Scotland's independence from England: Who wins, who loses?

(Baonghean) - This week, September 18th is a historic day for Scotland and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland with a referendum on whether Scotland should separate from the UK or not. If only 50%+1 of the people say “Yes” in this vote, Scotland will become an independent country. So, why, after being together for more than 300 years, does Scotland want to “live separately”; and who will gain and who will lose if this happens, and how will it affect and impact the secession movement in the European region?

Supporters of independence from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland protest in front of the BBC headquarters in Glasgow, Scotland. Photo: Reuters

The motivation for this movement is that although Scotland has been part of the United Kingdom since 1707, it has in fact maintained its independence in terms of legal system, education and its own cultural identity. Meanwhile, having its own Government and Parliament but no longer being a sovereign nation and not being allowed to join the United Nations or the European Union directly, makes Scotland want to separate even more. The Scots also believe that they are having to share the economic burden with both the United Kingdom and Europe, with the severe consequences of the financial crisis and public debt. Supporters believe that Scotland can escape these consequences when it is independent, and then use the profits from oil exploitation in the North Sea to build a more prosperous and fair society. The fact that the number of people supporting independence broke through to 51% for the first time recently has made Scotland really expect the upcoming referendum; It also worried the UK Government, which immediately made commitments to increase autonomy for Scotland.

It is not difficult to understand why the UK does not want Scotland to become independent. According to experts, the UK previously supported Kosovo's independence from Serbia, and now it is London's turn to worry about Scotland learning from Kosovo. In addition, Scotland's separation from the UK will clearly seriously affect the country's international position, as Scotland occupies one-third of the area and is where the UK deploys its Trident nuclear missile submarine force. According to experts, the UK's defense capabilities will certainly be seriously affected, because the Scottish government wants the UK to remove the Trident fleet from Scotland as soon as possible, to affirm an independent Scotland without nuclear weapons. The British House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee must admit that if Scotland becomes an independent country, this will cause chaos in the rest of the UK, such as igniting the wave of independence demands in Wales or Northern Ireland and causing instability in this country. More seriously, if the Scottish people support independence, it is likely that British Prime Minister David Cameron will be under pressure to resign.

Not only does it affect the whole UK, in fact, the other half of Scotland has also determined what it will "lose" if it separates from the UK. Many Scottish businessmen have expressed concern and sent open letters about the serious impact that separating from the UK will have on the country's economic future. Deutsche Bank recently warned that separating from the UK could be a disaster for the Scottish economy. In addition, if it separates from the UK, Scotland will lose its position as a strong political union like the UK, face difficulties in changing the pound, or a series of legal issues when having to renegotiate more than 14,000 international treaties, including treaties on Scotland's relationship with the European Union. The latest difficulty is that the President of the European Commission has declared that Scotland will find it difficult to become a member of the EU if it separates from the UK.

Not only that, observers predict that if Scotland gains independence, it will trigger a domino effect that will cause other territories in the world to follow this trend. Recently, the Parti Quebecois (PQ) party representing the separatist movement in Quebec announced that it wants to hold a referendum on separating Quebec from Canada. Or on September 11, nearly 2 million people in Catalonia in Spain took to the streets in Barcelona to protest for independence. The separatist movement in the Basque Country in Spain has also voiced its desire to follow in Scotland's footsteps; and separatist groups in the Veneto region of Northern Italy recently held an online referendum on the possibility of independence and affirmed that local people want to separate from Italy. These developments will certainly seriously affect the path of integration that the European Union is pursuing. It is not even possible that the Scottish domino effect could spread beyond Europe, with separatist movements in other parts of the world.

With such advantages and disadvantages, up to now, Scotland seems to be torn between two choices: yes or no. While the British government and Queen, although not wanting Scotland to become independent, have both declared that they will respect the people's choice. Perhaps, Scotland's historical turning point will depend on about 10% of the people who are still hesitating and have not made a clear choice.

Phuong Hoa