Ukraine's situation depends on the mettle of new President Porochenko

(Baonghean) -Major General, Associate Professor - Dr. Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute of Strategic Sciences, Ministry of Public Security, recently had an interview with Nghe An Newspaper reporters about the Ukraine crisis and related issues. We would like to respectfully introduce to our readers.

Reporter:Major General, the situation in Ukraine is becoming increasingly complicated. Could you tell us about the nature of the crisis in Ukraine?

Major General Le Van Cuong:This crisis can be called a political upheaval in Ukraine, which began on November 21, 2013. When the Yanukovich government announced the postponement of signing the association agreement with the European Union, opposition forces poured into Kiev Capital Square to protest, leading to bloody riots. This was a scenario prepared by the US, created to overthrow the Yanukovich government. This scenario is similar to the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia in 2003, the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine in 2004.

New President Poroshenko holds the Bulava scepter, a symbol of power. of Ukraine.(Photo: Reuters

Faced with bloody riots, on February 21, 2014, the Yanukovich government had to sign a peace agreement with the opposition backed by the US and the West. At 8:00 p.m. on February 21, 2014, President Obama called President Putin to say that the US supported the agreement they signed with each other, we proposed that Russia and the US cooperate to help realize that agreement, to help Ukraine escape the crisis. Before that, Secretary of State John Kerry also called his counterpart Lavrov to say the same. 14 hours later, at 10:00 a.m. on February 22, 2014, the US directed the organization of an unconstitutional coup to overthrow Yanukovich. The current Ukrainian constitution stipulates that a president can only be deposed when 75% of parliamentarians agree, but in this coup only 72.8% agreed to "oust" Yanukovich. Immediately after that, US officials and leaders of 28 EU countries flocked to Kiev to support the Kiev interim government formed after the coup on February 22, 2014. It should be remembered that in the Kiev interim government, 1/3 were neo-fascists, 2/3 were tycoons with interests tied to the US and the EU. This event shows the two-faced nature of the United States in current international events.

In response to this issue, Russia counterattacked by annexing Crimea, causing the US and the EU to protest. In this matter, the US and the EU have no right to criticize Russia. Because, since 1793, the Crimean peninsula has belonged to Russia. Crimea was only transferred to Ukraine in 1954 when Khrushchev, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (a son of Ukraine), went back to his hometown and he arbitrarily decided to "give" Crimea to Ukraine as a gift. This was also an unconstitutional act, because the Russian Constitution at that time stipulated that when wanting to transfer a part of the territory from one state to another, it must first be held in a referendum, and second, it must be approved by the Supreme Soviet through the parliament. This reminds people of Kosovo, which was a province of Yugoslavia for 1,000 years and never left Yugoslav territory. Yet in 1999, the US and NATO launched a 79-day war that destroyed the entire Yugoslavia, while the Republic of Yugoslavia did not threaten any country. The US and NATO organized an air attack that wiped out Yugoslavia's economic infrastructure and then carved Kosovo into a separate country. Putting Crimea next to Kosovo, it is clear that the US and NATO have no reason to criticize Russia and Putin. That is not to mention the US attack on Afghanistan in 2001, and attack on Iraq in 2003 without the consent of the United Nations.

PV:On May 25, Ukraine held a presidential election, opening a new chapter in the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and Europe and the United States. Major General, what is your assessment of the new president of Ukraine?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Mr. Petro Poroshenko is a chocolate billionaire, one of the 10 richest people in Ukraine, with a fortune of about 1.5 billion USD, and was the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Economy in the previous government. In the election on May 25, Mr. Petro Poroshenko won 54.87% of the votes, the second highest was Ms. Tymoshenko. This shows that in difficult and chaotic times, 45 million Ukrainians still voted for Petro Poroshenko. So the Ukrainian voters were sober, unlike some people who thought Ms. Tymoshenko would win. The majority of voters chose Mr. Petro Poroshenko because he ran for office saying that if elected, he would do three things: One is to talk to the Eastern provinces to find a way to reconcile and bring Ukraine out of the civil war, because no one benefits when Ukraine is in civil war; Two is to still consider Russia a strategic partner; Three is to do everything possible to restore the economy. The election of Petro Poroshenko is a stepping stone that almost satisfies the interests of all parties involved. Russia also thinks that is enough, the US and the EU accept it. Petro Poroshenko is pro-US and pro-EU but not as fiercely anti-Russia as others. Petro Poroshenko's election declaration harmonizes the interests of all parties, so of course he was elected.

PV:I would like to ask the Major General a side question. Currently, many Vietnamese people are very upset because a major Russian media outlet published an article by Russian journalist Dmitry Kosyrev saying: Vietnam and the Philippines are to China what Crimea is to Russia. Is this a representative voice for the Russian people? How do you view this issue?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Among thousands of Russian journalists, there is a type of journalist like Dmitry Kosyrev. Dmitry Kosyrev graduated with a bachelor's degree in journalism, worked for a while in ASEAN, and worked for a prestigious Russian news agency with such a low level of education. This person does not understand anything about politics. If Dmitry Kosyrev did not receive money from China to write nonsense, then this is a person of low character. I believe this is completely an isolated phenomenon, the scum of Russian journalism that needs to be purged. In every respect, this person is not worthy of holding a pen.

PV:Dear Major General, recently many people have been questioning Russia’s attitude towards China’s deployment of the Haiyang Shiyou 981 drilling rig into Vietnam’s sovereign waters and exclusive economic zone. So far, Russia has not made any official comments. At the same time, Russia visited China and held joint military exercises in the East Sea.

Major General Le Van Cuong:When assessing Russia in its relationship with China, Russia and Vietnam at present, it is necessary to look at the economic, political and security aspects that are closely linked together. Currently, Russia is facing extreme economic difficulties. Because of the Crimea issue, in the first 5 months of this year, investment capital has withdrawn from Russia by more than 60 billion USD, and it is forecasted that by the end of the year, it will be more than 100 billion USD. Russia is facing economic difficulties, whoever is the boss of the Kremlin at this time must put Russia's interests first. In this context, it is clear that Vietnam cannot help Russia. Therefore, they must find other partners who can solve economic pressures. And Russia is forced to look to China. Therefore, they signed a contract to build a gas pipeline worth about 400 billion USD in 30 years.

I think that Putin himself, Lavrov, the Russian Senate and the Russian Duma all have sympathy for Vietnam. The Russian people are a kind people towards Vietnam. But when faced with this issue, they are forced to make a choice to achieve the ultimate interests of the Russian people. Putin must ensure that Russia is stable and does not collapse. In this incident of the oil rig, we need to be calm, sober, objective in our assessment, and sympathize with our friends and the international community.

PV:Back to the issue of Ukraine. Major General, what is your assessment of the situation in Ukraine in the coming time? Will the crisis end quickly?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In the current Ukrainian government, up to 1/3 of the members are neo-fascists, including: Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, Chairman of the National Security Committee, Minister of Agriculture, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, and Prosecutor General. This force is very strong, and may influence the policies of President Petro Poroshenko. Perhaps when running for President Petro Poroshenko, he put forward 3 very good things, but implementing them is not easy.

Therefore, in my opinion, the upcoming situation in Ukraine depends on several factors. The first factor is the courage of the new President Petro Poroshenko. Ukraine is located at the geopolitical junction of Europe and Asia, with an extremely important position. Whoever holds power in Kiev can harmonize the relationship between Russia, the EU, and the US. Because Ukraine is a land of favorable time and place, it is just a pity that people are not in harmony. This country has 8 western provinces that speak Ukrainian, have Roman Catholicism, and have a history closely linked to Europe; 11 eastern provinces have Russian religion, speak Russian, have Russian economy, and have a history closely linked to Russia. Any president in Kiev who can harmonize the two above-mentioned communities will be successful. The previous 3 presidents all failed, and Ms. Tymoshenko failed. Because these 4 people fell in line with the EU and opposed Russia, they all failed. Therefore, if interests are harmoniously combined, Ukraine will be stable.

PV:Major General, what lessons can Vietnam learn from the crisis in Ukraine, especially in the context of extremely complicated international relations today?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In my opinion, there are two problems from the collapse of the four recent Ukrainian presidents. First, the national leaders must develop the economy by all means, while ensuring the harmonious interests of all classes of people and social strata. Next, in the context of globalization, we must always ensure an independent and autonomous policy. We must resolutely not ally with anyone to fight anyone. We must be alert, combine national strength and the times in protecting the sovereignty of the Fatherland. Create relationships with as many friends as possible. Only on the basis of creating social consensus as a foundation, create harmonious relationships. In some ways, we must also be very careful. We are located at the gateway to the Pacific. The struggle in the 21st century will be concentrated in the Pacific. Therefore, we must be alert to establish correct and balanced diplomatic relations.

PV:Thank you Major General, Associate Professor, Dr. Le Van Cuong!

PV Group(Perform)