The Turkish president's tough statements are believed to stem from the realization that Russia will not be able to push the situation beyond control.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Photo: Reuters

On November 27, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that Russia was "playing with fire" by bombing convoys carrying oil and supplies in the Syrian border region, where Turkish rebel groups backed by Ankara are operating. He also refused to apologize to Russia for the downing of the Su-24, claiming that the Turkish air force had "acted correctly."

Observers believe that these statements partly reflect Erdogan's personality, but they also indicate that Türkiye is calculating that Russia will not be able to escalate the situation too far after the downing of the plane, according to Le Monde.

Scholar Giray Sadik of Yildirim Beyazit University in Ankara argues that President Erdogan's tough stance reflects the calculations of this seasoned politician. It seems Erdogan anticipated the level of response from Moscow and believed that Russia would not be able to escalate the situation beyond control and lead to war, as this would be more detrimental to Russia than to Türkiye, given the deteriorating relations between Russia and the West.

Russia's greatest fear in the event of war is that Türkiye will immediately close the Dardanelles Strait in the northwest of the country, the shortest route connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean for Russia to resupply its forces in Syria. According to the Montreux Convention, which sets international rules for the use of straits, Türkiye could close the strait if the two countries were at war.

Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a US-based political consulting firm, believes Erdogan's attitude demonstrates his understanding that Russia would gain nothing from a strong reaction. President Putin currently has many other important geopolitical objectives to consider.

Isabelle Facon, an expert at the Foundation for Strategic Research, analyzed that by declaring there was no reason to apologize to Russia for shooting down the Su-24 bomber, Erdogan seemed to have accepted sacrificing the Russia-Turkey relationship in order to draw the world's attention to Ankara's role on the political chessboard of the Middle East in general and Syria in particular.

"Since Russia began its airstrikes in Syria, Türkiye's role in the region seems to have been completely ignored. This is an unacceptable disgrace for an ambitious politician like Erdogan," Falcon assessed.

According to Falcon, President Erdogan's tough stance shows that he wants to assert Türkiye as a major power, and that any parties involved, including the US and NATO, who want to intervene in the Middle East cannot ignore Türkiye's role, as they have done in the past.

Dardanelles Strait. Graphic: Quickgs

Understanding Russia's weaknesses

Julien Nocetti, an expert at the French Institute of International Relations, believes that Erdogan's tough stance suggests Turkey seems to have "figured out" Russia and is confident that even if Russia reacts strongly, it will not significantly worsen relations between the two countries. This is because Russia and Turkey share significant economic interests, and Russia, in any case, will prioritize avoiding a serious breakdown in relations with Türkiye.

Turkish energy expert Necdet Pamir emphasized that the current situation is unlikely to escalate further because Moscow does not want to jeopardize its energy policy with Ankara.

Following tensions related to Ukraine, Russia is exploring the construction of a new gas pipeline through Türkiye, aiming to make Türkiye a major transit country for Russian gas to Europe. Pamir believes that Russia will continue to sell gas to Türkiye in the future despite the deteriorating relations between the two countries.

According to Le Monde, Russian Deputy Energy Minister Anatoly Yanovsky has confirmed that Russia will continue to supply natural gas to Türkiye in accordance with commitments under previous contracts.

"Time will pass, and things will return to normal. The important thing is that Erdogan has made his voice heard by the people at home, as well as by a segment of the Turk population living in the Syrian border region adjacent to Turkey," Nocetti emphasized.

Following the downing of the Su-24, alongside the prevailing sentiment that Türkiye should be severely and mercilessly punished, Russian media also featured numerous expert opinions aimed at de-escalating the situation and drawing Turkey closer to Russia.

These experts argue that the geopolitical and religious goals of Russia and Türkiye are not necessarily contradictory, and may even be quite closely related. A significant component of Russian culture has Turkish elements, stemming primarily from the Tatar people.

Nurettin Altundeger, Vice President of the Center for Legal, Moral and Political Studies in Ankara, suggests that Erdogan seems aware of Turkey's indispensable role for Russia in the strategy of preventing the formation of an anti-Russian alliance that is threatening to emerge in Europe following the Ukraine crisis.

"This realization has given President Erdogan enough confidence to adopt a tough stance, but the goal is not to challenge Russia, but to seek greater respect from Moscow for its role in the Middle East," Altundeger emphasized.

Russia's S-400 missile system has been deployed to Syria. Photo: RT

According to VNE