Missile launch or not, North Korea still wins

(Baonghean.vn)- After all the recent loud statements, if North Korean leader Kim Jong-un did not actually order the launch of missiles to attack Guam, from Pyongyang's perspective and from the viewpoint of some US military experts, then the North Korean leader and his generals would have won.

North Korea's threat to attack Guam with ballistic missiles. Photo: AP

Missile launch or not, Pyongyang has created great drama and uncertainty, angering US President Donald Trump and alarming US allies in Tokyo and Seoul. It also sets a precedent for more aggressive brinkmanship ahead.

Unsurprisingly, on August 15, amid photos of Kim Jong-un and North Korean military officials inspecting missile launch plans, along with photos of the missile’s flight path and a large satellite image of Andersen Air Force Base on Guam, things seemed to quiet down again when the North Korean leader said he wanted “more time” before making a decision.

North Korea has never said it would strike Guam with precision. And, more importantly, it has never said when it would launch. “The North Korean regime is crafting a threat in a way that allows its leader to back off without losing face,” said Adam Mount, a nuclear strategy expert at the Center for American Progress. “North Korea’s Guam threat is more troubling, credible, and coercive than any vague warning President Trump issued last week.”

North Korea has repeatedly test-fired missiles this year. Photo: AP

Pyongyang may still want to test-fire the missile at an angle closer to the “true trajectory” of an actual attack. If pushed further, or in response to joint US-South Korean military exercises that begin next week, it may also want to use the launch to show the world what it can do.

But many experts who follow the situation in North Korea believe that Mr. Kim will not be hasty. Mr. Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California, commented: "I think they drew up this scenario, probably to make Mr. Trump lose the benefit. It is not an empty threat, but a move with quite high benefits. I think North Korea will abandon the attack plan if the war of words calms down."

Pyongyang said Mr. Kim’s decision depends on the US deploying B-1B strategic bombers from Guam to the Korean Peninsula. If Washington stops deploying these planes, Mr. Kim can declare victory. If B-1Bs are still deployed in the skies over the Korean Peninsula, Pyongyang will have an excuse to launch missiles. Or the country can show “magnanimity” by not launching, while still reserving the right to launch a missile attack at some day./.

Lan Ha

(According to AP)