Turkish Prime Minister made a big mistake?

(Baonghean) - If at the end of July, public opinion in the Middle East saw the Turkish government actively cooperating with the US to open an airbase to serve the coalition against the Islamic State (IS), then in the first few days of August, the situation has been completely opposite. Turkey is witnessing dark days of violence with consecutive attacks targeting heavily secured locations such as the US consulate or police headquarters. Is the Turkish Prime Minister's strategy going astray?

After a long period of hesitation, on July 29, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced that it had officially signed an agreement with the United States allowing the Washington-led military coalition to use Incirlik air base to attack the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) militants. Explaining this move by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, analysts said that there are several reasons that can be mentioned. First, Mr. Erdogan's decisions are actually influenced by the results of the general election last June. Accordingly, the President's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its majority for the first time in 10 years and is now negotiating with partners to form a government. By attacking IS in parallel with Kurdish forces, Mr. Erdogan hopes that he can achieve his goal of regaining the desired majority of voters in the new election this fall. If he has enough votes, Mr. Erdogan will have the basis to realize his ambition to change the Constitution and the political system that has existed for many years in Türkiye, thereby concentrating power on the President. Also, Mr. Erdogan is concerned that the Kurdish forces in Türkiye (PKK) are growing stronger and still have the ambition to build an independent state of their own. Therefore, in recent days, although the Turkish government has declared that its focus is to attack IS, people have seen that it has focused more on airstrikes against Kurdish targets.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Photo: Internet

Second, analysts believe that the actual war situation has forced Prime Minister Erdogan to rebalance his foreign policy in the Middle East. Looking back at the beginning, Ankara refused to participate in the US-led coalition's anti-IS campaign, because the Turkish government has long been accused of supporting Syrian rebels - including IS - against the regime of President al Assad. Therefore, sending forces to help the Syrian army attack IS would be like Ankara "shooting itself in the back", which is contrary to its previous policy. However, recent attacks believed to be by IS have occurred continuously in Türkiye. The most serious incident was on June 20, when a suicide bombing killed 32 people in Suruc - a Turkish town bordering Syria. From the suspicion that Türkiye was just a "pawn" on the anti-terrorism front in the Middle East of the US and the West, after a series of incidents, Prime Minister Erdogan seems to have "awakened" when national security is directly threatened. Not only that, Prime Minister Erdogan himself fully understands that if he wants to enhance Türkiye's position and voice in the region, it will be difficult to "say no" to the anti-IS alliance forever.

However, calculation is one thing, reality is another. Right after Prime Minister Erdogan "opened the door" to the anti-IS coalition but in reality it was against the PKK, Türkiye has been hit by a series of bloody attacks. The latest is the attack on the US consulate in Istanbul and two other attacks that killed six security personnel. Even more dangerous is the emergence of a banned extremist group called the Turkish Revolutionary People's Liberation Front, which is expected to carry out more daring activities. This group also announced the attack on the US consulate in the suburbs of Istanbul. Not only that, the ceasefire and the difficult peace talks between the Kurdish forces and the Ankara government, which have lasted for the past three years, are now in danger of completely collapsing. Thus, Türkiye's already chaotic internal situation has become even more chaotic. In fact, analysts have long recognized that Prime Minister Erdogan's attempt to kill two birds with one stone is actually the opposite! And the consequences will certainly not be immediate.

Not only is it counterproductive to the domestic security situation, Türkiye's participation in the fight against IS for its own purposes also complicates the Middle East region. Because airstrikes to destroy IS are not actually the main goal of Turkey or its US allies. For Turkey, Prime Minister Erdogan's focus on destroying Kurdish forces has indirectly caused the anti-IS efforts in the Middle East to decline. Because recently, this force has been greatly helping the US and its coalition to destroy many IS key points such as the Syrian town of Kobani. Besides, with the current developments, the conflict in Syria is even more difficult to come to an end, because any way out of the current Syrian conflict must be linked to the Kurdish territorial issue. "One mistake, a mile off" - perhaps at this time, Turkish Prime Minister Tayip Erdogan is struggling to find the most reasonable solution to stabilize the domestic security situation. But there is a possible solution that observers have proposed - and it is actually very simple. That is, Türkiye should fight terrorism as it really is, which would benefit Ankara, Syria and the entire Middle East region.

Phuong Hoa