Danger threshold as Türkiye pushes the situation up in Idlib (Syria)

Türkiye’s move is pushing the conflict in Idlib to a dangerous new level, as everyone understands that behind the Syrian government is Russia. In a proxy war like the one in Syria, once the “main player” has to show up for direct confrontation, it will be an extremely unpredictable scenario.

"Words are like the wind"

On February 29, both Russia and Türkiye announced a consultation between diplomats from both countries in Ankara, Türkiye. Representatives from both sides affirmed the goal of reducing tensions in Idlib, Syria.

However, February 29 is also the deadline set by Türkiye for Syrian government forces to withdraw from its checkpoints in Idlib. When this request was not met, all the commitments of diplomats were just "windy words".

The Syrian National Liberation Forces fire rockets at government troops. Photo: The Guardian

A day later, Turkish drones bombed Syrian government targets in Idlib, killing 19 soldiers, Turkish fighter jets shot down two Syrian Su-24 aircraft, and Turkish-backed rebel forces shelled Syrian army positions.

Fighting has broken out fiercely near the strategic town of Saraqeb - a town located on the Damascus - Aleppo highway and has had to "change hands" continuously between the two sides in recent months. Turkey also officially confirmed the launch of the military operation called Spring Shield, and this is the fourth time Turkey has launched a large-scale military operation in Syria since 2016. During this operation, Türkiye "neutralized" more than 103 tanks, 8 helicopters and more than 2,200 Syrian soldiers.

Türkiye’s decision to “intensify” Idlib stems from the strategic calculations of President Tayip Erdogan. Türkiye has long been the main patron of Syrian opposition forces in Idlib, as this is Turkey’s security buffer zone within Syrian territory, reducing the security threat and the risk of attacks by Syrian Kurdish forces and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which Turkey considers terrorists.

Syrian military forces confirmed that two fighter jets were shot down. Photo: Euro Post

But the recent attacks by the Syrian government forces with the support of Russia have put Türkiye at risk of being “pushed out” of Idlib, “bankrupting” Turkey’s long-term calculations in Syria, affecting Turkey’s ability to compete for influence in any political solution in post-war Syria. Therefore, the death of 33 Turkish soldiers in an attack on February 27 has become the “perfect excuse” for Turkey to launch its fourth major military operation in Syria.

All the information from Idlib reported so far only shows the losses of the Syrian government forces. Perhaps Türkiye has actively "avoided" Russian targets in this strategic town, as Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar asserted that Turkey's goal is to confront Syrian government forces, not directly clash with the Russian army.

But according to analysts, Türkiye's calculations are pushing the situation in Idlib to a dangerous level, because Russia certainly does not let the Syrian government forces continuously "suffer" from the enemy's attacks. Russian military advisers even compared Turkey's airstrikes targeting Syrian soldiers to Turkish fighter jets firing missiles at Russian planes in 2015 - triggering a serious diplomatic crisis between the two countries.

Many buildings in Idlib were bombarded. Photo: DW

"Break" of Russia-Turkey strategic interests

Türkiye's current calculation is to avoid direct clashes with the Russian army while protecting its strategic interests in Idlib. However, this is an unfeasible calculation, because the recapture of Idlib is of particular importance to the Syrian government, while Russia is a staunch supporter of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad.

Victory in Idlib would not only complete the Syrian government’s goal of unifying the country, but also mean control of most of the country’s oil resources. It is therefore not surprising that Russia has sided with the Syrian government and accused Turkey of escalating tensions in Idlib, while criticizing Turkey for not fulfilling its commitment made in Sochi to separate Syrian opposition forces from terrorist groups. Russia has also warned that it will not guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft in Syria – a warning that Russia has repeatedly proven to be “word-for-word.”

After a period of working together to find solutions to the conflict in Syria, recent dangerous developments in Idlib show that the convergence of strategic interests between Russia and Türkiye is gradually breaking down. With Operation Spring Shield, Türkiye has pushed the situation in Idlib to a dangerous level with the risk of direct confrontation between the “main players” in the proxy war in Syria.

Turkish soldiers at an observation post in Idlib province (Syria) on February 14. Photo: AFP

Accordingly, a possible next scenario is that Türkiye seeks NATO's help by activating Article 5 of the NATO Treaty on the protection of members within the bloc, so that NATO can deter Russia and "ask" Russia to restrain the Syrian government from continuing to "encroach" in Idlib. At that time, the problem between Türkiye and Syria will become a problem between NATO and Russia.

However, up to this point, NATO has not sent any signal about helping Türkiye. Because, at this time, Türkiye does not possess a card strong enough to put pressure on NATO, while confronting Russia has never been an easy problem for this military bloc, right from the unification of views among members in the bloc. And without NATO, Turkey of course does not have enough potential to confront Russia. The rapid de-escalation of President Tayip Erdogan in 2015 after shooting down a Russian plane is certainly a lesson that Türkiye cannot forget.

Turkish President Tayip Erdogan is expected to meet with Russian President Putin on March 5 or 6 in Moscow, Russia. Analysts say this is an opportunity to reach a diplomatic solution to the Idlib issue. The important thing is whether Türkiye wants to seize that opportunity or not.

Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan are expected to meet on March 5 or 6. Photo: Al Jazeera

In terms of strategic interests in Idlib, Russia’s interests are much larger and clearer than Türkiye’s. In terms of the Syrian strategic chessboard, Russia is also the party with much more decision-making power than Turkey. In terms of tactics of applying pressure on the ground to create an advantage at the negotiating table, Russia is also an extremely excellent player… Those will be the factors that Mr. Tayip Erdogan will have to consider when meeting with Mr. Vladimir Putin, to avoid pushing Türkiye into a “dilemma” as happened in 2015.