France and the Mistral warship: Abandoning it would be a pity, keeping it would be a sin

(Baonghean) - On Tuesday, November 25, French President Francois Hollande decided to postpone the delivery of the second Mistral warship to Russia until a new decision is made. This is a direct result of the view that the leader of the hexagonal country expressed before the NATO Summit on September 3: In Ukraine, the "conditions for delivery" are being respected "less" than ever.

Mistral helicopter carrier named Vladivostok built by France for Russia. Source: Reuters

The contract for the sale of Mistral warships was signed in 2011 between the French naval construction company DCNS and the Russian company Rosoboronexport, under the promotion of the then French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Accordingly, the handover was to be carried out by mid-November 2014. However, the Ukraine issue arose, typically the annexation of Crimea into the Russian Federation in March 2014, 4,000 victims of the fighting in the East of this country became a barrier in the arms trade between the two countries. However, at the Elysees Palace, people still affirmed that "There has never been any pressure on France, it is Paris that proactively applied sanctions against Moscow". Despite tough measures to punish Russia's policy in Ukraine, "no one has criticized France on the Mistral issue," said a French official returning from the latest NATO parliamentary session on Monday, November 24. But that does not make its Baltic and Polish allies any less worried. Time is also a pressure on France, from a contractual perspective. Hollande's decision to delay the delivery of the ships is based on a clause that allows for a delay in the acceptance of the contract in the event of "critical events," which protects the French maritime company DCNS in the deal.

On the Russian side, the media has twice announced the delivery date of the Mistral: first on November 14, then postponed to November 27. Voice of Russia - a pro-government news agency - confirmed: "The ship will probably be sent to the Russian port of Kronstadt on the night of November 28. The warship will be escorted by the Smolny, because the Mistral ship named Vladivostock does not have any number or identification marks." Perhaps this is a tactic to increase pressure, or to respond to pressure from the other side. For Russia, if the delivery of the Mistral warship depends only on France, then these two ships, which are highly regarded in the Russian Navy, would have been delivered on time. In fact, French leaders have also had to admit in recent days that they have not found a solution to this problem. If this order is permanently canceled, it means political sanctions against Russia and the French economy. The problem for the hexagonal country is that its defense budget is in a very unfavorable state. In this context, any loss of export revenue would upset the delicate balance that experts and the Ministry of Defense are struggling to maintain.

The warship deal with Russia could very well be the spark that triggers a "chain reaction" that could disrupt relations with other arms trading partners around the world. A government official affirmed that the trust of strategic partners buying Rafale fighter jets in India or Qatar for France is still very good: "Our partners make a clear distinction between the Mistral issue and other issues. France's word still carries weight in the arms trade." That said, France still has to be cautious, as evidenced by the decision on Sunday, November 23, by French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian to visit Warsaw, Poland on Tuesday, December 2. Paris attaches great importance to its relationship with Poland to ensure France's position in the combat helicopter trade market. Mr Le Drian has promised to implement new measures to "strengthen relations" with Poland, including sending "an armoured unit" to participate in exercises in Poland.

The French-Russian contract for the sale of Mistral warships has not yet been officially broken. But if it is delayed for too long (the deadline is unknown), legal problems may arise. For many months now, Russia has been making different statements about this possibility, sometimes with the intention of threatening, sometimes with a conciliatory tone. Some observers believe that the delay in this purchase may bring Russia some benefit, otherwise the birch country would not have wasted its efforts to prolong this pressure-filled "catch-and-shoot" game. On Tuesday, December 25, Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia Iouri Borissov declared: "We will continue to wait patiently. Up to now, we have no plans for specific actions" - reported by Ria-Novosti News Agency. A somewhat contradictory argument with Russia's last-minute warning statements at the international negotiation table. Just before the meeting between the Russian and French presidents on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Brisbane, Australia, an unnamed senior Russian official said that the deadline for France to implement the terms of the contract is two weeks. If this deadline is exceeded, Russia will sue France in the financial and economic court. In addition to implementing the penalty in accordance with the terms of the contract, Deputy Head of the Defense and Security Committee of the Russian Federation Council Evgueni Serebrennikov said that Moscow can completely "stop buying military equipment from all NATO countries".

The deal may be delayed for years to come. The second Mistral warship, named Sebastopol, has just been launched. According to the contract, Sebastopol will be delivered in 2016. This is considered the "most binding contract for France in the history of arms sales". According to a source in the French Ministry of Defense, the current delay is an exception due to "external factors", the rest of the contract is extremely detailed and precise in terms of time. If these terms are not respected, France will be fined, specifically the three companies involved: Saint-Nazaire Marine Works, DCNS Marine Construction Company and DCI-NAVFCO Technical Advisory Satellite Company. DCI-NAVFCO alone has completed a technical training contract for the Russian Navy and will be paid 30 million euros. DCNS will face the greatest risk of loss. The 1.2 billion euro contract is insured by Coface, an insurance company specializing in exports for the government budget. In case of breach of contract, DCNS will have to pay a fine of 20% of the total contract value, or 240 million euros. This amount exceeds the total revenue of the group in 2013 (166 million euros). Not to mention that DCNS's sales also decreased in the first quarter of 2014. Not only that, if it has to go to court, this amount could exceed 1 billion euros. In the immediate future, it is not necessary to think far ahead, it is necessary to spend money to maintain the Vladivostok warship. DCNS's financial situation is at a red alert level, causing the group's leaders to discuss with the French government a solution to settle the fine if the contract with Russia fails.

The French Ministry of Defense is still studying alternative solutions. According to many observers, the ship cannot be handed over to anyone other than Russia, for example, Canada, NATO or the EU, according to some suggestions. The stern of the hull is made in Russia. All the interior of the ship, down to the sockets and electrical systems, will have to be completely replaced according to NATO standards, experts emphasize. The least feasible solution is for the French Navy to receive the Mistral warships themselves. For the following reasons: The French Navy is already equipped with three combat ships, so this is not necessary. In addition, with limited financial conditions, receiving more combat ships means reducing the equipment quota, while the French Navy is in need of other large equipment, such as second-class warships. So what should France do when the European Union has just decided to expand sanctions against 13 individuals and 5 "entities" - mainly political groups - on Thursday, November 27. Among them, there are many figures closely related to the Russian leadership, accused by the EU of "participating in actions that violate the territorial integrity of Ukraine", specifically the vote on November 2. This event will certainly continue to freeze the Russia-Europe relationship and further strengthen the barrier in the Mistral mission. "It is a pity to abandon it, but a sin to keep it", it seems that France is facing a problem without a solution...

Thuc Anh -According to Le monde