Moments at the negotiating table

The world diplomatic negotiating table continues to be a source of public concern. There is progress and there is stagnation, but in general, the basic trend of the diplomatic "village" is to ease relations between formerly hostile parties.

America and Cuba: Continuing on the Path to Reunion

On Wednesday, July 1, US President Barack Obama officially announced from the White House that he had reached an agreement with Cuba to reopen embassies in both countries. This is considered another positive step on the path to normalizing and re-establishing diplomatic relations between these two longtime neighbors.

Meeting between US President Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro. Photo: Internet

The event was announced by an anonymous US official on Tuesday evening, June 30. The reopening of embassies is of great significance to diplomatic activities between the two sides, because the protection of the embassies will facilitate travel and diplomatic relations within the two countries' territories. Previously, if you wanted to move outside the capital, you had to go through a process and procedures to apply for a permit.

To reach agreements on reopening embassies in Washington and Havana, high-level delegations from both sides have met four times since January to discuss specific terms. Before announcing the normalization of relations, the US and Cuba had been negotiating secretly for 18 months, with support from Canada and the Vatican. Therefore, the fact that the two sides have been “traveling” publicly with such a high frequency is a sign that the “reconciliation” is still progressing well.

In Havana, unofficial sources revealed that the head of the negotiating delegation representing Raul Castro was none other than his son - Colonel Alejandro Castro Espin, who works at the Ministry of the Interior, is responsible for coordination and connection with the armed forces and has just been appointed as national security advisor.

At the end of May, the last obstacle to reopening the embassies was removed when the US State Department announced that it would remove Cuba from the list of countries that support terrorism. This was seen as a huge effort because most Republicans in the US Congress have often expressed their disapproval of the foreign policy of President Obama - who has only 18 months left in his term. But perhaps this time, the owner of the White House has almost certainly taken control of the "chess game" with Cuba when the majority of Americans support the two countries "making peace" with each other. With that great support, Obama declared last December: "There is a complicated history between the United States and Cuba, but the time has come to turn the page."

It’s not just a statement – ​​the decision to reopen embassies is the latest example, and it certainly won’t be the last. A visit by Obama to Cuba in 2016 has been repeatedly mentioned by the White House, and Pope Francis – who played a major role in the rapprochement – ​​is expected to visit in September.

Iran and the P5+1 group: the final bell has rung

The deadline for reaching a deal between Iran and the P5+1 group has been extended to July 7, next Tuesday, and it seems there are still too many issues to resolve…

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius will return to Vienna on Sunday evening for talks with his counterparts from the other P5+1 countries: the US, China, Russia, Britain and Germany. After a week of intense negotiations with Iran, a Western diplomat said: “We are very hopeful that we can reach a final conclusion in the coming days, but it is quite difficult. The closer we get to the end, the more difficult the issues are.”

Indeed, delegations have sent conflicting signals over the past week about the talks aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear program and ensuring that the country cannot build a bomb. Russia’s chief diplomat, Sergei Riabkov, said on Thursday evening that a deal was close and that the final text was “91 percent complete.” The figure has raised eyebrows because of its surprising accuracy, given that public assessments of the negotiations are often vague.

Iran and the P5+1 group resumed nuclear negotiations in Vienna (Austria) on April 24, 2015. Photo: Internet

But on Friday, July 3, that optimism was all but extinguished by the announcement of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mr. Yukiya Amano, returning from a quick trip to Tehran. He said that in his discussions with the Iranian government headed by President Hassan Rouhani, there was “much more work” to be done to resolve the current outstanding issues.

In other words, there has been little progress in the negotiations, which have reached their final stages. One thing is almost certain: after 20 months of intense negotiations and two extensions, a third extension is unlikely. “If we don’t get anything done in the next few days, there’s no reason to think we can get anything done in the next 10 or 15 days,” a source close to the talks said.

On the other hand, the July 7 deadline is unlikely to be pushed back, as July 9 is the deadline for the White House to submit to the US Congress the final text of the agreement, which would allow for the gradual lifting of sanctions against Tehran. It should be noted that many US lawmakers do not support the agreement with Iran, and if the July 9 deadline is missed, the review and approval process could be extended to 60 days instead of 30 days. That is a complete disadvantage for the Obama administration, as the more time it has, the more opportunities opponents will have to obstruct the negotiation process.

This scenario is certainly not what Europe had hoped for. On Thursday, July 2, French Foreign Minister Fabius said that “things are moving forward” and expressed hope for a “permanent solution” that would be agreed by Sunday evening. In reality, this is a difficult task, as there are still many gaps to be addressed in the framework agreement reached in Lausanne on April 2. The remaining questions of the dream deal revolve around the inspection and monitoring mechanism for Iran; the lifting of sanctions; and the response in case Iran violates the agreement.

Thuc Anh

(The World)