Syria through the crisis?

(Baonghean) - The nearly 6-year-long war in Syria - a place likened to the fiery cauldron of the Middle East - has just recorded a new turning point. On December 22, the Syrian army announced that it had completely regained control of the city of Aleppo after driving out all rebel forces.

The most resounding victory in many years has gone to President Bashar al-Assad, but concerns about a “second Aleppo” are still hovering…

Buses parked in the al-Rashideen area in the hands of Syrian rebels on December 21. Photo: Reuters.

Iconic victory

The Syrian army has confirmed that it has returned “safety and security to Aleppo”, officially ending four years of rebel resistance in the northern city.

More than just a conventional victory, retaking Aleppo is also a turning point that helps change the situation, the most important achievement for Mr. Assad in a complex conflict that has claimed the lives of about 300,000 people.

However, the difficulties are not over yet, the war will continue in many other large areas of Syria, which are still under the control of rebel gangs and extremist Islamists.

For the Syrian president, the victory in Aleppo was achieved with the help of his allies. Indeed, the Russian air force has carried out hundreds of strikes targeting rebel-held areas in Aleppo.

Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias, led by Lebanon's Hezbollah group, have poured thousands of fighters into support of the city.

On the night of victory, in the western part of Aleppo, which has been under the control of the Syrian government throughout the war, celebratory fireworks rang out. Parties took place in the streets, with crowds singing, dancing, waving flags and pictures of Mr. Assad, and shouting slogans praising the army and the president.

The last group of rebels and their families trapped in a small enclave of Aleppo have been evacuated under a deal that will give the Syrian army and its allies full control of the city, Syrian state television said.

The United Nations estimates that at least 34,000 civilians and fighters have been evacuated from eastern Aleppo in a week-long operation in the bitter winter weather.

Syrian people evacuated from Aleppo city on December 22. Photo: Reuters.

“The Second Aleppo”

As thousands of refugees stream into Idlib from Aleppo, fears are growing that the rebel-held city in northwest Syria could become another Aleppo. This idea seems to be gaining ground as Assad himself has said the war in the Middle East hotspot is far from over and his forces will attack other rebel-held areas.

Among those expressing concern was UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura: “Many people have gone to Idlib, which could theoretically become the next Aleppo.”

Why Idlib? It is important to note that, from a strategic point of view, pro-Syrian government forces see Idlib as their next target. It is a major rebel stronghold, bordering Turkey, and serves as a vital supply route.

Taking control of Idlib would mean securing the Damascus-Aleppo highway, which the rebels have long used as a supply route. It is also close to Latakia, the hometown of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and a stronghold of the Syrian government.

Idlib also serves as a launching pad for rebels to launch attacks on Latakia, which is home to several facilities and bases of strategic importance to Russia's military operations in Syria, including Khmeimim Air Base.

In October, Moscow ratified a pact with Mr. Assad that made Russia’s Khmeimim base the first permanent air base in the Middle East, making Latakia the obvious place to launch an attack on the Idlib stronghold.

Likewise, pro-government forces could easily target Idlib from neighboring Aleppo province, making sense when compared to the movement south to Palmyra, which the Islamic State (IS) recaptured earlier this month and where the US is conducting airstrikes against IS.

Idlib city at night. Photo: Reuters.

Tighten the siege

With Latakia in the west, Aleppo in the east, and much of Hama province in the south already under Syrian government control, it is possible that pro-Assad forces will be able to put Idlib in the crosshairs of a multi-pronged assault.

Some argue that the "herding" of rebel forces to Idlib is essentially a deliberate strategy, aiming to surround and concentrate these forces in a certain location, making it easier to launch attacks.

On the other hand, it is not impossible to calculate that forcing rebel factions that are ideologically and otherwise different to each other in one place is a way to ignite conflicts between them. If they succeed in starting a war between the rebel factions in East Aleppo who are now pushed to Idlib, the Syrian government will seem to be one step closer to victory.

The difficulty in attacking Idlib is that, unlike Aleppo to the east and other areas once under rebel control, it is a place the Syrian government cannot surround on all sides (it borders Türkiye). However, the warming of Moscow-Ankara-Tehran diplomatic relations may ensure that Türkiye will at least not stand in the way of an attack on Idlib.

Russian soldiers stand guard near a bus evacuating civilians in Aleppo. Reuters photo.

Worryingly, not only the rebels but also innocent civilians were taken to Idlib, while Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Nusra Front) - the rebel group operating in the area - has been listed as a terrorist organization by the US-led coalition and pro-Syrian government forces. In the event of a concentrated attack on Idlib, under the name of the war on terrorism, I fear that few people will care about the safety of those civilians.

Not to mention that in a few weeks, when the US President-elect is officially sworn in, the good relationship between Trump and Putin may be the foundation for the US alliance to join hands with Russia and the Syrian Government to launch airstrikes on targets in the Middle East.

And so, the humanitarian crisis that the Syrian people are facing only has the potential to worsen in the short and medium term, “getting through this crisis” is still a dream in the future for these miserable lives.

Thu Giang