Ukraine still alone when facing the 'giant' Russia?

Russian President Putin may have ordered troops to withdraw from the border area for now, but there is nothing to stop Moscow from repeating the tactic whenever necessary.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on April 22 that his country’s troops would withdraw from positions near the border with Ukraine and return to their regular bases. If fully implemented, the troop withdrawal would help de-escalate the situation after weeks of escalating tensions. Russia’s recent mass mobilization of troops and equipment near the border with Ukraine has raised concerns about a dangerous escalation between the two countries.

While Ukraine and the West may be relieved by Russia’s decision, observers say Russia’s pressure tactics against Ukraine are far from over. While the potential for a large-scale Russian operation may have been avoided for now, a dramatic escalation remains. Crimea and the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine remain under Russian control.

It is unclear whether Russia’s withdrawal applies to all of the troops it has deployed to the Ukrainian border. Speaking in Brussels earlier this week, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Russia had deployed more than 100,000 troops along with a range of advanced military hardware to the Ukrainian border, a figure that is consistent with the joint assessment by the US and Ukraine.

According to Alexander Baunov, an expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center policy research organization, the announcement of the withdrawal of troops was made just one day after Russia warned the West not to cross the "red line" showing that the Kremlin understood that "they had escalated tensions to the necessary level" and it was time to cool down to consider the proposal of the US and Ukraine when the leaders of both countries expressed their desire to have a direct meeting with President Putin.

Ukraine cannot rely on the West forever

At this stage, the crisis seems to have brought some positives to Ukraine. On the domestic front, President Zelensky has had the opportunity to show his leadership the most since his election two years ago.

NATO and its relationship with Ukraine still have a certain gap. Illustrative photo

Mr. Zelensky traveled directly to the front lines in eastern Ukraine, meeting with international leaders, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and French President Emmanuel Macron. He also delivered a “don’t panic” message to the international media, delivered a dramatic speech to the Ukrainian people, including a remarkable message to Russian President Vladimir Putin: “You can’t bring peace on a tank.”

Ukraine also received strong support from the US and the West.In phone calls with both Ukraine and Russia, the United States expressed support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and its willingness to impose costs on the Kremlin. A number of other Western countries have also warned against Russia’s actions.

Many observers believe that Russia's deployment of forces to the border is partly to measure the international community's commitment to Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko, if that is Russia's intention, "Mr. Putin has received a very clear signal that the international community is on Ukraine's side."

That said, Ukraine remains in a precarious security situation. Despite strong statements of support, there has been no significant increase in direct Western military assistance to Kiev. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s increasingly direct and vocal calls for early NATO membership have been ignored.

For this reason, Ukrainians have no illusions about international support for their country. Instead, there is a widespread recognition that, while Ukraine may receive more weapons and access to vital intelligence in the event of an escalation, it will ultimately be alone in the face of a “giant” like Russia.