Vietnam - China Relations: Goodwill but Must Be Sober

(Baonghean) - The long-standing relationship between Vietnam and China has never been an old topic for public opinion at home and abroad. Nghe An Newspaper reporter had an interview with Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute of Science and Strategy of the Ministry of Public Security to have a broad and in-depth view of the latest events, placed in the context of this long-standing relationship.

PV:Dear Major General, recently public opinion has been very interested in the information that China has proposed that Vietnam use the Chinese currency (yuan) in Vietnam-China transactions. In your opinion, what is China's motive and purpose for this move?

China suggests that Vietnam use the yuan in Vietnam-China transactions. Photo: internet

Major General Le Van Cuong:First of all, in terms of economics, the use of a common currency in trade transactions is a common occurrence in the world and China is no exception. Because the level and scope of currency internationalization reflects the scale of development of an economy. People still call the US a superpower, this is most clearly shown in the fact that for hundreds of years, the US dollar has accounted for 60% of foreign currency reserves on the entire planet. In fact, since 2010, President Xi Jinping has advocated the internationalization of the yuan and required the entire Chinese economic system to focus on it, considering it a spearhead for the development of the economy of the billion-people country in the era of integration. Vietnam is an inevitable destination, along with other countries in the region such as Laos, Cambodia, Japan, Korea, etc.

However, besides the economic reasons, I think there are also security and political reasons. Is it possible that through the use of the yuan in bilateral transactions, China wants to create a binding relationship in which Vietnam is in a dependent position? That is not a meaningless question. Of course, from our perspective, it is impossible to imagine and fully evaluate the profound meaning behind China's proposal. But I think it is a proposal worth considering, even being cautious about. Because, once there is economic dependence, there will inevitably be security and political dependence and manipulation.

This interconnected relationship is a common and obvious truth, the “rules of the game” of every game on the international stage: the crisis in security and political relations between Russia and Ukraine, which has led to the energy crisis, is the latest example. Saying this is to always remind ourselves: there is never a clear separation or distinction between economics and security and politics; every decision and every move in international foreign relations has multi-dimensional motives.

PV:So, from an economic perspective, should we accept this proposal from China or not, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In terms of pure economics, I think it is necessary to evaluate the host economy of the renminbi before deciding whether or not to accept this currency to penetrate deeper into the Vietnamese economy. In terms of the ranking of convertible currencies, first is the dollar - as I said above, then the euro with a large trading area, third is the Japanese yen and then the British pound. Thus, in the world financial market, the role of the renminbi is still relatively modest. Basically, it is not a convertible currency widely used in international trade and foreign exchange transactions. For this reason, we should not tie our economy to a currency that is not "strong" and has no convertible value.

Remember, we have previously debated the need to avoid "dollarization", because it creates the problem of a direct, passive bond to the economy and political security with foreign elements. That is the case with a strong currency, behind which is the world's most modern industry and technology, playing the leading role of the planet - and we are still afraid, let alone with a currency and an economy with many instabilities like China.

The total production of this country is very large, but the quality of development and the intellectual content are still debatable. Low efficiency, real estate "bubble", large public debt,... these are "bombs" that will never explode in the billion-people economy. So, should or should not we attach the currency - the lifeblood of the national economy - to such a potentially risky subject, I think the answer is clear.

PV:That is purely economic, is there any other reason why we should consider this proposal, General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:I have just analyzed in theory, but in practice, there are many "lessons" that we can learn from the cooperation with this long-standing neighbor. It must be said that the relationship between Vietnam and China has gone through many ups and downs and fluctuations. We acknowledge the help of the Chinese people during the difficult historical periods of the nation. But besides that, we must also remember that the attitude of the Chinese government towards Vietnam is not only warm, but also partly has the desire to control and restrain.

Regarding political security, perhaps there is no need to say much: the territorial sovereignty dispute in the East China Sea has been and is a hot spot in the region in general and in the relationship between Vietnam and China in particular. Regarding the economy, it is a fact that the projects invested by China in Vietnam almost exclusively use outdated technology. 49/62 cement factories, 17/26 thermal power projects under the responsibility of the Chinese general contractor are all outdated and behind schedule. Most recently, Minister of Transport Dinh La Thang expressed a harsh attitude towards the Chinese general contractor for their irresponsibility in using human resources and technology for the construction of the Ha Dong elevated railway in Hanoi.

All the above facts show that there is a certain lack of goodwill in China's attitude and actions. Realizing this is not to oppose China but to maintain sobriety and insight, to anticipate and avoid possible risks and dangers. Maintaining friendly relations with China is inevitable, because China needs Vietnam and Vietnam also needs China. But friendship and cooperation must be based on respect and ensuring sovereignty. I say sovereignty here, including both territorial issues - that is, political security and economic issues. That means we must have both a "soft" and "firm" attitude, open and good-willed cooperation but resolute and decisive when sovereignty and national pride are threatened. That is a new way of perceiving the Vietnam - China relationship in particular and international relations in general.

PV:Thank you, Major General, for the chat!

Thuc Anh