SIPRI: New nuclear weapons continue to be developed.

The vision of a world without nuclear weapons remains a story in history. In its 2018 annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) criticized the current state of development of new nuclear weapons.

2017 was a special year for advocates of nuclear disarmament. A total of 122 United Nations member states signed a commitment not to produce or possess nuclear weapons. However, this agreement has not brought the goal of a nuclear-free world any closer.

According to the latest estimates by SIPRI, 14,456 nuclear weapons remain in the hands of just nine countries: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. Although these nuclear states are a minority internationally, they have absolutely no intention of abandoning their nuclear weapons programs.

Fewer but more modern

Shannon Kile, head of SIPRI's nuclear weapons project, emphasized that while the total number of nuclear weapons globally has decreased slightly compared to the previous year, existing weapons have been modernized.

"This means that older weapons are gradually being replaced, some of which have actually been around for 40 or 50 years, while new nuclear weapons are also being developed with new technical features and capabilities."

The U.S. government only confirmed its nuclear weapons development activities in February of this year when it released a new version of the Nuclear Posture Review document.

This also impacts other countries, with Germany being a prime example. Although Germany does not produce any nuclear weapons domestically, as a NATO member state, it is protected by the US nuclear shield.

Approximately 20 B61 atomic bombs were stored in the Eifel region of western Germany, and in the coming years these weapons will be replaced with more modern atomic bombs that can be precisely guided to a specific target.

The modernization process is costly.

The US is investing heavily in modernizing its nuclear arsenal. By 2026, the world's leading superpower plans to spend $400 billion on this goal. However, Kile argues that smaller countries like India and Pakistan are also entering what he calls a "strategic arms race."

Both of these South Asian nations are developing new types of nuclear weapons and expanding their capacity to manufacture separable materials. Nuclear weapons therefore remain a core component of the defense strategies of nuclear powers.

Given the current tense relations between the US and Russia, Kile said it is difficult to determine the effectiveness of international agreements on nuclear arms control in the future.

He said, "What worries me now is the fact that the strategic political relationship between the US and Russia has collapsed, and these two countries possess 92% of all nuclear weapons."

Arms control operations are facing difficulties.

This reality also impacts arms control. As key disarmament agreements such as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) between the US and Russia expire in the coming years, nuclear weapons experts fear that no new treaties will be in place to replace them.

There would then be no agreed-upon restrictions on weapons arsenals. “We are clearly moving away from former President Barack Obama’s 2009 vision of a nuclear-free world,” Kile stated.

As a SIPRI expert, Mr. Kile has been monitoring these nine nuclear nations for years. He expressed surprise at one development: the technical advancements that North Korea has showcased in its long-range ballistic missile and nuclear weapons test launches over the past 12 months.

According to him, we still have to wait and see whether the meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump will lead to the denuclearization process in North Korea.

"I'm a little skeptical about that," he said, but added that the recent US-North Korea summit had opened the door to further confidence-building measures.

Military spending has reached a peak.

In their 2018 annual report, SIPRI peace researchers compiled further data showing that political tensions persist where security concerns exist. More money was invested in the military in 2017 than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Total global military spending in 2017 rose to $1.739 trillion, equivalent to $230 per person. In 2017, the per capita spending was $227.

The reason for this global increase is due to increased military spending in several regions. East Asia, in particular, has seen a notable increase in military spending; for example, China has increased its defense budget by 5.6% to $228 billion.

In Europe, the picture is more varied: Eastern European countries significantly reduced their military spending in 2017 compared to the previous year, while defense spending increased in Central and Western Europe.

According to figures from the German Ministry of Defence, Germany spent $43.5 billion on the Bundeswhehr (German military) in 2017, an increase of approximately $2 billion compared to the previous year. The United States remained the country with the largest defense budget, investing $610 billion in 2017, followed by China, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

Global arms trade has increased significantly.

According to research findings from Stockholm scientists, another trend is also on the rise: Global arms trade has increased significantly over the past 10 years after hitting its lowest level since the Cold War in the early 2000s.

The top four arms exporting countries in the world in 2017, in order, were the United States, Russia, France, and Germany.