Vietnam buys S-400, Su-35 to build "firewall" against access in the East Sea

Vietnam has also decided to build its own anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy and purchase more anti-ship missiles from Russia, The Interpreter noted.

Russia's Su-35 fighter jet is attracting attention from many countries.

Russia's Su-35 fighter jet is attracting the attention of many countries. In an analysis published on April 12 on The Interpreter website of Australia's Lowy Institute for International Policy, expert Henrik Paulsson of the Singapore Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies analyzed China's strategy to gain control of the airspace in the East Sea and the strength and ability to respond of three Southeast Asian countries.

On April 13, China was accused by the US of sending 16 J-11 fighter jets to Phu Lam Island, part of Vietnam's Hoang Sa archipelago. Combined with the HQ-9 air defense missile systems and radars deployed on the island, along with other radar systems in the Truong Sa archipelago, Beijing is believed to be capable of controlling the entire airspace of the East Sea. The question is, given China's strength, what can the air forces of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines do?

According to Paulsson, most recent strategic analysis of the South China Sea has focused primarily on the naval domain, with Vietnam and Malaysia acquiring new submarines, or the US Navy’s freedom of navigation operations in disputed waters. In contrast, the air domain has been neglected, or only mentioned in passing. Can Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines challenge China’s encroachment in the air? Paulsson estimates that China’s aircraft numbers far exceed anything Vietnam, Malaysia, or the Philippines currently have. The Guangzhou Military Region alone has about 158 ​​modern fighters and 164 older ones, in both the air force and naval air force. Most of the new fighters are Sukhoi Su-27s, of which there are about 110.

Just counting the logistics facilities and airbase capacity in the Guangzhou Military Region alone, China can deploy a force with aircraft and firepower far exceeding all of its opponents combined.

On the side of the three Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam has 40 modern aircraft of a newer type than the Su-27, including 29 Su-30MK2s, one of the most advanced versions on the market today. Vietnam also has 61 older aircraft, but their quality is not reliable.

Malaysia also has 18 new generation Su-30MKMs in its fighter fleet, in addition to 43 older aircraft of various types. Compared to Malaysia and Vietnam, the Philippine air force is the weakest, with only 12 FA-50 light fighters recently ordered from South Korea. The air forces of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines have a certain geographical advantage – the disputed islands are closer to their air bases than to Chinese bases.

Old fighter jets from the Vietnamese and Malaysian air forces can easily reach their island territories. The Philippines has a similar advantage, but has fewer aircraft.

However, China is not completely at a disadvantage. The Su-27 has a fairly long range, so it can conduct combat operations from bases on Hainan Island. However, the farther the distance between the base and the target, the less time is available for performing primary missions, for patrolling far offshore. Therefore, Chinese aircraft can hardly conduct actual patrol or air combat operations in a place as far from the base as in the East Sea. That is why China really needs bases near the Spratly Islands.

In 1990, China built a 2,700-meter runway on Woody Island in the Paracels, long enough to accommodate any of China's existing fighter jets. And China has not limited itself to a single runway on Woody Island.

They have also built a large radar system and made room for missile launchers. China has deployed advanced fighter jets and long-range HQ-9 air defense missiles to Woody Island. From Woody Island, Chinese fighter jets can control almost the entire South China Sea. Further south, in the Spratly Islands, airfields and air defense systems built on Subi and Fiery Cross reefs are nearing completion, along with other Chinese facilities such as radars and missile launchers.

From those island air bases, even older Chinese fighters could engage in air combat, and attack Malaysian and Philippine bases almost at will, since both countries lack effective air defense capabilities.

The airfields, combined with missile batteries, form a network of interlocking zones capable of thwarting any attempt to attack China’s islands. Initially focused on countering naval penetration, China has developed an air defense version of anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) tactics, allowing Beijing to deter any potential threats to its island bases from afar.

While some analysts argue that China’s island bases and associated air and naval forces are easy targets, that assumes the United States will intervene militarily in the conflict. But Vietnam and Malaysia cannot count on American support. The Philippines has a defense treaty with the United States, but recent plans in the Philippine air force suggest a desire to improve its own capabilities.

The air power of the countries surrounding the South China Sea is still no match for China, and it is very likely that these countries will have difficulty holding out against sustained Chinese attacks. The most they can do is slow down China's advance.

All three countries, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines, are aware of their vulnerability and have prepared to counter it in different ways. In November 2015, Malaysia held a major air force exercise, involving Su-30MKM (Russian), F/A-18D (American) and BAE Hawk (British). They practiced air combat, air defense suppression and precision bombing – activities that could potentially be used against a specific enemy. The exercise was launched from Labuan Air Base, just south of the Spratly Islands. In addition, Malaysia is looking to continue purchasing new advanced fighter jets to upgrade and strengthen its air force.

Vietnam has also recognized its vulnerability in the air, and has announced its intention to buy more than a dozen more Sukhois, most likely the new Su-35. Hanoi has also purchased the Russian S-300 air defense missile system, and intends to buy an upgraded version of the S-400, and to supplement its low-altitude defenses with the lighter Igla-1s.

Vietnam did not stop there, Hanoi also decided to build its own A2/AD area denial strategy and purchased more anti-ship missiles from Russia.

The Philippines is a country that has a lot to do to prepare for conflict with China, whether in the air or at sea. The Philippine Air Force’s long-term plan is to equip itself by 2021 not only with advanced fighter jets, but also with airborne early warning systems—something other countries have not publicly announced—as well as ground-based radars and air defense missiles.

All three countries are eyeing new fighter jets: the Saab JAS-39 Gripen, the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Dassault Rafale, the upgraded F-16V, and the Sukhoi Su-35. It is unclear which country will buy which, but given Vietnam’s history of buying Russian weapons, the Su-35 is the most likely. The Philippines seems to favor the JAS-39, while Malaysia has a history of buying both Russian and Western fighter jets, so the choice is uncertain.

Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have all seen threats, not only at sea, which the US think tank RAND has proposed to counter with a network of anti-ship missiles, but also in the air. If these countries can acquire, and learn to use and deploy these weapons effectively, they can counter and deter Chinese aggression more forcefully than just rhetoric and stalling tactics. They can challenge Beijing in the air and support their naval modernization.

According to tin tuc.vn