light sweet crude oil for August delivery was trading at $98.62/barrel, up 2.28% compared to yesterday.

Gasoline prices may continue to fall. Photo: Hoang Ha

According to analysts, oil prices have increased since July 29 after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced to keep the interest rate increase at 0.75% in the context of inflation not cooling down. The Fed's cautious attitude about raising interest rates has weakened the USD, affecting oil prices.

Besides, the main reason for the high oil price is still the lack of optimistic signs in oil supply.ReutersOPEC+ is unlikely to increase output in September at the group's meeting next week despite lobbying efforts from the US to increase oil supply, sources said.

In addition, the crude oil market is also under pressure due to concerns about an economic recession. The US Department of Commerce said that GDP in the second quarter of 2022 continued to record negative growth of 0.9% compared to the same period in 2021.

Furthermore, the continued tightening of Russian gas supplies to Europe has forced many countries to seek alternative energy sources. The amount of gas flowing through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has dropped to 33 million m³/day on the evening of July 27 (Vietnam time).

Pressure on supply combined with a weakening US dollar caused world oil prices to rise again.

Due to the increasing trend of world gasoline and oil prices, domestic retail gasoline and oil prices at the August 1 adjustment period are forecast to increase following world gasoline and oil prices.

Leading somepetroleum trading enterpriseAccording to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the domestic retail price of gasoline is about 208-343 VND/liter higher than the average price of finished gasoline in the Singapore market. The domestic price of diesel and kerosene is also about 632-847 VND/liter higher than the Singapore market.

Therefore, in the operating period on August 1, if the management agency does not deduct from the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund, the reduction will be equivalent to the difference. Accordingly, the gasoline price may decrease by about 210-340 VND/liter, and the oil price may decrease by 630-850 VND/liter.

However, this reduction depends on the allocation of the Gasoline and Oil Price Stabilization Fund. If the management agency spends a lot on the Stabilization Fund, domestic gasoline and oil prices on August 1 will only decrease very slightly.

If the forecast is correct, domestic gasoline prices will have their fourth consecutive decrease. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have undergone 19 price adjustments, including 13 increases and 6 decreases.

In the most recent adjustment period (July 21), the price of E5 gasoline decreased by VND2,710/liter, to VND25,070/liter; the price of RON95 gasoline decreased by VND3,600/liter, the retail price was VND26,070/liter. The price of diesel oil decreased by VND1,740/liter, to VND24,850/liter; the price of kerosene decreased by VND1,099/liter, to VND25,246/liter; mazut oil decreased by VND1,164/kg, the selling price was not higher than VND16,548/kg.