“Gold is a true currency” because central banks cannot print it like money, according to Marc Faber, a famous Swiss investor.

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If you’re in Canada these days, you’ll see how the rise and fall of international currencies drains your wallet. Ever since the US Federal Reserve (FED) hinted, hinted, hesitated and then outright said it would delay the US dollar interest rate hike, the Canadian dollar (CAD) has been rising day by day, despite the oil price skyrocketing to $42/barrel and then slowly falling. Now, even with the fall in oil prices, CAD is still rising against the US dollar after hitting a low of $1 USD = $1.46 CAD (equivalent to VND15,400/CAD at that time).

In most hotels in Montreal, the exchange rate is 1 US dollar to 1 CAD, while the official exchange rate is around 1.3 Canadian dollars to 1 US dollar. Ask a woman at the hotel reception, she said with certainty: "The US dollar will soon be lower than our dollar like it was a few years ago". It is possible. In 2011, wasn't 1 CAD equal to 1.1 US dollars? In restaurants or cafes, if you haven't had time to exchange money and don't have a credit card, and pay in US dollars, they will charge you the same exchange rate.

This is too much!

I went to the National Bank on Sainte Catherine Street to exchange money to be safe. Here, 1 euro was worth 1.4 CAD, lower than the exchange counter in the nearby metro station and of course lower than the official rate of 1 euro = 1.47 CAD. Still, I was lucky. In many places, 1 euro was worth only 1.3 CAD, or even 1.25 CAD. The volatility of currencies forced banks to set an unprecedented spread between buying and selling foreign currencies.

Central banks of developed countries from the US, Japan to Europe, the UK... are racing to print money, racing to lower interest rates in all sorts of ways, and now investors are free to make predictions. After the European Central Bank announced "unlimited" stimulus packages, the euro not only did not lose value, but also rose to 1.14 USD/Euro.

Similarly, the Japanese yen has lost the 112 yen/dollar mark for a day. Hedge funds, speculators including George Soros, who shorted the yuan a few months ago, are now silent as the yuan rises to 6.45 yuan/dollar after nearly touching 6.6 yuan/dollar. China has launched rescue packages worth tens of billions of dollars each time, when liquidity in their currency or stock markets is critical.

Let's talk about gold in Vietnam again. After many years of the State Bank using all sorts of solutions to not be able to eliminate the difference between domestic and foreign gold prices, now the domestic gold price is automatically almost equal to the international price. On April 1, 2016, the international gold price was 1,220 USD/ounce, equivalent to 33.14 million VND/tael (including import tax and processing fee into SJC four-nine gold bars), while banks listed the selling price at 33.26 million VND/tael. If Marc Faber's assessment and prediction are correct, as he had predicted quite accurately about the gold price a few years ago, the future gold price may return to the range of 1,300-1,500 USD/ounce. Domestic gold prices will follow international prices. This week, Marc Faber, a famous Swiss investor, spoke out in praise of gold (in an interview on the Emerging Equity website about the war on cash). He said “gold is an honest currency” because central banks cannot print it like money.

Choosing an investment channel in Vietnam to preserve the money earned by the people is now becoming difficult. Some acquaintances ask each other whether they should turn to buying gold? Many people have converted their US dollar savings books to VND because of the 0%/year interest rate. Saving VND monthly is at least 5%/year, but still worried about inflation. The CPI index in the first quarter of 2016 increased by 0.99% compared to the end of last year. If this year's CPI is around 5% as predicted by economic experts, saving in banks does not seem too... good! The real estate channel is being scrutinized by the draft amendment to Circular 36 of the bank and the 30,000 billion VND package has almost been disbursed.

Stocks continue to be volatile. At the end of the first quarter, the VN-Index fell 2.64% compared to the end of last year. Except for some blue-chips and some stocks with growing business results, most stocks fell. In addition, part of the money poured into stocks is still margin loans, so when the market moves sideways for a long time, it only takes a few sessions of deep decline for securities companies to sell mortgaged stocks to recover debts. Some brokers also provide financial support for stocks on UpCom, of course selectively, and UpCom has a fluctuation range of ±15%/day. After only two consecutive sessions of stocks on UpCom hitting the floor, automatic sell orders are triggered. Unlike Hose or Hnx, UpCom's liquidity is very low, and the sale of mortgaged stocks causes more damage to investors. A stock market lacking money and momentum to move up is still existing longer than expected by investors and regulators.

According to Saigon Economic Times