US-North Korea relations freeze, China steps in

"Change the helm midstream"

The trilateral meeting between China, South Korea and Japan took place in the context that not only the US but also the whole world is "holding its breath" waiting for the "Christmas gift" that North Korea promised to send to the US. North Korea has repeatedly expressed disappointment that the country's restraint on long-range missile and nuclear tests has not helped them ease sanctions. Therefore, North Korea has set a deadline of December 31 for the US to make concessions, but the US side has not changed.

The “gift” that North Korea sends to the United States will mark the end of the commitments that North Korea has tried to keep for the past year and a half.

On Sunday (December 22), after an expanded meeting of the Central Military Commission, North Korea announced that it had “turned to a new path” in negotiations with the US, raising speculation that North Korea will soon publicly announce its “gift” to the US today or tomorrow. The “gift” that North Korea sends to the US is certainly not simply a weapons test as it has been doing in recent months, but will be a milestone to end the commitments that North Korea has been trying to keep for the past year and a half, bringing with it the specter of a new confrontation between the US and North Korea as happened in 2017.

North Korean missiles in a parade. Photo: Reuters

Along with the statement that it will not accept any deadline set by North Korea, the US side is currently almost "inactive". According to analysts, passive waiting and preparing response measures is the most feasible option for the US at this time, because current conditions do not allow the US to make concessions or take tough military steps. However, the US side also realizes that behind North Korea's continuous pressure is still the desire to negotiate. However, the US is now unlikely to reach out to North Korea when North Korea's negotiation condition is that the US must first relax sanctions.

It is the freeze in US-North Korea relations that has caused public opinion to focus its hopes on China - the only country considered to be able to influence North Korea at this time.

In addition, when the US-North Korea bilateral negotiations fell into a deadlock despite having had a very favorable launching pad with two summits in Singapore and Vietnam, multilateral meetings led by China are considered to open up more effective solutions.

US President Donald Trump (3rd left) and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un during their meeting at the second US-North Korea Summit in Hanoi. Photo: AFP/TTXVN

Even the US sees that the opportunity to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table lies in China's hands. That is why, during his visit to Japan and South Korea last week, US Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun stopped by Beijing to unify views on the North Korea issue with Chinese officials. US President Donald Trump also spoke by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping last Friday to ensure that nothing beyond the US's calculations was brought up at today's China-Japan-South Korea summit. During the call, President Xi Jinping agreed with President Donald Trump to promote political solutions to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue.

Like the US, Japan and South Korea also understand the role of China in "solving the difficult problem" called North Korea. Before the summit, South Korean President Moon Jae-in emphasized that the stagnation in US-North Korea dialogue and the gradually "heating up" atmosphere on the Korean peninsula is not beneficial to all countries in the region, and South Korea's position is to find a solution to this "difficult problem" together with China and Japan.

US President Donald Trump called President Xi Jinping ahead of the China-Japan-South Korea summit. Photo: Business Insider

Finding common ground

As Mr. Moon Jae-in has said, the outbreak of conflict on the Korean peninsula will first and directly affect neighboring countries South Korea, China and Japan. Therefore, all three countries are considered to be “sitting in the same boat” with the “helmsman” being China. However, the current difficulty is that the three countries are pursuing different approaches to this issue: Japan has long maintained a tough stance, which is to exert pressure through sanctions; South Korea, although very much interested in pursuing a flexible strategy with North Korea, is quite dependent on the policy of its ally, the US - if the US decides to be “tough”, then South Korea cannot be “soft” either; meanwhile, China, although not officially acknowledged, is always considered a “silent patron” of North Korea, as shown by the fact that China and Russia recently jointly proposed a resolution to ease sanctions on North Korea - although this proposal did not receive the approval of the US.

North Korea is likely to be the thorniest agenda item at the meeting between Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Chengdu, analysts say. The success of the meeting will depend on whether China can persuade South Korea and Japan to change their approach, or in other words, whether it can persuade South Korea and Japan to boldly “go against” the US.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meet in Chengdu. Photo: EPA

In a context where the US has very few options with North Korea, as the end of 2019 approaches, China can go a step further and influence the US through Japan and South Korea, so that the US can support China's approach to the North Korea issue in multilateral forums, most importantly the United Nations Security Council.

However, it is very difficult for China, South Korea and Japan to officially announce a solution to the North Korean problem immediately after the Chengdu meeting, because North Korea and the US themselves are unlikely to publicly admit their inability to work directly with each other but must go through intermediary partners. But according to analysts, sometimes informal diplomatic activities are much more effective than meetings with "head and tail support", and this is exactly how China can influence North Korea, with the help of Japan and South Korea.

North Korea's warning overshadows China-Japan-South Korea Summit. Photo: Fox News