Is the West considering a 'land for peace' deal in Ukraine?
The defeats on the battlefield and the US elections are believed to have spurred the shift, moving toward negotiations.
According to the Washington Post, although Kyiv remains opposed, European members of NATO are increasingly convinced that the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be ended through negotiations, and this could involve territorial concessions.
The U.S. and its allies have transferred hundreds of billions of dollars worth of cash, weapons, equipment, and ammunition to Ukraine since 2022, while maintaining that they are not directly involved in the fighting.
According to information published in the Washington Post on November 13, several European countries are currently undergoing a “quiet but increasingly evident shift” toward a ceasefire that would allow Russia to control parts of territory claimed by Ukraine, while still providing Kyiv with certain security guarantees.
The sources said the secret discussions were spurred by the “gloomy” battlefield situation for Ukraine and the prospect of US funding potentially drying up when President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January 2025. Accordingly, while public statements supporting Kyiv continue, 10 current and former EU and NATO diplomats told the Washington Post that some countries are seeking to “lay the groundwork” for peace talks.
One of the ideas being floated is for Russia to retain control of the territories it currently controls, while Ukraine would receive the presence of Western peacekeeping forces or other security guarantees, rather than NATO membership.
"This is certainly no longer a fringe idea," an unnamed Western official told the Washington Post, while a senior NATO official said that those proposing "land for peace" are no longer considered "heretics" as they once were.
Camille Grand, an expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told the Post that among NATO members in Europe, there are “50 shades” of vision for the peace agreement. Meanwhile, no one knows what Trump will propose when he takes office.
According to the Post, the current US administration has been "rushing to provide as much military aid as possible" to Ukraine before this happens. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Brussels on November 13 to discuss strategy with senior officials from NATO, the EU, and Ukraine.
Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that "when the time comes, no decision can be made about Ukraine without Ukrainians, nor about Europe without Europeans."
This poses a problem for NATO, as Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has rejected any proposals to abandon territorial claims or his so-called peace platform, which calls for Russia's surrender.
On November 13, Zelensky's advisor, Mikhail Podoliak, posted on social media that Western peace proposals amounted to "peace through the sacrifice of victims" and offered no "realistic scenario that would force Russia to stop its aggression."
The biggest challenge for the West, according to the Post, will be “adjusting the public message about the negotiations after more than two years of warnings about an existential threat to Europe,” which has already demanded billions of dollars in spending on Ukraine.
An unnamed official told the Washington Post: "That's a key aspect of any deal we make. It should never be seen as a victory for Russia."
Moscow announced conditions for ending the conflict earlier this year, which included Ukraine withdrawing from all regions that voted to be annexed by Russia, the "defascistization" of the government in Kyiv, and the maintenance of permanent military and political neutrality.
