Australia's risky move

This also means that Australia may follow the US position to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel - an issue that the international community has long opposed. According to observers, behind this political move, which is considered "risky", Australian Prime Minister Scott Morison is calculating many things. But which side will the "gain - loss" balance of benefits that Australia can achieve lean towards?

Calculating pros and cons

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's latest statement appears to be a major change from the administration of his predecessor, Mr. Malcom Tunbull.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is facing domestic and foreign challenges related to the Jerusalem issue. Photo: Australian.com.au

Just this June, despite pressure from within the Liberal Party - Australia's largest political party - the country's then Foreign Minister Julie Bishop firmly rejected a proposal calling on the government to move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. She also affirmed that Australia needed to maintain its decades-long stance on the Jerusalem issue.

However, soon after Australia had a new government under Prime Minister Scott Morrison, this view began to change. Accordingly, Mr. Morrison affirmed the "openness" of the Australian government on this issue; at the same time emphasizing: "The issue of Jerusalem's status has always been considered sensitive in the debate; but I think we need to confront and resolve it".

There are many reasons behind the Australian Prime Minister’s surprising announcement. First of all, the announcement was made in the context of an upcoming by-election in Wentworth to find a replacement for the MP position left by former Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull.

Specifically, Mr. Dave Sharma - the candidate of Prime Minister Morrison's Liberal Party is rushing to fill the vacant seat, is at a disadvantage. Therefore, the Australian Prime Minister's statement is considered to create a push to attract Jewish voters in the Wentworth area for Mr. Sharman. Simply because if this character fails against Labor Party candidates or Liberal candidates, Prime Minister Morrison will easily lose the majority in parliament.

Another reason that needs to be mentioned is that Australia's policy under new Prime Minister Scott Morrison especially emphasizes the US-Australia alliance. In her first speech on Australia's policy since taking office in August, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne recently emphasized that the alliance between the country and the US has never been more important than it is now, when tensions continue to escalate in the Indo-Pacific region.

Therefore, it is not too difficult to understand why Australia chose to "side with the US" on the controversial issue of Jerusalem.

Unforeseen consequences

Despite his calculations, the Australian Prime Minister may not have anticipated the strong reaction of the international community to this latest statement. Although still supporting the two-state solution, Mr. Morrison's announcement that he would consider moving the Australian embassy in Israel to Jerusalem was enough to stir up public opinion in the Middle East as well as Muslim countries.

First, Palestine, which stressed that Australia was taking too many risks and wanted to go against the rules and resolutions of the United Nations. Meanwhile, ambassadors of 13 Arab countries to Australia immediately met in Canberra, expressing concern that Australia's consideration of moving its embassy to Jerusalem could destroy the Middle East peace process.

Expressing a stronger stance, Indonesia even warned that it could consider suspending the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) it just signed with Australia in protest.

Observers say that in addition to pleasing the US ally, it seems that Mr. Morrison is making reckless bets for short-term internal political goals, even relations with potential partner Indonesia.

Jerusalem is becoming a risky political card for Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Photo: Getty

Prime Minister Morrison's recent trip to Indonesia right after taking office, along with a series of attractive economic cooperation opportunities, has somewhat restored the image of the ruling Liberal Party, which has been seriously declining after internal struggles.

The free trade agreement with Indonesia has also made a personal mark and increased Mr Morrison’s political prestige. But with the Jerusalem announcement, these efforts and achievements of the Australian Prime Minister may “go down the drain”.

Not stopping at Indonesia, according to observers, siding with the US and changing the diplomatic mission on the Middle East peace process will only isolate Canberra from the international community. First of all, it will be other Muslim countries such as: Malaysia, Palestine, Arab countries...

These countries all consider Jerusalem the third holiest site after Mecca and Medina. Meanwhile, Australia's voice and position in international affairs, especially on Middle East peace issues, have also seriously declined.

Therefore, according to observers, if Prime Minister Morrison is determined to realize his announcement of moving the Australian embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Canberra will probably "lose" more than "gain".

Because even if the ruling Liberal Party wins the support of Wentworth voters and the parliamentary seat here, it will not improve its long-term image. And if the Jerusalem declaration is just a step to test Prime Minister Morrison's attitude, after considering the pros and cons, this is probably the time for the Canberra government to stop at the right time!