Situations in which North Korea could wield its 'nuclear sword'

North Korea's leadership would be ready to use nuclear weapons whenever it felt its country's survival was threatened.

In recent days, despite great pressure from the US and its ally China, North Korea has announced that it will continue with its sixth nuclear test. According to commentator Ryan Pickrell of National Interest, this view of North Korea stems from the belief of the top leaders in Pyongyang that nuclear weapons are the only thing that can ensure the country's survival.

Pyongyang has said it fears no one and will defeat the United States and its allies with its “nuclear treasure sword.” According to Pickrell, behind this bold statement from North Korea lies a deep fear that it will be destroyed by the United States and its strategic partners one day. Faced with an uncertain future, North Korea believes that the only long-term security solution is to develop nuclear weapons.

As supreme leader, Kim Jong-un has the final say on whether North Korea will launch a nuclear attack on another country. “I think Kim Jong-un will press the button if he thinks his power and regime are threatened,” said Thae Yong-ho, a North Korean official who defected. “He can do anything.”

"From North Korea's perspective, they see themselves as facing the world's largest military and nuclear power in a potential conflict. So the pursuit of nuclear weapons is a deterrent to compensate for their military inferiority," explained Rodger Baker, vice president of the strategic analysis institute Stratfor.

Pyongyang's calculation when holding the "nuclear treasure sword" in its hands is to "prevent the US from gathering forces around North Korea, protecting this country from the same fate as Iraq," said Joshua Pollack, an expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

Kim Jong-un would most likely wield the sword if a conflict were imminent or if an external force posed an immediate threat to North Korea’s survival. Views on what constitutes a “sword swing” vary widely, making it difficult to predict what action North Korea would take.

"For example, we don't know for sure whether North Korea would consider a limited air strike on its nuclear or missile facilities to be an immediate threat, or whether its initial response would be with conventional weapons systems," Baker commented.

"However, given the disparity in military forces between the US and North Korea, even a limited US airstrike could be seen by Pyongyang as the start of a larger military campaign, forcing them to quickly use nuclear weapons, if they do not want their response capabilities to be neutralized," the expert said.

The most dangerous period

According to George Friedman, president of the international analysis organization Geopolitical Futures, North Korea developed its nuclear program to use it as a bargaining tool, and nuclear weapons would be an effective deterrent against any foreign power seeking to overthrow the country's government.

But the most dangerous phase for North Korea is when it is close to having a reliable nuclear weapon, but has not yet achieved it. This is when a preemptive strike by the US and its allies is most likely to occur.

At this stage, North Korea cannot counterattack with nuclear weapons. Pyongyang’s deliberate messaging that it possesses nuclear weapons only adds to the urgency of a preemptive strike.

A strike would be considered by the US based on the severity of the consequences of a nuclear North Korean retaliation. In the event the US believes North Korea does not possess nuclear weapons, the decision would be based on the likelihood that Pyongyang is close to developing such weapons of mass destruction.

A US Navy nuclear aircraft carrier. Photo: USNI

The problem is that the US president will have to rely on intelligence to assess how close North Korea is to nuclear weapons. US intelligence has little information to make a firm assessment, while President Donald Trump has expressed skepticism about the intelligence community.

The US must also consider the damage that non-nuclear weapons systems, especially the thousands of long-range artillery pieces that North Korea has, could cause to its ally South Korea in the event of a preemptive strike. North Korea possesses more than 21,000 artillery pieces of various types, which could rain down about half a million shells on the South Korean capital of Seoul, turning the country's busiest and most populous city into a wasteland.

According to Friedman, North Korea knows that the United States will never trade its ally South Korea for its nuclear weapons program, so it will still be determined to develop its nuclear weapons program, despite threats to use force from Washington.

Observers say that for these reasons, world leaders will have to face the thorny question of the North Korean nuclear issue for decades to come, while Pyongyang's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities will improve day by day, although the possibility of the country launching a first attack is very low.

“There is nothing that can stop North Korea from advancing its nuclear capabilities,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. “It is clear that Pyongyang has found a way to ensure that the world negotiates with them.”

According to Vietnamnet.vn