Vietnam acquires S-400 and Su-35 missiles to build an anti-access/area denial "firewall" in the South China Sea.

Vietnam has also decided to develop its own anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy and purchase more anti-ship missiles from Russia, The Interpreter noted.

Russia's Su-35 fighter jet is attracting interest from many countries.

Russia's Su-35 fighter jet is attracting attention from many countries. In an analysis published on April 12th on The Interpreter website of the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Australia, expert Henrik Paulsson of the Singapore Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies analyzed China's strategy to gain control of the South China Sea airspace and the capabilities and ability of three Southeast Asian nations to counter it.

On April 13, China was accused by the US of deploying 16 J-11 fighter jets to Phu Lam Island, part of Vietnam's Hoang Sa (Paracel) Islands. Adding to this the HQ-9 air defense missile systems and radar already deployed on the island, along with other radar systems in the Truong Sa (Spratly) Islands, Beijing is believed to have the capability to control the entire airspace of the South China Sea. The question is: in the face of China's superior strength, what can the air forces of Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines do?

According to Paulsson, most recent strategic analyses of the South China Sea have focused primarily on the naval sphere, citing Vietnam and Malaysia's acquisition of new submarines, or the US Navy's freedom of navigation operations in the disputed waters. Conversely, the air force has been neglected or only briefly mentioned. Can Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines challenge China's air encroachment? Paulsson estimates that the number of Chinese aircraft far exceeds anything Vietnam, Malaysia, or the Philippines currently possess. The Guangzhou military region alone has approximately 158 modern fighter jets and 164 older ones, belonging to both the air force and naval air force. The majority of the new fighter jets are Sukhoi Su-27s, numbering around 110.

Considering only the logistical facilities and air base capacity in the Guangzhou military region, China can deploy a force with more aircraft and firepower than all its adversaries combined.

Regarding the three Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam has 40 modern aircraft of a newer type than the Su-27, including 29 Su-30MK2s, one of the most advanced versions currently on the market. Vietnam also has 61 older aircraft, but their quality is not reliable.

Malaysia also possesses 18 new-generation Su-30MKM fighter jets in its fleet, alongside 43 older aircraft of various types. Compared to Malaysia and Vietnam, the Philippine Air Force is the weakest, with only 12 new FA-50 light fighter jets ordered from South Korea. The air forces of Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines have a distinct geographical advantage – the disputed islands are closer to their air bases than to Chinese bases.

The older fighter jets of the Vietnamese and Malaysian air forces can easily fly to their island territories. The Philippines has a similar advantage, but fewer aircraft.

However, China is not entirely at a disadvantage. The Su-27 has a fairly long range, allowing it to conduct combat operations from bases on Hainan Island. However, the greater the distance between the base and the target, the less time is available for carrying out core missions and patrolling far offshore. Therefore, Chinese aircraft are unlikely to be able to effectively conduct patrol or combat operations in areas far from their bases, such as the South China Sea. This is why China desperately needs bases near the Spratly Islands.

In 1990, China built a 2,700-meter-long runway on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands, long enough for any existing Chinese fighter jet. And China did not limit itself to a single runway on Woody Island.

They also built a large radar system and made room for missile launchers. China has deployed modern fighter jets and HQ-9 long-range anti-aircraft missiles to Phu Lam Island. From Phu Lam, Chinese fighter jets can control almost the entire South China Sea. Further south, in the Spratly Islands, airfields and air defense systems built on Subi and Fiery Cross reefs are nearing completion, in addition to other Chinese facilities such as radar and missile launchers.

From those island air bases, even older Chinese fighter jets could engage in air combat, and attack Malaysian and Philippine bases almost at any time, as both countries lack effective air defenses.

The airfields, combined with missile batteries, form a network of interwoven zones capable of thwarting any attempts to attack China's islands. Initially focused primarily on countering naval incursions, China has developed an air defense version of the anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) tactic, enabling Beijing to remotely deter any potential threats to its island bases.

Although some analysts argue that China's island bases and associated air and naval forces are easy targets to eliminate, this assumes that the U.S. would intervene militarily in a conflict. However, Vietnam and Malaysia cannot rely on U.S. support. The Philippines has a defense treaty with the U.S., but recent plans within the Philippine Air Force suggest a desire to improve its own capabilities.

The air power of the countries surrounding the South China Sea still cannot match that of China, and it is highly likely that these countries would struggle to withstand a prolonged Chinese offensive. The most they can do is to slow China's advance.

All three countries—Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines—are aware of their weaknesses and have prepared to counter them in different ways. In November 2015, Malaysia held a major air force exercise, deploying Su-30MKM (Russia), F/A-18D (USA), and BAE Hawk (UK) aircraft. They practiced air combat, destroying air defense systems, and precision bombing—activities that could potentially be used against a specific enemy. The exercise was launched from Labuan Air Base, just south of the Spratly Islands. Furthermore, Malaysia intends to continue purchasing new, advanced fighter jets to upgrade and strengthen its air force.

Vietnam has also recognized its air defense weaknesses and has announced its intention to purchase more than a dozen Sukhoi aircraft, most likely the newer Su-35 models. Hanoi has also purchased the Russian S-300 air defense missile system and intends to buy an upgraded S-400 version, as well as equipping itself with the more compact Igla-1s individual missiles for low-altitude defense.

Vietnam didn't stop there; Hanoi also decided to develop its own anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy and purchase more anti-ship missiles from Russia.

The Philippines has a lot to do to prepare for conflict with China, whether in the air or at sea. The Philippine Air Force's long-term plan is to equip itself by 2021 not only with state-of-the-art fighter jets, but also with airborne early warning systems – something other countries don't openly declare – as well as ground-based radar and air defense missile systems.

All three countries are interested in new fighter jets such as the Saab JAS-39 Gripen, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, upgraded F-16V, and Sukhoi Su-35. It is unclear which country will buy which, but given Vietnam's frequent purchases of Russian weapons, the Su-35 is the most likely option. The Philippines seems to favor the JAS-39, while Malaysia, with its tradition of purchasing fighter jets from both Russia and the West, makes its choice difficult to predict.

Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have all recognized the threats, not only at sea, but also in the air, as the American research center RAND has proposed. If these countries can acquire, and learn how to use and deploy, these weapons effectively, they could counter and deter Chinese aggression more forcefully, rather than just with words and delaying tactics. They could challenge Beijing in the air and support the modernization of their naval forces.

According to tintuc.vn