Moments at the negotiating table

The world diplomatic negotiating table continues to be a matter of public concern. There is progress and there is stagnation, but in general the basic trend of the diplomatic "village" is to ease the relationship between the parties that were once hostile.

The United States and Cuba: Continuing on the Path to Reunification

On Wednesday, July 1, US President Barack Obama officially announced from the White House that he had reached an agreement with Cuba to reopen embassies in both countries. This is considered another positive step on the path to normalization and re-establishment of diplomatic relations between the two longtime neighbors.

Meeting between US President Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro. Photo: Internet

The event was announced by an unidentified US official on Tuesday evening, June 30. The reopening of embassies is of great significance to diplomatic activities between the two sides, because the protection of the embassies will facilitate travel and diplomatic relations within the two countries' territories. Previously, if you wanted to move outside the capital, you had to go through a process and procedures to apply for a permit.

To reach agreement on reopening embassies in Washington and Havana, high-level delegations from both sides have met four times since last January, discussing specific terms. Before announcing the normalization of relations, the US and Cuba had been negotiating secretly for 18 months, with the support of Canada and the Vatican. Therefore, the two sides' public "travel" with such a high frequency is a signal that the "reconciliation" is still progressing well.

In Havana, unofficial sources revealed that the head of the negotiating delegation representing Raul Castro was none other than his son - Colonel Alejandro Castro Espin, who works at the Ministry of Interior, is responsible for coordination and connection with the armed forces and has just been appointed as national security advisor.

At the end of May, the last obstacles to reopening the embassies were removed when the US State Department announced that it would remove Cuba from the list of countries that support terrorism. This was considered an extremely great effort because most Republicans in the US Congress often expressed their disapproval of the foreign policy of President Obama - who has only 18 months left in his term. But perhaps this time, the owner of the White House has almost certainly taken the "chess game" with Cuba when the majority of Americans support the two countries "making peace" with each other. With that great support, Obama declared last December: "There is a complicated history between the United States and Cuba, but the time has come to turn a new page."

It’s not just a statement – ​​the decision to reopen embassies is the latest example, and certainly not the last. A visit by Mr Obama to Cuba in 2016 has been repeatedly mentioned by the White House, and Pope Francis – who was instrumental in the rapprochement – ​​is expected to visit in September.

Iran and the P5+1 group: the final bell has rung

The deadline for reaching a deal between Iran and the P5+1 group has been extended to July 7, next Tuesday, and it seems there are still too many issues to resolve…

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius will return to Vienna on Sunday evening for talks with his counterparts from the other P5+1 countries: the US, China, Russia, Britain and Germany. After a week of tense negotiations with Iran, a Western diplomat said: “We are very hopeful that we can reach a final conclusion in the coming days, but it is quite difficult. The closer we get to the end, the more difficult the problems we face.”

Indeed, delegations have sent conflicting signals over the past week about the talks aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear program and ensuring it cannot build a bomb. Russia’s chief diplomat, Sergei Riabkov, declared on Thursday evening, July 2, that a deal was near and that the final text was “91 percent complete.” The figure has raised eyebrows because of its surprising accuracy, given that public assessments of the progress of the negotiations are often vague.

Iran and the P5+1 group resumed nuclear negotiations in Vienna (Austria) on April 24, 2015. Photo: Internet

But on Friday, July 3, that optimism was almost extinguished by the announcement of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mr. Yukiya Amano, returning from a lightning mission to Tehran. He said that through his discussions with the Iranian government headed by President Hassan Rohani, there was “much more work” to be done to resolve the current outstanding issues.

In other words, there has been little significant progress in the negotiations, which have reached their final stages. One thing is almost certain: after 20 months of intense negotiations, which have already been extended twice, a third extension is unlikely. “If we don’t get anything done in the next few days, there’s no reason to think we can succeed in the next 10 or 15 days,” a source close to the negotiations stressed.

On the other hand, the July 7 deadline is really difficult to push back, because July 9 is the deadline for the White House to submit to the US Congress the final agreement text, thereby allowing the gradual lifting of sanctions against Tehran. It should be remembered that many US Congressmen do not support the agreement with Iran and if the July 9 deadline is missed, the review and approval process can be up to 60 days instead of 30 days. That is completely disadvantageous for the Obama administration, because the more time there is, the more opportunities opponents will have to hinder the negotiation process.

This scenario is certainly not what Europe wants. On Thursday, July 2, French Foreign Minister Fabius said that “things are moving forward” and expressed hope for a “permanent solution” to be agreed on Sunday evening. In fact, it is a difficult task, as there are still many gaps to be resolved on the basis of the framework agreement in Lausanne on April 2. The remaining questions of the dream deal revolve around the inspection and monitoring mechanism applied to Iran; the lifting of sanctions; and the response in case Iran violates the agreement.

Thuc Anh

(Le Monde)