General Cuong comments on the new term of the White House owner

PV:Dear Major General, first of all, could you please summarize so that readers can have a clearer picture of the context within the United States as well as the world at the time Mr. Joe Biden took office as President?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Today (January 20), Mr. Joe Bidenstep into the White House, became the 46th President of the United States, in a difficult and chaotic situation that no one has been able to match since the birth of the United States in 1776. For the first time in hundreds of years, the number 1 superpower is struggling to cope with 3 crises at the same time. The first is the humanitarian crisis of Covid-19, the United States suffered the greatest loss in the world in terms of the number of infected people and the number of deaths. This is the main reason why Mr. Donald Trump failed in the race for a second term. The second is the economic crisis - a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic; inevitably giving rise to complex social problems. The third is the most serious political crisis ever, with the rare event, the "stain on American democracy" when protesters stormed Capitol Hill, broke into the Congress building, forcing lawmakers to evacuate on January 6.

Mr. Trump's departure leaves new leader Biden with many difficult problems. Photo: Getty

Looking more broadly, when the 79-year-old leader took office in Washington, the whole world was also straining to fight Covid-19, a pandemic that many public opinions predicted would likely be pushed back step by step by the end of this year, early next year. Thus, there are still too many complicated problems, how much more must humanity endure?Covid-19 disaster. In addition, the world economy has also fallen into a state of utter collapse, surpassing the Great Depression of 1929-1933. Not only that, the world is divided and quite chaotic, facing the common enemy Covid-19, the great powers are going against the "common principle", not trusting and cooperating with each other. In short, the context of the US and the world is a picture with the main gray tone when Mr. Biden enters the Oval Office.

PV:Can the Major General predict some key features of the new US President Joe Biden's domestic policy this year in particular and the 2021-2024 term in general?

Major General Le Van Cuong:There are two major domestic challenges facing Biden: dealing with the coronavirus and overcoming political divisions in the country.

First and foremost, from today, when entering the White House, Mr. Biden must focus on repelling Covid-19, otherwise the economy will collapse further, society will be more divided and unstable. I think this is the focus of the whole year 2021, Mr. Biden can leave other things for later. Learning from Mr. Donald Trump's mistakes in 2020, certainly this year, Mr. Biden will mobilize all resources, use scientists, cooperate with European allies, Japan... to have the best vaccine to vaccinate the American people.

Covid-19 vaccination in New York City on December 14. Photo: Getty Images

Second, by all means, Mr. Biden will have to gradually overcome the unprecedentedly terrible political divisions in American society today: Divisions between the Democratic and Republican parties, between social classes, between ethnicities, regions... This is not something that can be done overnight, but it must be done.

EventCapitol Hill RiotsThe biggest unknown that has just been raised is how will Mr. Biden “handle” Mr. Trump? Will Mr. Biden and the Democratic Party push the issue to the end? Will Trump be prosecuted? If the answer is “yes”, I think American society will be even more conflicted. Therefore, I am inclined to believe that Mr. Biden will not go all the way in this story.

PV:Regarding the role of the US in multilateral organizations and institutions, will Mr. Biden "correct the mistakes" left by Mr. Trump, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:During his four years as President, Donald Trump withdrew the US from multilateral agreements and institutions such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the P5+1 Agreement with Iran, violated many resolutions of the United Nations Security Council when recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel... Those are the mistakes that Trump "left" for Biden. Personally, I think Biden will most likely bring the US back to the climate change agreement, and will return to the P5+1 agreement with Iran but with a new version, possibly mentioning restrictions, prohibiting the Islamic Republic from researching and producing ballistic missiles. As for the Middle East, Biden will not reverse Trump's decisions, meaning he will not move the US embassy from Jerusalem back to Tel Aviv, leaving open the possibility of peaceful cooperation between Israel and the Arab world. Regarding the Iran issue, Mr. Biden will do everything possible to continue the agenda, the viewpoint of former President Barack Obama was to try to reconcile and avoid military conflict. Other issues in this region will basically remain the same, with no significant changes compared to the Trump era. It is also possible, although not certain, that under Biden, the US will return to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Iran's Shalamcheh missile during a military exercise in the Gulf, near the strategic Strait of Hormuz in September 2020. Photo: AFP

PV:At the regional level, what challenges do you think the emergence of a Democratic leader in the US will face?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In addition to the central issue of the Middle East, Iran, as mentioned above, an equally difficult problem for Mr. Biden isAfghanistan problem. The US has thrown about $1.2 trillion into this, lost about 5,000 lives, and yet it seems that the Taliban is now in a superior position compared to the US-backed government. Secondly, on the North Korea issue, I think Mr. Trump has a misconception when he thinks that he can use his personal relationship with Mr. Kim Jong-un to solve Pyongyang's nuclear program. Perhaps in the next 4 years, although it is unlikely to meet with Biden-Kim, the new US President will try to maintain the flame of dialogue at all levels up to the level of the foreign minister to keep this issue under control.

PV:Can the US alliance with Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia... which has been cracked and collapsed under the "hands" of Mr. Trump be mended in the near future, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Indeed, this is an important task for Mr. Biden. By all means, this leader will restore US-European relations, regaining some of the trust of the "old continent" in the land of the stars and stripes that was eroded during Mr. Trump's four years in power. However, this will be quite difficult and not as simple as many people think, for two reasons: It is not easy to restore the trust that has been lost; and the role and position of the US in the world have also been weakened, making the other side not very eager and happy to restore relations.

In Asia - where America's major rival is China, perhaps this will also be the place where Mr. Biden will give many foreign policy priorities, by all means restoring US-Korea, US-Japan, US-Australia, US-New Zealand relations..., in parallel with strengthening relations with allies Canada and the Middle East. Mr. Biden's tendency will be to form a new set of forces, not "big guns", under the leadership of the US to deal with China.

Mr. Trump believes that he can use his personal relationship with Mr. Kim Jong-un to solve North Korea's nuclear program. Photo: AFP

PV:As the Major General pointed out, perhaps the most thorny issue is America's relationship with China. Where will it go next?

Major General Le Van Cuong:From 2012 to now, Mr. Joe Biden, when he was Vice President under Mr. Obama, had 5 quite friendly and cordial meetings with Mr. Xi Jinping - then Vice President of China. Therefore, some people speculate that Mr. Biden will have an attitude "180 degrees different" from Mr. Trump, but I do not agree. During the recent election campaign, Biden publicly stated that China is America's competitor in the 21st century. Moreover, up to this point, the Democratic and Republican parties as well as American voters have been awakened to the threat posed by China, thanks to Mr. Trump's influence. Therefore, on that basis, if any, Mr. Biden will be different from Mr. Trump in his approach and attitude towards China, and cannot let go of issues such as trade, unfair competition, etc. Mr. Biden will also have a different way of handling things, not as noisy as Mr. Trump, maybe more gentle in his approach, prioritizing cooperation but certainly still very determined to fight against China's violations and shortcomings, and the ability to gather forces of the 46th owner of the White House will be something that Beijing cannot ignore. In short, I think that in the next 4 years of Joe Biden's administration, US-China relations will still be under control, and it is unlikely that the Cold War or Hot War scenario will occur as many people have speculated.

PV:Thank you very much, Major General!