Possible scenarios for the crisis in Ukraine
Russia's military campaign in Ukraine has led to a crisis – not only for Kiev but also for the Kremlin.
While the Russian army advanced towards Kiev,European UnionThe EU and the US have responded with strong financial sanctions that could paralyze the Russian economy and push inflation up.
The Atlantic newspaper quoted Paul Poast, Professor of Foreign Policy and War at the University of Chicago (USA), pointing out the prospects for the crisis in Ukraine. That is: A catastrophic quagmire and Russia will withdraw; regime change in Kiev; a complete occupation of Ukraine; chaos like World War III...
Professor Poast also discusses the factors that will shape the crises, the US response to President Vladimir Putin and key developments that could happen in the coming week.
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| Russia's military campaign in Ukraine shows no signs of abating. Photo: AP |
In the first scenario, Russia’s military campaign quickly becomes a quagmire. Russia sees a wave of anti-war protests, even from prominent figures. Stock markets plummet. The ruble falls, and the pain is acute as sanctions begin to bite into Russian businesses and oligarchs.
The Ukrainians will defend their country. They may have more incentive to fight than the Russians. All of this will slow Russia down, and may force President Putin to reassess the campaign and back down.
The second scenario is a regime change in Kiev. President Volodymyr Zelensky is overthrown or goes into exile, and a pro-Russian government is established.
The third scenario is called “state death.” Professor Poast explains that this means a state no longer exists because it has been annexed or conquered, and is no longer independent. This means that Russia’s goal is not just to form a new government as in scenario 1, but to take over all of Ukraine and make it part of its own.
Finally, according to Mr. Poast, from Ukraine, Russia can act against the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). NATO is an alliance of many countries in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and the United States, and includes the Baltic states such as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
If this scenario were to occur, NATO would trigger Article 5, which states that any armed attack on one member of the alliance would be considered an attack on all. Other NATO countries would then come to the defense of the attacked country, leading to a war between Russia and NATO, and specifically between Russia and the United States.
The Russian Defense Ministry says nearly 500 of its soldiers have died in the ongoing military offensive in Ukraine.
