Syria cooperates with the US against terrorism: A sign of restoring order in the Middle East
Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa's visit to the White House and his country's entry into the US-led global coalition against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization is a potential sign of a profound power reorganization in the Middle East, according to experts.
IS remains a persistent threat
This week, Syria officially became the 90th member of the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS, a move described by Middle East political observers as a “surreal” moment.
Syria's interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, was welcomed by US President Donald Trump at the White House. It was even more surreal that the former al-Qaeda member signed on to include his country in the coalition against IS, which was originally an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
However, analysts say the move is entirely logical. The militia that al-Sharaa later founded, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), split from al-Qaeda in 2016 and has focused on fighting the government of President Bashar Assad, while also fighting IS inside Syria for years.
Syria's participation in the coalition is a logical move because IS remains a constant threat inside the country. Since Mr. Assad was overthrown a year ago, about 2,500 to 3,000 IS loyalists are still active in Syria. Researcher Tanya Mehra from the International Center for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) commented: "IS thrives on instability and chaos."
The group has taken advantage of the security chaos to reestablish a presence in areas it had previously retreated from. IS’s new strategy is to shift to a “sleeper state” that focuses on persistence and disruption rather than territorial control. It operates in small groups of about 10 fighters, conducting nighttime ambushes, planting improvised explosive devices, using “lone wolf” attacks and extortion to raise money, even recruiting new members for $400 a month.
Significance beyond counterterrorism
Syria’s entry into the anti-IS coalition has implications far beyond the ongoing war itself. The move will impact the Syrian Kurdish groups – the US’s most important partner in the fight against IS (the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)) – who control parts of northern Syria.
Researchers at the Middle East Institute (MEI) argue that the Syrian government's formal involvement in the fight against IS would "undermine the SDF's monopoly" as the coalition's sole official partner, thereby reducing the SDF's leverage in negotiations with Damascus.
However, researcher Mehra (ICCT) sees this as an opportunity to promote better relations between Damascus and the SDF. She hopes the Syrian government will "rely on the integrated SDF fighters, who have significant experience in fighting IS".
Signs of a US-led regional order
Recent rumors and indications suggest that this move could pave the way for a direct US military presence in Syria. There are rumors that the US could set up a base near Damascus.
A new US military base would help allay suspicions about al-Sharaa's past links to extremist groups, while also reducing the influence of other countries such as Iran, Russia and Turkey, observers say.
Marc Lynch, a political science professor at George Washington University, said: "All signs point to a US vision to firmly integrate the new Syria into the Washington-led regional order." Mr. Lynch even assessed this as "one of the smartest things the Trump administration has done in the Middle East.
“However, there are two main obstacles to this new order: al-Sharaa’s ability to navigate communal divisions (including with the SDF) and, most importantly, Israel. Israel is currently on the sidelines of US support for al-Sharaa’s state-building efforts. If the US were to establish a base in Damascus, it would be forced to deal with the reality that the greatest external destabilizing threat to Syria is Israel. This could have far-reaching consequences for the regional order.
