Why did the coup plotters' F-16s not shoot down the plane carrying the Turkish president?

The coup plotters may have feared losing face by mistakenly shooting down a civilian plane, instead of the plane carrying President Erdogan.

F-16 fighter jets and F-4 aircraft during a Turkish Air Force exercise. Photo: Turkish Air Force

According to the Daily Beast, in the suffocating moments of the July 15 coup in Türkiye, two F-16 fighters of the coup plot locked their radars on the Gulfstream plane carrying Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A Sidewinder missile was all they needed to shoot down the plane and assassinate Mr. Erdogan.

Mr Erdogan was on holiday in Marmaris, on the Mediterranean coast, when the coup broke out. When he was informed by a loyal general, he boarded a twin-engine Gulfstream jet bound for Istanbul, more than 400 miles to the north.

Regularly refueled by KC-135 aircraft, the coup-backed F-16s began searching for the Gulfstream with radar mounted on their noses. “Why they didn’t shoot it down is a mystery,” a former Turkish military officer familiar with the events of July 15 told Reuters.

Perhaps the most plausible explanation is that the Gulfstream disguised itself as a civilian aircraft. The crew is believed to have changed the type of signal used to identify the aircraft. The Gulfstream assumed the identity of THY 8456, a Turkish Airlines flight.

The coup pilots could not risk attacking a plane whose identity they were not sure of. "The risk of shooting down a plane other than the president and losing credibility may have been the factor that prevented the coup F-16s from shooting down the Gulfstream," wrote David Cenciotti, an Italian aviation expert at The Aviationist.

Initially, Mr Erdogan was unable to land because Istanbul's Ataturk airport was under control of the coup plotters. Forces loyal to the president were quickly mobilized. Istanbul's airport was reopened and Mr Erdogan's plane landed safely.

Speaking to CNN later, the president gave a slightly different account than other sources. Others said his plane nearly collided with a coup plotter plane in mid-air. Erdogan described the rebel plane flying directly overhead, causing a sonic boom.

The role of air force

During the 24-hour coup, the anti-government forces controlled at least four F-16 fighters, about four KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft, at least two Blackhawk transport helicopters, at least one Cobra helicopter gunship, two AS532 rescue helicopters, about six C-160 and C-130 transport aircraft, and two giant four-engine A400 transport aircraft, which entered service with the Turkish Air Force just two years ago.

"It seems that the coup plotters' air force is very well organized," said Arda Mevlutoglu, a Turkish journalist specializing in the military.

At 10 p.m. on July 15, two pairs of F-16 fighter jets took off from Akinci Air Base, north of Ankara. A coup-affiliated air traffic controller called a colleague at Ankara’s Esenboga airport and fabricated a story to cover up the plot. The F-16s would be flying at high altitudes over Ankara and would have difficulty coordinating with local air traffic control, the coup-affiliated controller said, according to Cenciotti.

Instead, the F-16s circled low over Ankara and used fire.

Cobra attack helicopters and a Blackhawk also took part in the fighting. They fired on a police headquarters, killing 47 people. One plane also attacked the aviation police headquarters, causing damage and destroying several aircraft, according to Mevlutoglu. The parliament building, the intelligence agency headquarters, the satellite control center and the presidential palace were also attacked.

As the coup began to turn in the government’s favor, government F-16s shot down a Cobra and a Blackhawk belonging to the rebels. At least one of Erdogan’s F-16s intercepted a KC-135 over Kastamonu in northern Turkey but did not shoot it down, “possibly because it was flying over a residential area,” Cenciotti speculated. The KC-135 is highly flammable because it carries a lot of fuel. If it had crashed in Kastamonu, it could have killed many people on the ground.

Instead, pro-Erdogan forces cut off power to Incirlik Air Base, where the KC-135s took off. The US Air Force also bases its fighter jets at Incirlik for use in airstrikes against IS in Iraq and Syria, and stores some nuclear bombs at the facility. The US forces were forced to switch to generators and suspend flights.

When the coup failed, eight transport planes of the coup plotters delivered a load of weapons to Malatya, in central Türkiye, to arm the anti-Erdogan forces. But Erdogan called on his supporters to rise up against the rebels, and they heeded his call. Thousands of ordinary Turks took to the streets to join forces with the government forces.

Some of the coup leaders fled to Greece in a Blackhawk helicopter. After the coup plotters surrendered, Erdogan's forces arrested about 7,500 people.

Government forces continued to defend the airspace after the coup ended. An F-4 bombed the runway at Akinci, where rebels had deployed F-16 fighters. Government F-16s, supported by an E-7 early warning aircraft, patrolled west of Ankara to block the rebels from escaping by air.

With 60,000 pilots and nearly 700 aircraft, the Turkish air force is one of the most powerful in Europe. The failed coup and the purge that followed will likely affect its strength. “Its operational capability will be severely damaged,” Mevlutoglu said.

According to VNE