People in Nghe An take advantage of the price drop to buy gold.
After surpassing the 100.4 million VND/ounce mark, gold prices reversed sharply downwards, prompting people in Nghe An to decide to "buy at the bottom" by investing and hoarding gold.
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During the week, gold prices fluctuated wildly, reaching a record high, surpassing the 100 million VND/ounce mark. The highest price reached 100.4 million VND/ounce before reversing and falling again. By the end of the week, gold prices had dropped by nearly 3 million VND/ounce, demonstrating the market's significant volatility.
Not only gold bars, but also the prices of gold rings and 99.99% pure gold jewelry experienced a volatile week, peaking above 100 million VND/ounce before falling. By the end of the week, businesses listed gold rings at around 94.3 million VND/ounce for buying and 97 million VND/ounce for selling. Compared to their record highs, both SJC gold bars and gold rings decreased by approximately 3-3.5 million VND/ounce.
In Nghe An province, at the close of trading this week, the price of gold rings was listed around 93.80 – 94 million VND/ounce (buying price) and 97.80 – 98 million VND/ounce (selling price). Compared to the peak price this week, the price of gold has decreased by 3-3.5 million VND/ounce (buying price) and 3.5-4 million VND/ounce (selling price).
According to observations, when gold prices reversed and started to fall, the number of transactions on the selling side at gold shops increased sharply. Ms. Nguyet Cuong, the owner of a gold shop on Le Loi Street in Vinh City, said: “When gold prices showed signs of a slight decrease from the afternoon of March 20th (down 500,000-700,000 VND/ounce), the number of people coming to buy gold began to increase. Especially yesterday, when gold prices plummeted, falling by 3-4 million VND/ounce, gold transactions became very active on the selling side.”
According to gold shop owners, although gold prices have fallen from their historical peak, they remain high. However, people are still investing in gold without hesitation for two reasons. Firstly, forecasts indicate that gold prices will continue to rise sharply in the short term; secondly, the demand for gold as an investment is quite high during this period; and thirdly, there is the FOMO effect – the fear of missing out – so when gold prices fall, people rush to buy gold.
Ms. Trinh Thi Khanh H., a gold buyer residing in Dai Dong commune (Thanh Chuong district), said: “I have spare cash and intended to buy gold for hoarding, but the price of gold was too high and kept rising last week, so I didn't dare to invest. Now that the price has dropped, I decided to buy all the gold I have available, because if I miss this drop, the price will rise again, and then it will be difficult to buy. Just like when gold was at its peak, in big cities, people crowded to buy gold, and gold shops were selling very little.”
Unlike Ms. H., Mr. Hoang Minh H. (Hung Dung Ward, Vinh City), an experienced gold investor, believes that despite the sharp drop, the price of gold has still increased by 1.6 million VND/ounce (selling price) compared to the closing price of last week's trading session (March 16th). Meanwhile, the buying price of gold has only increased by 100,000 VND/ounce, resulting in a fairly high difference between selling and buying prices, reaching 3-3.5 million VND/ounce. Therefore, investing at this time carries significant risk.
"If buying gold is a long-term, recurring plan, then this dip might still be worth considering. However, if you're buying for short-term investment, it's definitely not advisable. If you have a large amount of capital and are concerned about a sharp increase in gold prices in the near future, you can divide that capital into smaller amounts to buy gold in multiple installments to mitigate risk."
According to expert forecasts, the price of gold will continue to rise in the near future. Investors expect gold to reach the target of $3,400 per ounce in the next few months.
Furthermore, many believe that the price of gold will fall below $3,000 per ounce at least once before a new surge. Therefore, people deciding to invest in gold need to carefully research data and analyses from experts, and clearly define their investment goals.
3 scenarios predicting a potential gold price plunge.
Associate Professor Tran Viet Dung and the macroeconomic research team of the Institute of Banking Science Research (Banking Academy) have presented three scenarios for forecasting gold prices in 2025.
Base scenario,In a scenario where the global economy gradually stabilizes, geopolitical tensions do not escalate significantly, and major central banks maintain cautious monetary policies, international gold prices are expected to rise within a narrow range.
Accordingly, domestic gold prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend in 2025 due to the influence of world gold prices and domestic demand. However, strict control policies by the Government and the State Bank will help limit speculation and stabilize the market.
A sharp increase scenarioThis occurs when several factors drive the gold market, which may include: a sudden surge in world gold prices to $3,200-$3,300 per ounce due to geopolitical instability or excessively loose monetary policies from central banks; a sharp weakening of the US dollar; higher-than-expected inflation in Vietnam, boosting demand for gold accumulation among the population; and other investment channels such as stocks and real estate becoming less attractive, leading to a strong influx of capital into gold.
Downside scenarioWhen world gold prices fall to $2,500-$2,600 per ounce due to the rapid recovery of major economies and central banks prioritizing tight monetary policies; or when the US dollar appreciates sharply, leading to an increase in the USD/VND exchange rate, reducing international and domestic demand for gold.
At the same time, domestic interest rates rose more sharply than expected, thus drawing money back into bank savings accounts and reducing demand for gold investment.
In that case, domestic gold prices could fall to 72-80 million VND/ounce and potentially even lower if domestic demand for hoarding and investment decreases sharply.
