PyongChang Olympics: The calm before the storm in US-North Korea relations?

The "calculating" silence

Despite the tough rhetoric from both the US and North Korean leaders in recent months, experts say both sides will remain “silent and defensive” during the PyeongChang Olympics in South Korea.

Troy Stangarone, director of the Washington-based Korea Economic Center, said concerns that North Korea could “disrupt” the Winter Olympics were completely unfounded.

“Large-scale weapons testing or attempts to disrupt the Olympics will only increase pressure on North Korea,” Stangarone said, adding that North Korea had pledged not to disrupt the Olympics in South Korea and was keen to show it would keep its word.

Agreeing with the above assessment, Mr. Douglas Paal - Vice President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that the strategic interest of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is to maintain silence during the Olympics.

“The PyeongChang Olympics are Kim Jong-un’s best chance to change the international community’s perception of North Korea’s willingness to ease tensions and shift the current pressure to the US and South Korea,” Paal added.

Meanwhile, according to experts, US President Donald Trump is also expected to be “more restrained than usual” during the Olympics. Experts believe that Mr. Trump is trying to create conditions for South Korean President Moon Jae-in to have the opportunity to approach the North Korean delegation at the Olympics.

According to experts, both Mr. Trump and the North Korean leader do not want to act first because they do not want to be seen as the cause of increased tensions at this Olympics.

North Korea "buying time", US impatiently waiting for "curtain to fall"?

Experts say that North Korea had many goals in mind when agreeing to participate in the Olympics in South Korea. The most important goal is to reduce the pressure from sanctions from the US and the international community as much as possible.

“Whatever they do, North Korea wants to convince the world that they are a responsible nuclear state and that they can continue to pursue their nuclear program without the sanctions they currently have,” Stangarone said.

However, Mr. Stangarone warned that the US would never recognize North Korea's nuclear program and would do everything possible to hinder it. Meanwhile, North Korea has always believed that the "key" to its survival is to possess nuclear weapons.

According to experts, this belief stems from the fact that both current North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his father, Kim Jong-il, witnessed the departure of Libyan and Iraqi leaders who were believed to have had “American interference.”

Leading up to the PyeongChang Olympics, the US has been steadily imposing new sanctions on North Korea to force it to abandon its nuclear program.

Although Mr. Trump has declared his willingness to open the door to direct dialogue with North Korea and expressed optimism that inter-Korean relations could warm up after the two countries held joint activities to promote the Winter Olympics this year, there are still concerns that the US may "preemptively strike" North Korea with fierce airstrikes on its nuclear facilities.

This stems from the fact that both President Donald Trump and Mr. Kim Jong-un did not hesitate to issue the strongest threats against the opponent before deciding on strategic silence.

While Mr. Kim asserted that he possessed missiles that could attack US land targets, President Trump responded that attacking a country with the world's leading military like the US would be the "worst mistake" that North Korea would dare to make.

Therefore, according to experts, the Olympic period will be a very scary lull before major events are about to happen on the Korean peninsula. The consequences of these events are considered "extremely unpredictable"./.