Turkey 'invites' US intervention, what future for Idlib?
(Baonghean) - Despite the increasingly serious Covid-19 pandemic, the Turkish army launched a new attack on the Syrian army this week. At the same time, all sides also had unprecedented large-scale military movements. In the context of increasing tensions that could push Idlib into the "final battle", Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had a series of phone calls this week with both US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Most notably, there was information about the agreements that the two US-Turkey allies are considering to cooperate in the last hot spot in Northwest Syria.
US-TURKEY CALCULATIONS
In fact, the phone call between Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and US President Donald Trump was made in response to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' call for countries and armed groups around the world to lay down their weapons to fight the common enemy, the increasingly serious Covid-19 pandemic.
However, in addition to responding to Secretary-General Guterres' humanitarian call for a ceasefire, there are many other motivations that are causing the two allies, the US and Turkey, to temporarily put aside their differences and conflicts to join hands at this time.
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| Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan “invites” US support in the Idlib battlefield. Photo: AP |
Of course, with all countries, including the US and Türkiye, struggling to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, political considerations are perhaps becoming secondary to current priorities. However, on the other hand, both leaders have always understood the reality that if the last opposition stronghold of Idlib in northwestern Syria falls under the control of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, another wave of violence will take place, possibly even beyond Syria's borders.
Not to mention the uncontrollable wave of migrants, putting even more pressure on Türkiye and the entire Middle East. Obviously, neither the US nor Türkiye is ready for these scenarios, especially in the context of the current pandemic. Meanwhile, allowing the Assad regime to gain the upper hand is no different from further affirming Russia's position and voice in Syria in particular and the Middle East in general.
The only condition for US support in Idlib is that Türkiye must give up the S-400 air defense missile system.
Therefore, in the latest series of moves, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have both offered support to Turkey in Idlib, although there has been no specific promise of military aid. The only condition the US has put forward is that Türkiye must give up the S-400 air defense missile system purchased from Russia.
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| Russia's S-400 Triumf missile defense system. Photo: Sputnik |
Ankara has not yet given an official response to this request. However, according to observers, destroying or returning the S-400 to Russia is certainly not an option for Turkish President Erdogan. But it could be a move to stop buying more of this system in the near future. This alone could satisfy the US, thereby supporting Türkiye in the war in Syria in any way!
STRUGGLE OR CONTRACTION
It is a fact that the Syrian government army has always been determined to gain control of the last strategic area, Idlib - which is currently under the control of the armed opposition forces. However, on the contrary, Türkiye has used many methods such as increasing its forces and calling on allies such as the US to maintain the ceasefire reached with Russia in early March.
Türkiye is in many ways trying to gain more resources to compete with Russia.
On the surface, it is a goal of reducing conflict to focus resources on fighting the epidemic; but in reality, this is a move to ensure Ankara's strategic interests in Northwest Syria. At the same time, it is also a way for Ankara to have more resources to compete with Russia.
Notably, during the week, along with the phone call with the US President, Mr. Erdogan also had a phone call with Russian President Putin. More than anyone, Mr. Erdogan understands that Russia has a huge advantage in Syria. And that Turkey's current military buildup in northwestern Syria is a way to force the Syrian government army and the forces supported by Russia and Iran to "break the fence" and violate the ceasefire. This will be an excuse for Türkiye to act "with legitimacy".
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| Turkish armed forces in Idlib, northwestern Syria. Photo: AP |
However, in response, during the phone call, President Putin only proposed that the Turkish government fulfill its commitments to separate the moderate Syrian opposition from the terrorists of the Hayat Tahir al-Sham group. Mr. Putin did not mention much about Turkey's military moves.
It is not difficult to understand Russia's seemingly "indifferent" actions during this time. Looking back over the past few days, Russia has made many efforts to cooperate with many countries such as the US, China and even Türkiye... in preventing and repelling the Covid-19 epidemic. These steps can be said to be a spirit of global solidarity, but also an effective diplomatic investment by Moscow.
Besides, there is also an issue that the Russian government is more concerned about, which is the oil price war and oil market share with Saudi Arabia. Now, the negotiations and bargaining have had the participation of the United States - another "move" that Russia has calculated for a long time. Therefore, it is understandable that Russia shows little concern about Türkiye's moves in Syria. And of course, escalating tensions is not President Putin's choice at this time! Meanwhile, Türkiye is "on fire", when terrorist elements in Northwest Syria "take advantage of the situation" of the epidemic to increase provocative moves. This is the motivation for the Damascus government to accelerate the campaign to wipe out terrorists in Idlib.
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| The quartet with many debts to the US, Russia, Türkiye, and Syria. Photo: Bloomberg, Washington Post, SANA |
For its part, in response to Ankara's invitation for support, the wise choice of the Washington administration at this time is not military or conflict but diplomatic impacts. And that, to let the war truly end in Syria is the reasonable choice, when not provoking tensions with Russia as well as igniting a new war in Idlib. Of course, the US will need to reach an agreement with other countries, including Russia, on putting pressure on the Syrian government on the roadmap to unify the country. That is, limiting casualties and conflicts when retaking Idlib or amnesty for political prisoners...
Of course, there is no easy solution for Idlib and Syria, especially when the parties are still struggling to divide the benefits equally. But there is a reality that all parties understand, if there is not a diplomatic and political solution, there will only be bad or worse options for Syria!./.
