What does Ukraine get from the rare earth resources deal with the US?

US President Donald Trump said that the deal between Washington and Kiev on Ukraine's natural resources could be worth up to $1,000 billion.

According to the US leader, this will cover the cost of the country's aid to Ukraine. Answering a question from one of the journalists about what Ukraine will receive under the agreement, Mr. Trump recalled the amount of money that the US had previously spent on Ukraine and the amount of weapons allocated to the country.

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Without America, without our money, without our equipment and weapons, this conflict would end very quickly.

US President Donald Trump

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has noted that Washington has not yet agreed with Ukraine on the terms of the upcoming deal.

“I can’t confirm that. My latest assessment is that it’s very close to the finish line,” Rubio said in an interview with Fox News.

Could the deal be a bargain?

It should be noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed the joint development of Ukraine's underground resources with the Joe Biden administration, including this issue in the so-called victory plan. However, the New York Times reported that in mid-December 2024, Mr. Zelensky postponed signing the agreement twice. The New York Times explained that this was a signal "that Kiev may be waiting until Mr. Trump takes office to see the agreement as an early victory for his administration."

However, even after the Republicans won, Kiev delayed signing the agreement, trying to get more favorable conditions from Washington and insisting on including provisions on security guarantees in the agreement.

It is clear that the Ukrainian government has so far failed to achieve its goals. According to the Financial Times on February 24, Kiev officials in conversation with this publication said that despite the lack of clear security guarantees in the terms, they could still agree on “significantly more favorable conditions” and presented the deal as a way to strengthen relations with the United States to improve Ukraine’s prospects.

In particular, it is reported that the US side has rejected the most stringent demand: to pay $500 billion in revenue from the sale of any Ukrainian resources. Instead, Washington and Kiev will create a fund to which Ukraine will contribute 50% of the profits from state-owned minerals, including oil and gas, as well as related logistics activities. However, this agreement will not apply to existing oil fields and the activities of Naftogaz and Ukrnafta, the largest gas and oil producers in Ukraine.

At the same time, issues such as the size of the US stake in the fund and the agreement on the treaty’s jurisdiction remain unresolved. However, Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times that the agreement had been approved by the ministers of justice, economy and foreign affairs. They said it would be signed on February 28, the day Mr Zelensky is due to visit Washington. The Ukrainian leader’s visit was also confirmed by President Donald Trump at a White House press conference.

Meanwhile, as Ukrainian media reported on February 26, the agreement was drawn up in a form that did not require parliamentary approval. The Ukrainian Cabinet later approved a decision allowing the signing of a mineral resources agreement with the United States.

Despite the Ukrainian government’s efforts to present the upcoming deal as a victory for them, other allies of Kiev see it as a disadvantage. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference, called the deal “predatory,” but he still sees it as necessary.

“On the one hand, the terms are too expensive, but the same thing happened with Lend-Lease in 1941. I understand the discomfort of thinking that this deal might be predatory towards Ukraine, but I believe we need to get past this stage to understand what this deal really is,” Johnson said.

According to the politician, the document contains “positive things” for Ukraine. “I think it has seeds of hope and progress,” Johnson commented.

The Ukrainian parliament has a different opinion. Former deputy speaker of the Ukrainian parliament Dmytro Razumkov, noted that income from Ukraine's deposits will now flow abroad. He also recalled that, at the beginning of his term, President Zelensky promoted the initiative to distribute profits from mineral extraction to Ukrainian children through the implementation of the 2021 bill "On Economic Passports".

Accordingly, money from rent for the use of mineral resources will be accumulated in an account linked to young Ukrainians, which they can use to pay for their education or housing when they grow up. “However, for now, the beneficiaries of Ukraine’s resources will be American children,” the congressman said.

European requirements

As the US makes demands on Ukraine’s resources, Europe has also become more active in this direction. Thus, during a visit to Kiev on February 24, European Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stéphane Sejourné proposed a “mutually beneficial” alternative to Ukraine.

“Another plus from Europe is that we will never ask for a deal that is not beneficial to both sides,” Mr. Sejourne emphasized.

However, the very next day, the European Commission drew attention to the fact that it does not compete with the United States for Ukraine's rare earth resources, since it has a memorandum of understanding on mineral resources signed with Kiev in 2021.

At a press conference following talks with his Latvian counterpart Edgars Rinkēvičs, Polish President Andrzej Duda hinted at a European-Ukrainian agreement on mineral resources, which, he said, would not only ensure revenues from resources but also ensure Kiev's security.

“The question is who will provide better and more reliable security. Everything depends on this,” said President Duda.

Poverty and devastation for decades to come

Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasting at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Victoria Fedosova, noted in a conversation with RT that, judging by the draft agreement being circulated by Western media, it does not bring any benefits to Ukraine.

“The provision on security guarantees that Ukraine demanded was not included. But the binding provision on income deductions remained, albeit modified. The Americans may have deleted the $500 billion figure so that it would not be so shocking, but the provision on ‘giving 50% to the Americans’ has not disappeared,” Fedosova said.

Experts say that Mr. Trump needs this deal to promote his domestic image, while Europe and Ukraine see this as at least an opportunity to indirectly force the US to protect Ukraine's autonomy.

“But they are wrong to think that this will guarantee anything. Zelensky's legal status is obvious to President Trump. And if the head of the White House needs it, he will remove Zelensky, returning to the election issue. It is not yet known how long investors will flock to Ukraine after the agreement is signed and who will insure them in case of emergency. The implementation of the agreement as conceived by the United States can indeed be implemented even after peace is achieved, but the form in which Ukraine will achieve this peace is another matter,” Fedosova explained.

Political scientist Vladimir Kornilov is convinced that the upcoming agreements will have a negative impact on all of Ukraine in the future. Ukraine may be on the verge of becoming a resource colony of the United States.

“Future generations of Ukrainians will be financially dependent. But such questions have never particularly worried the current or previous Kiev authorities. Traditionally, they operate on the principle: ‘We will sign now, and then others will solve it,’” Kornilov said.