What does Ukraine gain from the rare earth resource agreement with the US?

US President Donald Trump said that an agreement between Washington and Kyiv on Ukraine's natural resources could be worth up to $1 trillion.

According to the American leader, this would offset the cost of the country's aid to Ukraine. Responding to a journalist's question about what Ukraine would receive under the agreement, Trump reiterated the amount of money the U.S. had previously spent on Ukraine and the weapons allocated to the country.

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Without the United States, without our money, without our equipment and weapons, this conflict would have ended very quickly.

US President Donald Trump

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that Washington has yet to agree with Ukraine on the terms of the upcoming deal.

"I can't confirm this. My latest assessment is that it's very close to the finish line," Rubio said in an interview with Fox News.

Could this deal be a bargain?

It should be noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed joint development of Ukraine's underground resources with the Joe Biden administration, including this issue in the so-called victory plan. However, the New York Times reported in mid-December 2024 that Zelensky had twice postponed signing the agreement. The New York Times explained that this was a signal "that Kyiv may be waiting until Trump takes office to consider this agreement an early victory for his administration."

However, even after the Republican victory, Kyiv delayed signing the agreement, attempting to obtain more favorable conditions from Washington and insisting on including security guarantees in the deal.

It is clear that the Ukrainian government has not achieved its goals so far. According to the Financial Times on February 24, Kiev officials, in conversations with the publication, said that despite the lack of clear security guarantees in the terms, they could still agree on "significantly more favorable conditions" and presented the agreement as a way to strengthen relations with the US to improve Ukraine's prospects.

In particular, there are reports that the US has rejected the most stringent demand: paying $500 billion in revenue from the sale of any Ukrainian resources. Instead, Washington and Kyiv will create a fund in which Ukraine will contribute 50% of the profits from state-owned minerals, including oil and gas, as well as related logistics. However, this agreement will not apply to existing oil fields or the operations of Naftogaz and Ukrnafta, the largest gas and oil producers in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, issues such as the size of the US stake in the fund and the agreement on the treaty's jurisdiction remain unresolved. Nevertheless, Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times that the agreement has been approved by the justice, economy, and foreign ministers. According to them, the document will be signed on February 28th, the same day Zelensky is scheduled to travel to Washington. The Ukrainian leader's visit was also confirmed by President Donald Trump at a White House press conference.

Meanwhile, as Ukrainian media reported on February 26, the agreement was drafted in a way that did not require parliamentary ratification. Subsequently, the Ukrainian Cabinet approved the decision to allow the signing of the mineral resources agreement with the United States.

Despite the Ukrainian government's efforts to present the upcoming agreement as a victory, other allies of Kyiv view it as a disadvantage. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, at the Yalta Strategy for Europe (YES) conference, called the agreement "predatory," but he still considered it necessary.

“On the one hand, the terms are too expensive, but the same thing happened with the 1941 Lend-Lend program. I understand the discomfort of thinking that this agreement might be predatory toward Ukraine, but I believe we need to get past this stage to understand what this agreement really is,” Johnson said.

According to the politician, the document contains “positive things” for Ukraine. "I think it has the seeds of hope and progress," Johnson stated.

The Ukrainian parliament, however, holds a different view. Former Deputy Speaker of Parliament Dmytro Razumkov noted that income from Ukrainian deposits would now flow abroad. He also recalled that, at the beginning of his term, President Zelensky promoted an initiative to distribute profits from mineral exploitation to Ukrainian children through the implementation of the 2021 bill "On Economic Passports".

Accordingly, money from rent collected for the use of mineral resources will be accumulated in an account linked to young Ukrainians, which they can use to pay for their education or housing when they grow up. "However, for now, the beneficiaries of Ukraine's resources will be American children," the congressman said.

European requirements

In the context of the US making claims to Ukraine's resources, Europe has also become more active in this regard. Therefore, during his visit to Kyiv on February 24th, the European Commissioner for Industrial Strategy, Stéphane Sejourné, proposed an alternative solution that is "mutually beneficial" for Ukraine.

"Another positive point from Europe is that we would never ask for an agreement that is not beneficial to both sides," Sejourne emphasized.

However, the very next day, the European Commission noted the fact that it was not competing with the US for Ukraine's rare earth resources, as it already had a memorandum of understanding on mineral resources signed with Kyiv in 2021.

At a press conference following talks with his Latvian counterpart Edgars Rinkēvičs, Polish President Andrzej Duda suggested an agreement between Europe and Ukraine regarding mineral resources. According to him, this would not only secure revenue from these resources but also guarantee security for Kyiv.

"The question is who will provide better and more reliable security guarantees. Everything depends on this," President Duda said.

Poverty and devastation for decades to come.

Victoria Fedosova, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasting at the Russian Peoples' Friendship University, noted in a conversation with RT that, judging by the draft agreement being circulated by Western media, it offers no benefits to Ukraine.

“The security guarantee clause that Ukraine demanded was not included. But the income deduction clause remains, albeit modified. The Americans may have removed the $500 billion figure to make it less shocking, but the clause about ‘giving 50% to the Americans’ hasn’t disappeared,” expert Fedosova said.

Experts believe that Trump needs this deal to promote his image domestically, while Europe and Ukraine see it as at least an opportunity to indirectly force the US to protect Ukraine's autonomy.

“But they were wrong to think this would guarantee anything. Zelensky’s legal status is self-evident to President Trump. And if the White House needs to, he can remove Zelensky, back to the election issue. It is still unknown how long after the agreement is signed, investors will flock to Ukraine, and who will insure them in case of an emergency. The implementation of the agreement as envisioned by the US may actually begin even after peace has been achieved, but the form in which Ukraine will adopt to achieve this peace is another matter,” expert Fedosova explained.

Political scientist Vladimir Kornilov firmly believes that the upcoming agreements will have a negative impact on all of Ukraine in the future. Ukraine may be on the verge of becoming a resource colony of the United States.

“Future generations of Ukrainians will fall into financial dependence. But such questions have never particularly worried the current or previous Kiev authorities. Traditionally, they operate on the principle: ‘We will sign now, and then others will sort it out,’” Kornilov observed.