Turkish Prime Minister's Uphill Battle

(Baonghean) - This March, Türkiye will hold local elections, an important stepping stone to the presidential election in August and the parliamentary election next year. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced that he is ready to resign if his ruling Justice and Development Party fails in this local election. These statements show that Mr. Erdogan is clearly feeling the increasing pressure on himself as well as on the ruling party in the face of the wave of anger spreading in Türkiye. And analysts say that the anti-Erdogan campaigns that have lasted since last year are just the beginning of this politician's difficult battle in his upcoming career.

Prime Minister Erdogan.

Prime Minister Erdogan is facing a wave of protests calling for his resignation after a recording of him talking to his son about a plan to hide large sums of cash was circulated on the Internet. The conversation took place amid police raids on several locations as part of a wide-ranging anti-corruption investigation targeting figures seen as close allies of the prime minister. Pressure on Erdogan to step down increased after President Abdullah Gul signed into law on February 26 tightening government control over the judiciary, a document seen as a response to the corruption investigation.

According to new polls, the popularity of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party has plummeted to 36.5%, down from 50% in the 2011 parliamentary elections. Since coming to power 12 years ago, this is the biggest challenge Mr. Erdogan has faced as local elections are approaching. The source of this decline in popularity is the massive corruption scandal that was exposed last year, which involved the children of high-ranking officials, the State Bank and even Prime Minister Erdogan's son. The recent revelation of the audio tape is considered to be just the last straw, causing frustration and anger to flare up again on the streets of Türkiye because of the belief that Mr. Erdogan is avoiding investigation into corruption allegations. The latest scandals will weaken support for the Justice and Development Party in local elections and hurt Mr Erdogan's hopes of being directly elected president later this year.

There is no denying that Mr. Erdogan has been Türkiye's most prominent leader in decades. But now, he is being challenged on many fronts. Although Mr. Erdogan has withdrawn some important parts of the controversial judicial reform bills, a move that is considered his "de-escalation" in response to protesters' demands, the wave of protests demanding his resignation in many major cities in Türkiye in recent days has not abated, negatively affecting the image and stability of this country. And if the crisis continues, voters will certainly not elect him as President, even though they have previously voted for the Justice and Development Party three times to keep him as Prime Minister since 2002. The political instability has given rise to another difficulty that Mr. Erdogan faces, which is the decline of the economy, when the local currency Lira fell to its lowest level in history and the Istanbul stock market continued to decline.

However, at this point, it is too early to make a judgment about the "breakdown" of the 60-year-old Prime Minister's political career, because an important reason is that there is currently no bright face emerging in Turkish politics. However, Mr. Erdogan's political future is more precarious and dangerous than ever, and how he will get out of this situation depends on his ability to "handle the crisis" in the face of what he calls a "plot to discredit the government".

Thuy Ngoc