North Korea: Destination of the "South Stream"?

(Baonghean) - In the context of the complicated relationship between the world's giants: Russia, the US, the EU and China, Russia's promotion of relations with North Korea - although not too enthusiastic - is a very notable move. Has Russia chosen a destination for the "South Stream"?

For a long time, China was the only ally of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. However, this is difficult to confirm at present. Over the past year, Moscow and Pyongyang have made significant progress towards each other. Russia's public return to North Korea - a chessboard in which Russia has played a quiet role - has attracted the attention of global powers. In fact, the North Korean issue is one of the rare topics on which the United States and its allies share the Kremlin's views. According to an analysis posted on the 38 North website by Georgy Toloraya, an expert at the economic department of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia is likely to change its position on the Asian country's nuclear ambitions. Instead, in the future, Russia will be less cooperative with the United States' policy of isolating North Korea.

President Vladimir Putin received Choe Ryong-hae - a confidant of President Kim Jong-un, on November 18, 2014 in Moscow.

On November 18, the UN General Assembly Committee responsible for human rights adopted a resolution submitted by the European Union and Japan. Accordingly, North Korea will be summoned to the international court. At the same time, Choe Ryong-hae - Secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea visited Moscow and was personally received by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Through a media interview, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov did not appreciate the above decision of the United Nations and commented that UN agencies should not turn themselves into "legal instruments".

Speaking of the importance of Choe Ryong-hae, this is a figure that President Kim Jong-un trusts very much. In the summer of 2013, Choe Ryong-hae was his representative to work with President Xi Jinping in Beijing. He was also a senior member of the North Korean delegation to Seoul to attend the closing ceremony of the Olympics last October. Returning to the event of Choe Ryong-hae coming to Moscow, this is the third time a senior North Korean official has visited and worked in Russia within the past year. Mr. Cheong Seong-chang - an analyst at the Sejong Institute in Seoul predicted that "Pyongyang is most likely aiming for a meeting at a higher level".

North Korea still relies on China for 80% of its external relations, thanks to the isolationist policy initiated by the United States. Despite its declarations of unbreakable friendship, China is not satisfied with North Korea's nuclear ambitions and missile tests. In turn, North Korea does not fully trust its neighbor. Pyongyang's suspicions are not unfounded: Xi Jinping has never personally visited Pyongyang, but he did visit Seoul last July. If in the past, North Korea received patronage from two giants, China and the Soviet Union, by skillfully playing the game of counterweight, the situation is different now. And it seems that North Korea has found promising prospects in its Russian partners.

Park Byung-in of Kyung-nam University in Seoul said that Russia is reassessing the "strategic importance of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea" amid worsening relations with the United States and the European Union due to the Ukraine crisis. With its hands tied in the West, Russia seems to be shifting to the East and is considering using the North Korean card to "threaten" the United States. In recent months, while the United States and the European Union have been continuously imposing sanctions on Russia, the Kremlin has been quick to sign many agreements with Pyongyang.

In fact, the relationship between Russia and North Korea is not that simple. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia "turned its back" on North Korea and only resumed relations between the two countries since February 2000 with a treaty of friendship, neighborliness and cooperation. Soon after, President Putin visited Pyongyang, followed by a year later by then-President Kim Jong-il's visit to Moscow. In August 2011, in Ulan-Ude (Russia), President Kim Jong-il and President Dmitri Medvedev approved two major projects: the installation of a fuel pipeline to South Korea through North Korea and the restoration of the railway line between the Russian border and the Rason special economic zone (North Korea) with the prospect of connecting the North and South Korean railway network to the Transsiberian. If this second project is successful, it will halve the distance of goods traffic from Europe through the Suez Canal.

While the first project failed due to Seoul's reluctance, the second project - on the contrary - was completed in September 2013. The 54 km railway was opened, allowing Russia to use Rason - a port that does not freeze in winter - to relieve the load on Vladivostok. Most recently, the cooperation between the two countries took a new step when Russia decided to write off 90% of the debt that North Korea had incurred during the Soviet era ($10.9 billion). In addition, the two sides also decided to use the Russian ruble in bilateral transactions to reduce North Korea's dependence on the US dollar. Although the current trade between the two countries is still modest ($100 million in 2013), this figure could reach $1 billion by 2020 based on the growth rate in recent years.

In 2013 alone, oil exports to North Korea increased by 58.5 percent compared to 2012. Moscow also plans to renew half of North Korea's railway system in exchange for the privilege of exploiting some of its mineral resources. A smart move to "reach the finish line" before any rivals have a chance to join in. Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University, Seoul, believes that Russia will not completely replace China's role as a patron of North Korea. To some extent, the Kremlin will have its own stopping point before crossing the other side of a line that completely separates it from the other half of the world led by the United States and the European Union. But where is that line, when the situation in Ukraine is still complicated, leading to escalating tensions in Russia-West relations. Is the Western gateway closed or is "South Stream" just a temporary "leak"?

Thuc Anh(According to Le monde)