World last week: Multipolar world

(Baonghean) - Personal interests are the most primitive foundation of all relationships. That is the reason why the relationship between people and people, between one country and another is not a constant. It changes according to the need for interests and this need depends on time, space, economic - historical - social context. History has witnessed the disintegration of the world's leading powerful alliances as well as the unimaginable reconciliation of opponents step by step through the long cold war. Attracting each other and then pushing apart, we are living in a multi-polar magnetic world...

China "rectifies" its friends list

On Wednesday, November 12, China and the United States reached a historic agreement on greenhouse gas reduction and global climate change mitigation. This is not only a new step for China in contributing responsibly to building and preserving life on the planet, but also a turning point in the Sino-US relationship that has not been very warm.

This polite image of Mr. Putin is not popular with the Chinese authorities and media. Photo: AP

Perhaps Xi Jinping has decided that it is time to change tactics when an alliance with Russia on issues such as Syria does not seem to be of much benefit to China. Or at least for its immediate concerns. Is that why, during the recent APEC Summit in Beijing, China somewhat showed its "discriminatory" attitude towards Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin? On the one hand, President Xi welcomed and entertained the White House owner at the headquarters of the Chinese Communist Party - a rare exception for foreign leaders. On the other hand, President Putin's gesture of putting a scarf around President Xi Jinping's wife was so exaggerated by the Chinese media that it had to be cut from the television footage.

Is it simply a subtle avoidance because President Xi's wife, Peng Liyuan, is a famous movie star with a seductive beauty, while the Kremlin's iron man always ranks high on the list of most attractive men for Chinese women? Or is this somewhat overreaction a manifestation of the somewhat cooling relationship between the two giants who were once long-time allies? In terms of benefits, it is undeniable that the support of the US will have greater value and influence than that of Russia at this time, when Russia is becoming a target that both the West and the US are aiming for. So it is understandable that Xi Jinping - a wise politician - chooses the US instead of Russia, especially with the current unstable domestic situation in China and the unresolved sea and island disputes with neighboring countries.

Also at the APEC Summit that opened on November 10, President Xi met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The initial goal of "making peace" and reaching a common agreement on the dispute over ownership of the Diaoyu Islands has completely failed. Very contradictory, the agreement that Japan and China reached was... they did not agree with each other's opinions. That means the two sides will still maintain their positions in the dispute and the last thing they can do is try to prevent their disagreement from turning into a dispute by force. The awkward handshake between the two leaders is probably not a long-term guarantee for this relationship...

Conflict between two "giants" of the Islamic world

On November 10, IS announced that it had accepted the oath of allegiance from the Egyptian jihadist group led by Ansar Bait al-Maqdis. Along with the oath of allegiance from the Libyan jihadist group on November 3, IS has made significant progress in expanding its territory and influence beyond its Syrian and Iraqi territories. This has made the confrontation between IS and Al Qaeda more tense than ever.

Al Qaeda was founded by Bin Laden, currently led by Ayman Al-Zawahiri as "Commander-in-Chief" and divided into five official branches distributed geographically: Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula based in Yemen, Al Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb based in Algeria and the Sahel, the Chabab group in Somalia, the Al Nosra Front in Syria and Al Qaeda of the Indian subcontinent based in Pakistan (expanding to India, Bangladesh and Myanmar). Al Qaeda is characterized by a network in which each link has a certain degree of independence. The glue that binds these links is Bin Laden's religious ideals - which are also the most firmly-founded ideology in the Muslim world today.

IS, founded by Abou Bakr Al-Baghdadi on June 29, 2014, has so far attracted 15,000 foreign Islamic fighters to Syria to join IS, not only for religious reasons but also for the military achievements and the organization's abundant income. IS's influence has spread to Asia when the Philippine Islamic group Abu Sayyaf and the Indonesian Moudjahidin group also declared their support for IS. The imprisoned spiritual leader of Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah organization also voiced support for IS, causing internal divisions within the organization. Even in Afghanistan and Pakistan - the cradle of Al Qaeda, Islamic movements have called for raising the IS flag. The Egyptian jihad group based in Sinai, which recently pledged allegiance to IS, is originally a branch of Al Qaeda and is considered one of the most dangerous movements in Egypt. This is a cold shower on Al Qaeda because after Iraq, this "old" organization is in danger of losing its base in Egypt. Ironically, Egypt is the homeland of its leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri.

Also on November 10, IS posted radio messages announcing the oath of duty of Islamic groups from Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Of these, only the messages from Egypt, Algeria and Libya have been verified, while those from Saudi Arabia and Yemen are suspected to have been forged by IS. Although it can be said that this is a painful defeat for Al Qaeda, thanks to its longer history and solid foundation based on the religious ideology of its founder, Al Qaeda still has an unshakable position in the Muslim world. Up to now, no major Al Qaeda branch has sworn an oath to IS. Even when the IS "caliphate" was established, major leaders of the jihadist fighters repeated their oath to Zawahiri. Al Qaeda is also supported by its Afghan and Pakistani Taliban allies and small, unofficial branches scattered throughout the Middle East.

Given the tense relationship between the two largest organizations in the Islamic world, many have called for Al Qaeda and IS to reconcile, or even merge into one, to take advantage of the trust that Al Qaeda has built over the past two decades and promote IS's military successes. However, Al Qaeda leaders did not appreciate Baghdadi's initial choice. In fact, he abandoned his oath to Al Qaeda and separated from the organization in February last year before establishing his own organization. The act of calling himself a "caliph" was also criticized because Bin Laden himself did not dare to cross the line of "deification of himself". Of course, if the tense relationship between the two leading forces in the Islamic world continues and deepens, the only beneficiary will be the West. As for the Middle East, whether IS and Al Qaeda are friends or enemies, this land can only be a bloody battlefield.

G20: Russia and "friends" summit

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the G20 summit in Australia on November 15 and 16 alone. He will be accompanied by four Russian Navy warships. In 2010, his predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev, was also escorted by the Navy when he visited California. However, the current situation is completely different.

The G20 summit takes place on November 15. Photo: AFP

The G20 summit is expected to take place against the backdrop of extremely tense conflicts between Russia, Europe and Australia. Relations between Moscow and Canberra have deteriorated significantly since the MH17 crash in Ukrainian airspace last July. The crash, which the West blamed on pro-Russian rebels, killed 298 people, including 38 Australian citizens. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott declared: "There will be many tense debates with Russia, but the debate between me and Mr. Putin will be the most intense debate." The original English text of Mr. Abbott's statement: "I'm going to shirtfront Mr. Putin." "Shirtfront" is a term used in Australian football, referring to particularly violent collisions, often characterized by a shoulder thrust into the opponent's chest. Thus, President Putin - a black belt in judo - received an unhesitant declaration of war from the Australian Prime Minister.

Perhaps the naval fleet accompanying Putin is a show of force move by Mr. Putin when not only with Australia, Russia is also at odds with the European Union - many countries of which are attending the G20 this time. In particular, the EU will have a meeting of Foreign Ministers in Brussels on November 17 - that is, right after the G20 ends - to make a final decision on new sanctions against Russia. It is easy to imagine that this meeting will not be smooth for the Kremlin's iron man when he will have to face pressure from many sides alone.

Is the presence of four naval warships a sign of a "fearful" Russia? Yes, if we consider it from the perspective that Russia has been cornered and has no choice but to resort to force to increase the weight of its voice on the international forum. But if we consider it from the perspective of Russian political tradition, this is an extremely classic tactic of the birch country whenever there is a dispute with other countries and it must be admitted that this method is more or less effective. Russia's power is indisputable, although the West and the US have always described Russia as an unstable and declining country. The embargo has affected Russia, but the West itself is also suffering from the boomerang effect caused by the embargo. Russia has not "collapsed" yet, while Europe has become deeply divided internally when Germany - one of the strongest countries in Europe - bluntly criticized the EU's decision to strengthen the embargo on Russia.

Thuc Anh

According to Le monde