New gas deal between Russia and Ukraine: A temporary solution

(Baonghean) - Russia and Ukraine have just reached a new gas supply agreement. This agreement is like a "sigh of relief" when last week, the Russian national oil and gas company Gazprom threatened to stop supplying gas to Ukraine, and at the same time redirect supplies from its reserves to the eastern regions that are under the control of opposition forces. However, in reality, this is still a temporary agreement, not a long-term agreement. Therefore, the gas war between Russia, Ukraine and Europe is only a way to cool down tensions. Analysis by Editor Cao Bien.

Gas pipeline near the city of Uzhgorod, western Ukraine - Photo: AFP

The agreement was reached after nearly five hours of negotiations between Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Ukrainian Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn in Brussels, Belgium. According to the agreement, Ukrainian gas corporation Naftogaz will prepay and order the amount of gas needed to ensure domestic consumption in March, as well as ensure uninterrupted supplies to Europe. Russian gas corporation Gazprom pledged to fully supply according to the agreement.

The latest gas tensions between Russia and Ukraine stem from Russia’s threat to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine on March 3 if it does not receive an advance payment as agreed in October last year, also known as the winter gas package. Until the two sides reached a negotiation result, this issue has caused the “gas line” between Russia, Europe and Ukraine to be as tense as a bowstring. While the cold weather still threatens, the risk of gas shortages has not only Ukraine but also some European countries sitting on hot coals, although Europe is now considering other fire-fighting options.

In fact, the latest tensions are also mainly related to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Last week, Ukraine cut off gas supplies to the eastern regions under the control of separatist forces. Russia immediately had to pump gas directly to this region. Russia then claimed that Ukraine had to pay for the gas, but the Kiev government strongly objected, arguing that the Ukrainian company Naftogaz could not send surveyors to some border areas in the east to confirm the gas supply. Therefore, the figures provided by both Russia and Ukraine did not match, leading to the gas tension becoming a hot issue in the relationship between the two sides.

In the current context, when the parties have just signed the second Minsk agreement, Russia probably does not want to "inflame" Ukraine and Europe regarding gas. On acceptable terms, the latest gas supply agreement for Ukraine also shows Russia's goodwill. In the context of economic difficulties, the interruption of revenue from gas sold to Ukraine and Europe will not be beneficial to Russia. In addition, Russia also understands that although the gas card is still important, it is no longer the key card that can make Europe and Ukraine "fear" like in the past. On the Ukrainian side, the risk of gas shortage is present while the cold has not ended. The options of importing liquefied gas from Norway and some other countries cannot replace Russian gas. In that context, the gas interruption at this time will cause Ukraine to fall into a more serious crisis. Reaching an agreement with Russia would buy Ukraine time to find a way to reduce its dependence on imported gas from Russia.

In general, the agreement just signed in Brussels, Belgium seems to be a temporary solution. The deadline for Russia to supply gas to Ukraine is only 1 month, besides there are other unresolved issues such as the issue of gas supply to Eastern Ukraine. Therefore, the recent agreement is just a method of "firefighting" and reducing tension between Russia and Ukraine. In fact, with different calculations and conflicts between Russia, Ukraine and Europe today, the gas war is predicted to not come to an end.

Nguyen Cao Bien