Nghe An people take advantage of the price drop to buy gold
After surpassing the 100.4 million VND/tael mark, gold prices turned to drop sharply, Nghe An people decided to "buy the bottom" and spend money to buy gold for investment and storage.
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During the week, gold prices fluctuated violently when they reached a record peak, surpassing the 100 million VND/tael mark. The highest price of gold reached 100.4 million VND/tael before reversing and decreasing again. At the end of the week, gold prices lost nearly 3 million VND/tael, showing strong fluctuations in the market.
Not only gold bars, the prices of gold rings and 99.99 gold jewelry of all kinds also had a week of strong fluctuations when they reached a peak of over 100 million VND/tael and then turned down. At the end of the week, businesses listed the price of gold rings at around 94.3 million VND/tael for buying and 97 million VND/tael for selling. Compared to the record peak, both the prices of SJC gold bars and gold rings decreased by about 3-3.5 million VND/tael.
In Nghe An, at the end of this week's trading session, the price of gold rings was listed at around VND93.80 - 94 million/tael (buy) and VND97.80 - 98 million/tael (sell). Compared to the peak price of the week, the price of gold has decreased by VND3-3.5 million/tael (buy) and VND3.5-4 million/tael (sell).
According to records, when the gold price turned down, the number of transactions on the selling side at gold shops increased sharply. Ms. Nguyet Cuong, owner of a gold shop on Le Loi Street, Vinh City, said: "When the gold price showed signs of a slight decrease from the afternoon of March 20 (down 500,000-700,000 VND/tael), the number of people coming to buy gold began to increase. In particular, yesterday, when the gold price "plummeted", down 3-4 million VND/tael, gold transactions became more active on the selling side."
According to gold shop owners, although the gold price has left the historical peak, it is still at a high level. However, people still do not hesitate to invest in gold for two reasons. First, according to forecasts, the gold price will continue to increase sharply in the short term; Second, the demand for gold for storage during this period is quite high; Third, the fomo effect - the fear of missing out, so when the gold price drops, people rush to buy gold.
Ms. Trinh Thi Khanh H., a gold buyer residing in Dai Dong commune (Thanh Chuong) said: “I have idle money and plan to buy gold for storage, but last week the gold price was too high and kept increasing, so I didn’t dare to spend money. Now that the gold price has decreased, I decided to buy all the gold with the money I have, because if I ignore this decrease, gold will increase, and then it will be difficult to buy. When gold reached its peak, in big cities, people crowded to buy gold, and gold shops sold only a few drops.”
Unlike Ms. H., Mr. Hoang Minh H. (Hung Dung Ward, Vinh City), an experienced person in investing in gold, said that although it decreased sharply, compared to the closing price of the previous week (March 16), the gold price still increased by 1.6 million VND/tael (selling price), while the gold buying price only increased by 100,000 VND/tael, the difference between selling and buying is quite high, up to 3-3.5 million VND/tael, so if you spend money at this time, it is very risky.
“If buying gold is a regular, long-term plan, you can still invest in this decline. But if you buy it for short-term investment, you absolutely should not. If you have a large amount of capital and are worried that gold will increase sharply in the near future, you can divide that capital into many different purchases to limit risks.”
According to experts' forecasts, gold prices will continue to rise in the near future. Investors expect gold to reach the target of 3,400 USD/ounce in the next few months.
In addition, many people believe that the price of gold will fall below 3,000 USD/ounce at least once before a new breakthrough. Therefore, when deciding to invest in gold, people need to carefully study the data and analysis of experts, and at the same time, clearly define their gold investment goals.
3 scenarios forecast, gold price may plummet
Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Viet Dung and the macro research team of the Banking Science Research Institute (Banking Academy) proposed 3 scenarios to forecast gold prices in 2025.
Baseline scenario,In the scenario where the global economy gradually stabilizes, geopolitical tensions do not fluctuate significantly, major central banks maintain prudent monetary policies, international gold prices are expected to increase within a narrow range.
Accordingly, domestic gold prices will also maintain a slight upward trend in 2025 due to the influence of world gold prices and domestic demand. However, strict control policies of the Government and the State Bank will help limit speculation and stabilize the market.
Strong growth scenariooccurs when a number of factors that boost the gold market may include: the world gold price suddenly increases to 3,200 - 3,300 USD/ounce due to geopolitical instability or excessively loose monetary policy from central banks; the USD weakens sharply; inflation in Vietnam increases higher than expected, promoting people's demand for gold accumulation; other investment channels such as stocks and real estate become less attractive, cash flows strongly into gold.
Downside scenarioWhen the world gold price drops to 2,500 - 2,600 USD/ounce due to the rapid recovery of major economies, central banks prioritize tight monetary policies; or the USD appreciates strongly, causing the USD/VND exchange rate to increase, reducing international and domestic gold demand.
Along with that, domestic interest rates increased more strongly than expected, thus pulling cash flow back into bank savings channels and reducing demand for gold investment.
At that time, domestic gold prices could fall to 72 - 80 million VND/tael and could potentially fall lower in case domestic demand for storage and investment decreases sharply.
