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(Baonghean) - President Xi Jinping came to power in the context of China's economy being in a period of brilliant development and world relations having many complicated developments. Nghe An Newspaper reporter had an interview with Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong - former Director of the Institute of Strategic Sciences - Ministry of Public Security to look back on the 2-year tenure of the leader of the most populous country in the world.

Souvenir for tourists: "Xi Jinping Era", comparable to "Mao Zedong Era".

PV:Major General, what are the differences in Xi Jinping's leadership style compared to his predecessors?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In my opinion, compared with his predecessors, Mr. Xi Jinping has the following differences:

First, although not public, in the past 30 years, there have always been three main political factions in Chinese politics: the “crown prince” faction – that is, the children of the founding fathers; the Shanghai faction led by Jiang Zemin; and the Youth League faction, consisting of people who came from the Youth League cadres. Of the three factions, Xi Jinping belongs to the “crown prince” faction, because Xi Jinping is the son of Xi Zhongxun – one of the founding fathers of the People’s Republic of China, and a comrade-in-arms with Mao Zedong from the time of Party building to the time of nation building. Meanwhile, Jiang Zemin belongs to the Shanghai faction and Hu Jintao belongs to the Youth League faction.

Second, the current President's official career has progressed from low to high. Xi Jinping has been a Party cell secretary, a grassroots Party secretary, a corporation secretary, a provincial Party secretary, etc., and has reached his current position. Meanwhile, Hu Jintao is considered to have "leapfrogged" his way to the highest position in the Party. Thus, it can be said that Xi Jinping has experienced all the levels of power in China. Because of this, I believe that, unlike his predecessor, Xi Jinping is a person who understands the internal affairs very well, thoroughly understanding all the thoughts, feelings, and aspirations of the people.

Third, Xi Jinping's rise to the top of the current power ladder was not appointed by Deng Xiaoping. Xi Jinping became General Secretary and President after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. From the perspective of a political researcher, I believe that Xi Jinping's current position is the result of an agreement between the three factions. Meanwhile, both Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao were appointed by Deng Xiaoping.

Fourth, this is a very different characteristic of Xi Jinping's style and personality compared to his predecessors, which is that he always leaves a deep good impression with his approachable style when interacting with people, cadres, party members and even foreign guests. Not long ago, the leader of the most populous country in the world once lined up to buy dumplings at a store. That proves that he is not an official - the image often seen in those who held the pinnacle of power in China. However, in handling work, Mr. Xi shows himself to be extremely decisive and clear. It can be said that this is Mr. Xi Jinping's most outstanding style. In a recently published book, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew wrote: "He is a discreet person, he never reveals what he likes and dislikes and often smiles happily whether you say something that bothers him or not...".

PV: TMajor General, how do you evaluate the advantages and difficulties both domestically and internationally during Xi Jinping's two years in power?

Major General Le Van Cuong:It can be said that Xi Jinping's advantage when coming to power is that after 34 years of reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has achieved extremely brilliant achievements, making the whole world admire. From an economy that received little attention from the world, in 2012, China had the second largest GDP in the world (after the US). It can be said that in the 5,000-year history of human civilization development, no country has had such miraculous development as China in the economic field; in the military: China is currently one of the three leading military powers in the world (after the US and Russia); in science and technology: China is currently one of the three countries that have sent people into space (along with the US and Russia). Because of these achievements, China is respected by the whole world.

However, that is just the “other side of the coin”, because domestic challenges are not small. As we know, after 34 years, with the motto of "catching up with France and surpassing France, catching up with England and surpassing England, catching up with Germany and surpassing Germany... All of them developed according to quantity, so the Chinese economy has accumulated inevitable "sick" problems. Remember, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao once said right before the 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China in early 2012: "The Chinese economy is currently unbalanced, unreasonable and unsustainable...". What Mr. Wen Jiabao said is still completely true, an economy that develops in breadth, extensively, chasing quantity but with very low quality. For example, to produce 1 USD of goods and services, China consumes 3 times more energy than Japan, 2.8 times more than Germany and 3 times more than the US. This proves that this economy is very inefficient, wastes resources and this is the biggest "tumor" of the Chinese economy after 34 years of reform. Another thing worth mentioning is public debt and real estate bubble, China's public debt has now exceeded 100% of GDP.

Socially, according to statistics, the gap between rich and poor in China is currently very large and is one of the countries with the most gap between rich and poor in the world. For example, only 0.4% of the population belonging to the millionaire group (about less than 500,000 people) holds up to 70% of the assets of all of China. This large gap between rich and poor has accumulated many social problems, in addition to the corrupt, bureaucratic, and corrupt officials that make people dissatisfied. Every year in China, hundreds of protests with a scale of over 100 people take place.

Regarding the environment, although it is one of the developing countries, with an average per capita income of only about 5-6 thousand USD, China is one of the most polluted countries in the world. Specifically, out of 20 cities with high levels of environmental pollution, China alone has 15 cities on this list. Thus, the domestic context in terms of economy, politics, society and environment when Mr. Tap came to power was extremely difficult.

As for the international context, Xi Jinping came to power in the context of the US implementing its pivot strategy to Asia-Pacific, which is an extremely important strategic shift that directly impacts China. Therefore, whether China wants it or not, it still has to deal with it. The second problem Xi Jinping faces is terrorism, and it has spread to China, even taking place in Tiananmen Square, not just in Tibet, Xinjiang...

Thus, it can be said that Mr. Tap came to power in a context where Chinese society and the world placed on his shoulders many important problems that his predecessors had never had to endure.

PV:Chinese leaders often put forward strategic ideas, such as Mr. Deng Xiaoping with the Deng Xiaoping theory; Jiang Zemin with the three represents ideology, Hu Jintao with the scientific development perspective... What issue did Mr. Xi Jinping put forward in his leadership philosophy, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong: It can be said that, in terms of basic theory, most of Mr. Tap's predecessors have put forward, and in a certain aspect, it has included all of China's current problems. However, in the context of Chinese society facing many problems as mentioned above, Mr. Tap Can Binh put forward the "Chinese dream" to revive the greatness of the Chinese people. I think this is one of the very wise choices, because in such a complicated context both domestically and internationally, his putting forward the slogan "Chinese Dream" will make more than 1.35 billion Chinese people "less" pay attention to the internal problems that are causing frustration.

PV: Regarding the anti-corruption campaign initiated by Mr. Tap, there is public opinion that Mr. Tap Can Binh is using the anti-corruption campaign to purge political opponents. What is the Major General's comment on this issue?

Major General Le Van Cuong: The first thing I want to say is that the problem of corruption in China is not new, but this is a "deep-rooted" problem in the 4,000-year history of development of this country. However, in each period there are different types of corruption. For example, in the Mao Zedong era, corruption was mainly about privileges and benefits. And since the Deng Xiaoping era, when development and international integration were objective conditions for corruption to grow like mushrooms after rain as it is today.

I think that it is not objective to say that Xi Jinping used anti-corruption to purge political opponents, because in more than 20 months in power, Xi has removed or imprisoned more than 70 high-ranking officials (from deputy minister and above at the central level, vice chairman of the province and above at the local level). Among them are people who are considered "big tigers", such as the case of Bo Xilai - Politburo member, Secretary of Chongqing province; or the case of Zhou Yongkang - Politburo Standing Committee member - the person in charge of the entire security, police, intelligence, control, and court sectors for more than 10 years; the case of Xu Caihou - Politburo member, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission; Guo Boxiong - Politburo member, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. These two people are considered the right and left arms of his predecessor Hu Jintao... All those who have just "fallen from their horses" are very obvious criminals. Like Zhou Yongkang, Bo Xilai, and Xu Caihou, they are all extremely greedy people with unconventional lifestyles, one could even say debauched, which has made Chinese public opinion extremely indignant.

PV:Major General, can you tell us what are the outstanding features of Xi Jinping's foreign policy?

Major General Le Van Cuong: In my opinion, there are three characteristics of China's foreign policy that not only Xi Jinping but also from Mao Zedong to Hu Jintao have implemented, which are: "far diplomacy, near attack". That is, to have friendly relations with distant countries but oppress, coerce, and invade neighboring countries close by. The only thing is that Xi Jinping is different from his predecessors in that he always pursues the issue to the end. For example, China has now established very close political and economic relations with Africa and Latin America, South Asian countries, Central Asian countries, etc. Meanwhile, neighboring countries such as India, Japan, Vietnam, etc. are always causing trouble. What is new about Xi is that he has put forward a viewpoint to organize and expand a wide network of partners around the world; the second characteristic is "soft manipulation, hard release". Typically, in 2013, Xi Jinping deployed an air defense identification zone that encompassed the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

This is an extremely unreasonable action and despite warnings from Japan. However, when US President Barack Obama visited Japan and publicly declared that, according to Article 51 of the Bilateral Security Agreement, the United States is responsible for protecting the territorial integrity of its ally Japan, including the Senkaku. When the US spoke out so strongly, China immediately "backed down". This is also a great lesson for Vietnam, because in the thousands of years of building and defending the country of our people (since the time of Thuc An Duong Vuong), whenever we were weak, China invaded. And the last characteristic in foreign policy is pragmatism. China currently has a surplus of about 4 trillion USD in its treasury. They use the money to invest widely and "buy" and attract Africa, South and Central Asian countries... Thus, in my opinion, these are the two most notable highlights in Xi Jinping's foreign policy in more than 20 months since taking power.

PV:According to Major General, how will Xi Jinping's foreign policy impact the situation in the East Sea in the coming time?

Major General Le Van Cuong: In my opinion, the East Sea dispute can be said to be an extremely complicated and persistent dispute. In the world, there are about 50 points of maritime disputes, but the East Sea dispute is different, shown in the following points: The East Sea is located on the busiest shipping route in the world, the figure of 33% of shipping services passing through the East Sea speaks to all of this importance. Therefore, almost all countries in the world benefit from this shipping route. And the East Sea dispute is also the most unbalanced dispute in the world, China is too big, while the Philippines or Vietnam are too small compared to China. As for the scenario of this dispute, in my opinion, there will be the following 3 scenarios:

The first and best scenario is that China will stop being aggressive and sit down with related countries such as Vietnam or ASEAN to resolve disputes peacefully, moving towards building and signing an agreement on the Code of Conduct in the East Sea (COC). Thus, the East Sea will be very peaceful and stable, which will benefit not only Vietnam, ASEAN, China but also many other countries in the world. However, I think this is just the scenario that we pursue and is supported by the international community, but certainly China will never stop pursuing its ambition to monopolize the East Sea. Therefore, this scenario is unlikely to happen.

The second and worst scenario is that China will use its military power to monopolize and control the East Sea, which they can do. Even if this happens, the fact that they occupy the East Sea but lose the world is obviously too high a price for China. Because when mobilizing the Navy, Army, and Air Force to occupy the East Sea, China will reveal its aggressive and cruel face and will certainly be isolated by the world. If China is isolated by the international community, this country will certainly fall into chaos and China will never become a great power. I think that from now until 2022, Mr. Xi will not do something foolish like occupying the East Sea by military force. Thus, this worst scenario is unlikely to happen, at least until the end of Xi Jinping's term.

Scenario 3, China will use the strategy of "winning without fighting" of the great military man Guan Zhong in Chinese history. So, the question is why not fight but win. That is through the renovation of Gac Ma and Chu Thap islands, combined with Scarborough Shoal to create a blockade that no warship can enter the East Sea. China is currently renovating Gac Ma island into a military airport with a 2,800m long runway, Chu Thap island has a 3,600m runway, here the strategic bombers H6 and H-6K can take off and land. In addition, there is a port for warships from 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons to dock. Remember that the strategic bombers H6 and H-6K have an operating range of 1,800 to 3,500 km, can carry 9 ballistic missiles with a range of 2,000 km. When China finishes renovating Gac Ma and Chu Thap islands, the entire Malacca Strait and ASEAN countries will be under China's control. And at that time, no American warship will be able to enter the East Sea.

In parallel with this, China is currently sending thousands of armed fishing and coast guard ships to chase away fishing boats from Vietnam and other ASEAN countries right in the exclusive economic zones of those countries... all in service of realizing the absurd nine-dash line that China has drawn.

Through analysis, it can be seen that China is applying a strategy of winning without fighting in the East Sea dispute. This is clearly an extremely sinister plot and extremely difficult to deal with. Therefore, we need to closely monitor and be extremely vigilant, because in the near future, there may not be a fierce dispute but it will be very fierce, because China's current actions are violating the sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction of Vietnam and many other countries in the East Sea.

PV:Thank you very much, Major General!

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