UK early general election - a new turning point for Brexit

This decision is expected to help break the deadlock in the Brexit process, bringing a clear answer to both the UK and the EU after a long period of fatigue. But experts also warn that Brexit itself has changed the political landscape of the UK, breaking the traditional relationship between the parties, making the upcoming election one of the most unpredictable in British history.

Boris Johnson's final bet

The plan to hold an early general election on December 12 received 438 votes in favor and 20 against, surpassing the necessary two-thirds majority requirement, equivalent to 434 votes. The plan to hold an early general election still has to be submitted to the British House of Lords for consideration. But with such a high number of votes in favor, it is almost certain that the plan will be approved by the House of Lords. According to the procedure, the current Parliament will be dissolved on November 6 to pave the way for a general election.

This will be the first time a general election in Britain has been held in December in nearly 100 years, and the third in four years, showing the unusual situation Britain is facing caused by Brexit.

The British Parliament voted to hold an early general election on December 12. Photo: PA

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to hold an early general election took four votes to pass the Parliament, and this was also his rare victory after all his plans and proposals were repeatedly rejected by Parliament. When the European Union decided to extend Brexit until January 31, 2020, President of the European Council Donald Tusk once again reminded the UK to take advantage of the three-month period to resolve internal issues, and Brexit should not be delayed again after this time. While all options were blocked in Parliament, holding an early general election was Boris Johnson's last bet - a bet with the "prize" being a majority in Parliament, thereby helping him to promote Brexit plans, including the agreement reached with the EU last October.

Boris Johnson once called being forced to write to the EU to ask for a Brexit extension a disgrace, going against his previous statement of “either leave the EU or die”. Therefore, if he regains the majority in Parliament and completes Brexit on time on January 31, 2020, Johnson will be able to do everything that his predecessor Theresa May could not, and that is the way for him to save face.

Illustration photo: Reuters

In the British Parliament's approval of the general election plan, it is impossible not to mention the change in stance of the opposition Labour Party of Mr. Jeremy Corbyn. Previously, Mr. Jeremy Corbyn always rejected the proposal for an early general election because he was not confident in the victory of the Labour Party. However, when both the opposition parties, the Liberal Democrats (Lib-Dem) and the Scottish Nationalists (SNP), supported an early general election, although these two parties had a different purpose: to prevent Brexit, Mr. Jeremy Corbyn certainly did not want to be "alone" to receive criticism from the British people when they were too tired and needed a clear answer.

Ready for the big battle

Recent polls show that the Conservative Party is still leading in terms of voter approval with 36% support, followed by the Labour Party with 23%, the Lib Dems ranked third with 18% and the newly formed Brexit Party with 12% support. However, these numbers cannot guarantee a certain victory for any party, including the Conservative Party. Remember, in 2017, Mrs. Theresa May was very confident in holding a general election when polls showed that the Conservative Party was leading the Labour Party by more than 20%, but the final result was that the Conservative Party lost its fragile majority in Parliament.

While Boris Johnson is betting on a victory in the upcoming election, all the other parties see the current chaos over Brexit as an opportunity to improve their parliamentary numbers since the 2017 general election. So all parties are gearing up for this big battle.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is betting on regaining his majority in Parliament. Photo: AFP

As for the Conservative Party, Boris Johnson has readmitted 10 of the 21 MPs he expelled in early September. The Conservative Party has also assembled a strong team of advisers, many of whom were involved in the “Leave” campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum. The Conservative Party calculates that what British voters want most now is a Brexit that is resolved once and for all, without dragging it out. Meanwhile, the Labour Party and other opposition parties such as the Lib-Dem and SNP also want to take this opportunity to attract more voters who voted to leave but now regret it, or voters who fear that Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party could push for a no-deal Brexit scenario that would lead to an abrupt break with the EU.

The Conservative Party may also have to split votes with the Brexit Party of Nigel Farage - who strongly opposes the deal that Boris Johnson reached with the EU, claiming that this is a half-hearted Brexit outcome. Analysts say that the Brexit story that has been dragging on for more than 3 years has profoundly changed the political situation in the UK, making the upcoming election extremely unpredictable, and it is not impossible that no party will win a majority in Parliament.

The unpredictability of the election outcome means the unpredictability of Brexit scenarios.

There are currently four possible Brexit scenarios, depending on the different election results. First, if the Conservative Party wins a majority in Parliament, Boris Johnson could put the deal he has reached with the EU to a vote, thereby pushing ahead with his plan to take the UK out of the EU before the new deadline of January 31, 2019.

Voters' votes will decide the future of Brexit. Photo: Daily Express

The second possibility is that the Conservatives still win but do not have a majority in Parliament and are therefore unable to vote on the deal. In this case, the default scenario would be for the UK to leave the EU on 31 January 2019 without a deal.

Third, if Labour wins, or joins forces with anti-Brexit parties, a referendum could take place, in which people could again choose between backing the government’s deal and remaining, or between leaving without a deal and remaining.

The final possibility of Brexit being cancelled, regardless of whether the Conservatives or the Labour Party wins, is that the new government is tired of what has happened over the past three years. Thus, the decision to hold an early general election is considered to have turned the UK’s Brexit process into a new direction. However, the important question of “where to turn?” can only be revealed after December 12.