China establishes air defense identification zone and consequences

1. Establishment of air defense identification zones.

China announced the establishment of an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea effective from November 23, 2013.

China's declared air defense identification zone (ADIZ) covers the airspace over the Senkaku Islands, which are administered by Japan and claimed by China (China calls them Diaoyu). The air defense identification zone declared by China on November 23, 2013, also encroaches on South Korean airspace west of Jeju Island, Iaodo Island, and a reef southwest of the Korean Peninsula. The air defense identification zone declared by China encroaches on South Korean airspace about 2,300 square kilometers.

Chinese authorities require foreign aircraft flying through the air defense identification zone (ADIZ) to provide flight plans and nationality, and to maintain two-way radio communication to receive timely and accurate responses from Chinese authorities. That is, no permission is required, but when flying through the ADIZ, foreign aircraft must fully declare information as required by China. Chinese authorities threaten that “the military will take emergency measures” if foreign aircraft do not respond to their unreasonable and illegal demands (without specifying specific measures).

According to Xinhua News Agency (China), on November 23, 2013, the Chinese Army sent two reconnaissance aircraft (accompanied by early warning aircraft and fighter jets) to conduct the first patrol over the established ADIZ.

To explain and defend the establishment of ADIZ, on November 23, 2013, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense explained: 1. The air defense identification zone is established for early warning of aviation risks and is outside national airspace; 2. The ADIZ is established in accordance with the United Nations Charter, international law and international practice; 3. The airspace of this zone is determined according to air defense needs and to ensure flights in China; 4. When foreign aircraft enter the ADIZ without declaring as requested by China, China will apply civil measures, monitoring, control and handling (?); 5. China will establish more air defense identification zones at the appropriate time (?)!

That is China's argument. In fact, the United Nations Charter, the international legal system and international practice do not allow China to establish an air defense identification zone covering the airspace of Japan and South Korea in particular, and other countries in general. Therefore, world public opinion is indignant and opposes China's illegal unilateral establishment of ADIZ.

2. International response.

- On November 26, 2013, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe discussed Japan's stance with the Foreign Minister and Defense Minister. After the meeting, the Prime Minister's spokesman criticized China for "using force and taking unilateral actions" to change the power structure in the region. Chief Cabinet Secretary (equivalent to Chief of the Government Office) Yoshihide Suga stated: "Together with the international community, we urge China to consider and make the right decisions." Transport Minister Akihiro Ota affirmed that China's declaration of the ADIZ is "completely worthless" and called on airlines to comply with China's unreasonable demands.

On November 25, 2013, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Chinese Ambassador in Tokyo to exchange a diplomatic note of protest from the Japanese Government. On the afternoon of November 23, 2013, the Japanese Ministry of Defense sent fighter jets flying over the East China Sea.

- As Japan's closest and largest ally in the Asia-Pacific region, the US cannot ignore China's unreasonable and illegal demands. On November 23, 2013, from Geneva (Switzerland), Secretary of State John Kerry stated: The US is deeply concerned about China's establishment of ADIZ and requests China to "exercise caution and restraint" and "we request China not to conduct threats against unidentified aircraft or aircraft that do not follow instructions issued by China". Secretary of State John Kerry stated: China's unilateral ADIZ decision is an attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea.

US Defense Secretary Chuck Hage stated: More than 70,000 US troops stationed in Japan and South Korea will not recognize the air defense identification zone imposed by China unreasonably and "China's declaration of an air defense identification zone will change the way the US conducts military operations in this region". Defense Secretary Chuck Hage affirmed; The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands that Japan is managing are governed by the US-Japan Security Treaty signed in 1960. That means the US will protect its ally Japan if this area is attacked.

US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf

It was not just talk. At 6:00 a.m. (Beijing time) on November 26, 2013, two B-52 bombers took off from Guam and more than an hour later flew into the air defense identification zone established by China without notifying the Chinese side (not following China's request).

What does the US sending B52 aircraft into the ADIZ declared by China say? According to Chinese military commentator Li Wei, the US wants to send two messages to China and its allies in the region: 1. China is not strong enough to impose the rules of the game in this region and the US will not accept China's illegal imposition; 2. Allies (Japan, South Korea) can rest assured, it is not yet time for China to do whatever it wants, the US is still here!.

- The South Korean government has declared its opposition and criticism of China's illegal establishment of an air defense identification zone that overlaps more than 2,000 square kilometers of South Korean airspace. Two South Korean airlines, Korea Air and Asiana Airlines, have declared that they will not notify China of flight schedules passing through the ADIZ area declared by China.

- On November 26, 2013, the Australian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Chinese Ambassador to express Australia's opposition. Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop stated: "Australia strongly opposes any unilateral or coercive actions aimed at changing the situation in the East China Sea."

- Indian public opinion believes that China is implementing a "brinkmanship" policy and threatening regional stability.

- The German government believes that China's establishment of an air defense identification zone "has increased the risk of armed conflict between this country and Japan." Germany is a pillar of Europe, and Europe is an ally of the United States. Perhaps because of economic interests and other sensitive issues, the EU powers (France, Britain, Italy, etc.) do not publicly oppose China, but they certainly believe that China's establishment of an ADIZ is an act of aggression against countries in the East Asian region.

- Canada and Latin American countries, Middle Eastern countries, Central Asian countries, South Asian countries, probably have the same mood as the EU powers: disagreeing, even implicitly opposing China's actions, but not publicly declaring.

On the afternoon of December 4, in Washington DC, just hours after the meeting between US Vice President Joe Biden and senior Chinese leaders in Beijing, US State Department Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf used quite strong language regarding the air defense identification zone in the East China Sea that China has just announced. The US does not recognize this ADIZ and believes that China's actions are unilateral, uncoordinated, and some of Beijing's requests related to the ADIZ are not in accordance with international aviation standards.

It is not yet known what benefits China will gain from establishing an air defense identification zone, but it is facing discontent, reactions and criticism from the international community.

3. Purpose, consequences and trends

- No one knows for sure what China wants when establishing the air defense identification zone. World officials and scholars can only guess.

The immediate purpose may be to test the reaction of Japan, South Korea, and especially the United States, and to test the real effectiveness of the 1960 US-Japan Security Treaty (the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are covered by the US-Japan Security Treaty). More broadly, to see the international reaction to China's establishment of the ADIZ.

With this purpose (not the main purpose), they (China) have achieved: China clearly sees the reactions of Japan, Korea, the US and the international community.

Perhaps, the main purpose is to prepare the first steps to create a pretext to accuse Japan of violating China's territorial sovereignty, from which to carry out (limited) military actions to realize China's sovereignty claim over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. There will be no major war between China and Japan. China may use the blitzkrieg tactic to take control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, creating a fait accompli that the US and Japan cannot react to, and then everything will return to "normal"!

Of course, when and how military actions to occupy Senkaku/Diaoyu will take place depends on many domestic and foreign factors.

In all aspects, especially in the foreign affairs field, the establishment of an air defense identification zone overlapping the airspace of Japan and South Korea has damaged China's reputation in the international arena. In general, international public opinion believes that China has been aggressive towards neighboring countries and certainly the international community's trust in China's policy of "peaceful development" has been reduced, even losing trust in China.

This is the biggest consequence, the biggest loss for China after this incident. Normally, overcoming an economic crisis is not as difficult as overcoming a crisis of trust. By establishing an illegal air defense identification zone, China has begun to fall into a crisis of trust with the international community. That is the consequence, the heavy price that China must pay for its aggressive actions.

- What will happen next?

There are three possible scenarios:

One is that China withdraws its decision to establish an air defense identification zone or narrows it down so that it does not overlap with the airspace of Japan and South Korea. For the sake of the dignity and honor of the “Celestial Empire”, the emperor’s order cannot be revoked, and China will not abandon its declared air defense identification zone.

Second, China's radar system operates continuously, surveillance aircraft, early warning aircraft, including fighter aircraft, still fly to monitor and keep watch irregularly (in fact, China does not have the capacity to conduct 24/7 monitoring), and will warn foreign aircraft flying into the ADIZ without complying with the requests of Chinese authorities, but without threats or shooting.

This can be seen as the optimal and most beneficial scenario for China and the international community. With this scenario, no one will win, and no one will lose, and the reputation of a great power will be preserved.

Third, China will take coercive actions, even shooting and launching missiles at foreign aircraft flying in the ADIZ without following the requests of Chinese authorities. Military conflicts will occur.

If this scenario happens, China may win the small battle but lose the big battle, gaining a plate but losing the whole plate! Shooting down a few planes in the ADIZ is not difficult and will gain the “prestige” and muscle power of a big country, thereby sending a message to other countries to be careful! The biggest loss and the hardest to regain is that the international community does not believe that China will develop peacefully.

From now until 2020, China is not strong enough to confront the US, let alone the international community! China's 5th generation of leaders are smart and politically capable enough to restrain themselves and prevent the third scenario from happening. Of course, for China, anything can still happen, even the worst. This is just a forecast. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation and update information to avoid being surprised.

Le Van Cuong