Iran's General Election: A Difficult Test for the President!

According to observers, this is considered a difficult test for the reformist and moderate coalition of the current Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's administration, in the context of the approaching 2021 presidential election. At the same time, the results of this general election are also assessed to have a significant impact on Iran's political life and foreign policy, especially the Iran nuclear deal and the already troubled US-Iran relationship.

A polling station for Iran's parliamentary elections in Tehran on February 21. Photo: AFP

Turn the tables

In contrast to the atmosphere of the 2016 Iranian parliamentary elections, which saw the first resounding victory in 12 years for the moderate and reformist coalition, the situation in this year's general election in Iran has completely changed. Right before the election, observers commented that this general election was a fierce race between the conservative faction supporting former Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the moderate and reformist faction of current President Hassan Rouhani.

And it is no surprise that according to preliminary results released by Iran's Interior Ministry, hardliners loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are likely to win a majority in parliament. Although the final official election results will have to wait until this week, the fact that voters' attitudes toward Iran's political factions have been clearly evident over the past period has not yet had to wait for the general election.

Iranian voters cast ballots in parliamentary elections. Photo: Foreign Brief

Looking back at the 2016 parliamentary elections, President Rouhani's moderate, reformist coalition was strongly supported by the people because the Tehran government had just reached a historic nuclear agreement with the world powers. After many years of isolation and sanctions, Iran seemed to be beginning to loosen up and open up to cooperation with the outside world. In addition, since being elected to his first term as President in 2013, Mr. Rouhani himself has continuously made commitments to reform the economy and social life.

Iranian voters at that time were full of hope for a “victory of moderation” over extremism, which had been dominating the country for many years. This hope and belief were also the motivation for voters to continue voting for Mr. Rouhani in the 2017 presidential election. However, Mr. Rouhani’s easy victory for a second presidential term did not come with the realization of the people’s expectations.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his moderate, reformist coalition are facing opposition and criticism from the Iranian public and politicians. Photo: AFP

After nearly two presidential terms, Iranian voters have expressed their complete disappointment with the Rouhani administration as they witness a poor economy, international sanctions continue to weigh heavily on the Islamic nation, causing Iran's economy to fall into a difficult situation, inflation up to 33.5% and growth down at least 6%. Meanwhile, relations with the US and the West have not only not improved but also escalated tensions along with domestic and foreign policies that are considered wrong.

The peak of the discontent was the nationwide protests against the government's policy of increasing fuel prices that broke out at the end of last year, with the participation of millions of people. Moreover, this general election of Iran is taking place in the context of the country facing many serious problems, such as the Covid-19 epidemic that has killed at least 6 people; or the incident on January 11 when Iran admitted to accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian airliner, killing all 176 people on board. The incident has fanned the flames of anti-government sentiment, especially after the death of General Qasem Soleimani - a symbol of the power of the Islamic State. Notably, the incident is considered a consequence of escalating tensions in US-Iran relations under President Hassan Rouhani, sparking strong "anti-American" sentiment throughout the country.

Iranians remember General Soleimani after his assassination. Photo: New York Times

The door is closing

Although the final election results will still have to be approved and ratified by Iran's Guardian Council, with a series of moderate candidates having been disqualified from running; coupled with the current social reality in Iran, the victory of the conservatives is almost certain. Many opinions believe that, in the event that the conservative coalition in Iran wins as predicted, the door will gradually close in the relationship between the US and Iran, with the historic nuclear deal and with the political future of President Hassan Rouhani himself, as the 2021 presidential election approaches.

It should be noted that the Iranian Parliament is responsible for passing laws, approving the annual budget, ratifying international treaties and agreements, voting no confidence in ministers, and even impeaching the President. Of course, all laws will then need to be passed by the Guardian Council and approved by the President. However, according to observers, the victory of the conservative, hard-line faction in the Parliament will make it difficult for moderate President Rouhani to implement all decisions. From appointing cabinet members to approving economic and financial reform plans, etc. Inevitably, Mr. Rouhani has foreseen the disadvantages in the race for the presidency for a third term in 2021, although he has at least twice refused and rejected resignation under pressure from public opinion in recent times.

US-Iran relations are expected to increase in tension if conservatives gain a majority in Iran's parliament. Photo: CNN

In addition, although the National Assembly is considered to have a rather limited role in Iran's foreign affairs, it is clearly no coincidence that the US is exerting psychological pressure and imposing sanctions on Iranian officials right before the general election. Because once the conservative faction regains control of the National Assembly, anti-American sentiment will be "revived", making US-Iran relations unpredictable. Even the historic nuclear deal reached in 2015 is likely to be broken by Iran itself, because the conservative faction will certainly not support any new negotiations between Iran and the West.

Not to mention, if the hardline trend returns, Iran will once again be strict and wary of the world like a long period of "closing the door" before. This will certainly cause not only the US - Iran but also the relations in the Middle East, hot issues in the region with Iran's involvement to have unpredictable changes sooner or later!

Iranian people want change for a better life. Photo: CNN