Iranian General Election: A Tough Test for the President!

According to observers, this is considered a difficult test for the reformist and moderate coalition of the current Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's administration, in the context of the upcoming 2021 presidential election. At the same time, the results of this general election are also expected to have a significant impact on Iran's political life and foreign policy, particularly the Iran nuclear deal and the already troubled US-Iran relationship.

A polling station for the Iranian parliamentary election in Tehran on February 21. Photo: AFP

Turn the tables.

In stark contrast to the atmosphere of the 2016 Iranian parliamentary elections, which saw a resounding victory for the reformist and moderate coalition for the first time in 12 years, the landscape of this year's general election in Iran has completely changed. Even before the election, observers predicted a close race between the conservative faction supporting former Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the moderate, reformist faction led by incumbent President Hassan Rouhani.

Unsurprisingly, according to preliminary results released by the Iranian Interior Ministry, figures loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's hardline policies are likely to win a majority in Parliament. Although the final official election results will not be announced this week, the shift in voter attitudes toward the various factions in Iranian politics has been evident for some time now, even before the general election.

Iranian voters cast their ballots in the parliamentary elections. Photo: Foreign Brief

Looking back at the 2016 parliamentary elections, President Rouhani's moderate, reformist coalition enjoyed strong popular support because the Tehran government had just reached a historic nuclear agreement with world powers. After years of isolation and sanctions, Iran seemed to be beginning to be loosened and open to cooperation with the outside world. In addition, Rouhani himself, since being elected president for his first term in 2013, had consistently made commitments to economic and social reforms.

Iranian voters at the time had high hopes for a "victory of moderation" over extremism, which had held complete control of the country for many years. These expectations and beliefs were the driving force behind voters' continued support for Rouhani in the 2017 presidential election. However, Rouhani's overwhelming and easy victory for a second term did not translate into the fulfillment of the people's expectations.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his reformist, moderate coalition are facing opposition and criticism from the Iranian public and political establishment. Photo: AFP

After nearly two presidential terms, Iranian voters have expressed utter disappointment with Rouhani's administration, witnessing a dire economy, continued international sanctions weighing heavily on the Islamic nation, causing Iran's economy to fall into difficulty, inflation reaching 33.5%, and growth declining by at least 6%. Meanwhile, relations with the US and the West have not only failed to improve but have escalated tensions, along with domestic and foreign policies widely considered misguided.

The peak of discontent was the nationwide protests against the government's fuel price hikes that erupted late last year, involving millions of people. Furthermore, this Iranian general election is taking place against a backdrop of serious problems, such as the COVID-19 pandemic which has killed at least six people; and Iran's admission on January 11th that it accidentally shot down a Ukrainian airliner, killing all 176 people on board. This incident fueled anti-government sentiment, especially after the death of General Qasem Soleimani – a symbol of the Islamic nation's strength. Significantly, this event is believed to be a consequence of escalating tensions in US-Iran relations under President Hassan Rouhani, sparking strong anti-American sentiment throughout the country.

Iranians commemorate General Soleimani after his assassination. Photo: New York Times

The door slowly closed.

Despite the final election results still awaiting approval from the Iranian Guardian Council, the disqualification of numerous moderate candidates, coupled with the current social realities in Iran, makes a conservative victory almost certain. Many believe that if the conservative coalition wins as predicted, the door will gradually close on relations between the US and Iran, regarding the historic nuclear agreement and the political future of President Hassan Rouhani, as the 2021 presidential election approaches.

It's worth reiterating that the Iranian Parliament is responsible for passing laws, approving the annual budget, ratifying international agreements and treaties, holding no-confidence votes against ministers, and even impeaching the President. Of course, all laws then need to be passed by the Guardian Council and ratified by the President. However, according to observers, the victory of the hardline conservative faction in gaining a majority in Parliament will make it difficult for the moderate President Rouhani to implement all his policies, from appointing cabinet members to approving economic and financial reform plans. Inevitably, Rouhani foresaw these disadvantages in the race for a third presidential term in 2021, even though he has refused and rejected resigning at least twice under public pressure recently.

US-Iran relations are expected to become more strained if conservatives gain a majority in the Iranian parliament. Photo: CNN

Furthermore, although the Parliament is considered to have a rather limited role in Iran's foreign affairs, it is clear that the US exerted psychological pressure and imposed sanctions on Iranian officials just before the general election. Because once the conservative faction regains control of Parliament, anti-American sentiment will be revived, making US-Iran relations unpredictable. Even the historic nuclear agreement reached in 2015 could be broken by Iran itself, as the conservative faction would certainly not support any new negotiations between Iran and the West.

Moreover, a return to a hardline stance would once again make Iran wary and cautious of the world, similar to its long period of "closed-off" relations. This would undoubtedly lead to unpredictable changes not only in US-Iran relations but also in the Middle East, and in regional issues involving Iran, sooner or later!

The Iranian people are seeking change for a better life. Photo: CNN