SIPRI: New nuclear weapons continue to be developed

The vision of a world without nuclear weapons remains a story in history books. In its 2018 annual report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) criticized the current state of new nuclear weapons development.

2017 was a special year for nuclear disarmament advocates. A total of 122 UN member states signed a pledge not to produce or possess nuclear weapons. However, the agreement has not brought the goal of a nuclear-free world any closer.

According to the latest SIPRI estimate, 14,456 nuclear weapons still exist in the hands of just nine countries: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea. Although these nuclear states are in the minority internationally, they have absolutely no intention of giving up their nuclear weapons programs.

Less is more

Shannon Kile, head of SIPRI's nuclear weapons project, stressed that although the total number of nuclear weapons globally decreased slightly compared to the previous year, existing weapons had been modernized.

“This means that older weapons are being replaced, some of which are actually 40 or 50 years old, but new nuclear weapons are also being developed with new technical features and capabilities.”

The US government only confirmed its nuclear weapons development activities in February this year when it released a new version of the Nuclear Posture Review.

This also affects other countries, with Germany being a prime example. Although Germany does not have any nuclear weapons of its own, as a NATO member state it is protected under the US nuclear shield.

About 20 B61 nuclear bombs are stored in the Eifel region of western Germany and in the coming years these weapons will be replaced by more modern nuclear bombs that can be guided precisely towards a specific target.

Modernization is expensive

The United States is investing heavily in modernizing its nuclear arsenal, with plans to spend $400 billion by 2026. But smaller countries like India and Pakistan are also engaged in what Kile calls a “strategic arms race.”

Both South Asian countries are developing new nuclear weapons and expanding their fissile material production capacity. Nuclear weapons thus remain a core part of the defense strategies of the nuclear powers.

Given the current tense relationship between the US and Russia, Mr. Kile said it is difficult to determine the effectiveness of international agreements in controlling nuclear weapons in the future.

“What I am concerned about today is the fact that the political-strategic relationship between the United States and Russia has collapsed and that these two countries possess 92 percent of all nuclear weapons,” he said.

Arms control operations face difficulties

This reality also affects arms control. As major disarmament agreements such as the US-Russia Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start) expire in the coming years, nuclear weapons experts fear that there will be no new treaties to replace them.

There would be no agreed-upon limits on weapons systems. “We are clearly moving away from former President Barack Obama’s 2009 vision of a nuclear-free world,” Kile said.

As a SIPRI expert, Mr. Kile has been monitoring these nine nuclear states for many years. He expressed surprise at one development: the technical advances that North Korea has demonstrated in its long-range ballistic missile and nuclear weapons tests over the past 12 months.

According to him, we still have to wait and see whether the meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump will lead to the process of nuclear disarmament in North Korea.

“I am a little skeptical about that,” he said, adding that the recent US-North Korea summit had opened the door for further confidence-building measures.

Military spending peaks

In its 2018 annual report, peace researchers at SIPRI compiled other figures that show political tensions where security is a concern. More money was invested in the military in 2017 than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

Total global military spending in 2017 increased to $1,739 billion, equivalent to $230 per person. In 2017, the per capita spending was $227.

The reason for this global increase is that some regions have increased military spending. In particular, East Asia has seen a notable increase in military spending, with China, for example, increasing its defense budget by 5.6% to $228 billion.

In Europe, the picture is more mixed: Eastern European countries significantly reduced military spending in 2017 compared to the previous year, while defense spending increased in Central and Western Europe.

According to the German Ministry of Defense, in 2017 Germany spent $43.5 billion on the Bundeswhehr (German army), an increase of about $2 billion compared to the previous year. The United States remains the country with the largest defense budget with $610 billion invested in 2017, followed by China, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Global arms trade increases significantly

Another trend is also on the rise: Global arms trade has increased significantly over the past 10 years after hitting its lowest level since the Cold War in the early 2000s, according to a study by Stockholm researchers.

The world's top four arms exporters in 2017 were, in order, the US, Russia, France and Germany./.