Gold prices fluctuate around 43 million VND per tael.
Excluding taxes and processing fees, the current price of gold in Vietnam is nearly 2 million VND/ounce higher than the world price.
The SJC gold price (buy-sell) in Hanoi at 10:00 AM on October 10th was trading at 43-43.25 million VND/ounce. In Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Nha Trang, and Can Tho, the gold price was 42.95-43.25 million VND/ounce. Compared to the end of last week, the gold price decreased by 300,000 VND/ounce.
It can be observed that, after the State Bank of Vietnam granted licenses for additional gold imports and gold trading on accounts, as well as moving towards allowing banks to mobilize gold from the public, domestic gold prices have gradually moved closer to world gold prices. From a situation where domestic gold prices were nearly 5 million VND/ounce higher than world prices about 10 days ago, this gap has now narrowed to nearly 2 million VND/ounce.
At the same time, during the Asian trading session on the morning of October 10th, the price of gold was trading at $1,651 per ounce, an increase of $12.4 per ounce compared to the closing price of the previous weekend.
Concerns about sovereign debt in Europe remain a key factor impacting gold prices next week. Most experts predict that gold prices could rise sharply and surpass the psychological mark of $1,700/oz.
In a Kitco News survey, 23 participants, including gold traders, investment banks, and technical analysts, responded. Of these, 16 predicted a price increase this week, 3 predicted a decrease, and 4 predicted a sideways market.
Arnie Waters, director of AL Waters Capital, a fund specializing in precious metals investments, said he is very optimistic about gold and predicts that the price could rise to $2,500/oz in 2012. According to Waters' analysis, gold may currently be experiencing the final pressures from funds liquidating positions in September. Economic problems in the US, Europe, and China will make gold the best investment choice.
Morgan Stanley predicts that gold will be among the highest-yielding basic commodities in 2012 and could set new price records, as investors flock to gold to preserve asset value amid economic difficulties.
Rich DeFalco, President of West Cooper Asset Management, noted that the US Department of Labor's statistics released last weekend showed that the number of unemployed people in the US remained at 14 million, little changed from September, and the unemployment rate remained at 9.1%. Since April 2011, the US unemployment rate has consistently fluctuated between 9 and 9.2%.
The situation in Europe is becoming tense after credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the credit ratings of Italy and Spain.
Supporting the upward trend in gold are a number of major institutions. According to a newly released report, Morgan Stanley has joined Credit Suisse AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in suggesting that gold will be the best-performing asset next year as investors seek to protect their assets against the risk of slowing global economic growth.
According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, gold will rise by approximately 35% in 2012, reaching $2,200/oz and potentially rising to $2,464/oz.
Previously, Goldman Sachs predicted that gold would rise by approximately 20% in 2012, and Credit Suisse AG increased its forecast for the average gold price in 2011 from $1,480/oz to $1,575/oz and in 2012 from $1,540/oz to $1,850/oz.
Gold's status as a safe haven asset could attract demand if investor anxiety resurfaces. However, European instability is not entirely convincing to analysts, with some experts arguing that if the debt crisis leads to a recession in Europe, it could be followed by deflation, and thus, gold's role as an "inflation hedge" would diminish.
On October 10th, the average interbank exchange rate was quoted at 20,653 VND/USD, rising to 20,648 VND. Many commercial banks also increased their USD prices in line with the interbank exchange rate.
According to VOV
