The biggest security challenges of 2019

A trilateral meeting may take place between US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Photo: AP

In late December 2018, US President Donald Trump revealed on his Twitter account his intention to hold a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to the White House owner, this meeting is to prevent the risk of a global arms race.

The first indication that this could happen is that the meeting could take place in January, as the US and China are negotiating to defuse the escalating tariff dispute. However, US allies and the international community are concerned that this could be a “grand bargain” in which Mr. Trump will listen to his most isolationist instincts.

European countries experienced a turbulent 2018 and this is expected to continue in 2019 when many events affect the political situation of this "Old Continent". According to experts, the resignation of US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who disagreed with President Trump on many policies and the idea of ​​protecting relations with strong allied countries, has dismayed European countries; and now the spirit of these countries has also "gone down" in the face of Mr. Trump's criticism that Europe contributes too little to the defense budget.

In addition, 2019 also marks the UK's departure from the European Union (EU), also known as Brexit, on March 29. If a "no deal" scenario with the EU is avoided, London will enter a transitional phase in this process.

France is also one of the security challenges on the European map as French President Emmanuel Macron faces increasing demands from the "Yellow Vest" protests, which have lasted for weeks in the country.

In addition, some other events also attracted attention such as: the European Parliament elections in May, which are considered a strong return of right-wing populist parties; the instability of German politics before Chancellor Angela Merkel's term ends; or Italy is currently considered the most vulnerable country in the Eurozone.

The place with the highest risk of escalation of conflict is Ukraine after Russia captured three naval vessels and their crews in the Black Sea last November, accusing Kiev of illegally entering Russian territorial waters, which Ukraine denied. In any case, the increased military presence of NATO countries and Russian forces in the area near the Black Sea is inevitable, especially ahead of the Ukrainian presidential election on March 31.

The situation in the East Sea in 2019 is forecast to remain complicated as China is likely to continue to make moves that increase tensions in the region. On the other hand, the US and many countries call on Beijing to respect freedom of navigation.

Analysts say 2019 will be a pivotal year for the conflicts in Yemen and Syria, especially after President Trump decided to withdraw all troops (about 2,000 soldiers) from Syria and stop supporting Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen. In Syria, the US withdrawal could lead to increased military activity by Turkey, as well as the government army, and lead to a dispute in the Kurdish region, a former US ally.

2019 will be a pivotal year for the conflict in Syria, especially after President Trump decided to withdraw all troops. Photo: Reuters

In Yemen, Saudi Arabia must decide whether to stick with a Western-backed peace process aimed at ending a war that threatens to drive millions into starvation, or continue its military campaign in the face of mounting international criticism.

The outcome of these two conflicts will shape much of the Middle East, which is caught up in a struggle for influence among several countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.

After unprecedented diplomatic breakthroughs in 2018 with historic summits between North Korea and South Korea and North Korea and the US, 2019 is considered a challenging year in resolving the North Korea issue.

So far, both Washington and Pyongyang have not agreed on a specific time for the next summit between President Trump and leader Kim Jong-un, while the Northeast Asian country seems to be dissatisfied with the US's demand for complete nuclear disarmament.

The situation in North Korea depends largely on the relationship between the US and China. If the world's two largest economies can de-escalate their trade war, China can maintain pressure to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula.

However, if the opposite happens, North Korea's return to nuclear weapons testing is inevitable and could lead to US military action and cause a wider war in the region./.