Wuhan Coronavirus: Fear Is the Real Danger
(Baonghean.vn) - The new disease that emerged in Wuhan, China in recent weeks has created panic and fear headlines all over the world. But as history has shown many times, although the death toll is sad, it is the overreaction that is extremely dangerous.
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| Medical staff in protective suits carry a patient suspected of being infected with the virus out of an apartment in Wuhan, China. Photo: AFP |
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global emergency on January 31 over the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV), as China announced that the death toll from the virus had risen to 213, with nearly 10,000 cases. Most of the deaths and infections are in China, although there are about 100 other cases in 20 countries around the world. According to the British medical journal The Lancet, the disease is very similar to two coronaviruses found in bats. Therefore, the disease can be transmitted to humans from bats, through animals sold at a market in Wuhan.
The virus can also be transmitted from person to person, with the first such case reported in Europe, in Germany on January 28, and transmission can occur before symptoms appear. While most people infected have only mild symptoms, about 20% of cases have severe symptoms, including pneumonia, respiratory failure and death.
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| Paramilitary officers wearing face masks line up in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing on January 30. Photo: Reuters |
Overreaction is more dangerous than the virus
Wuhan and surrounding areas have been locked down by Chinese authorities, Chinese New Year celebrations have been curtailed and holidays extended in an effort to limit the spread of the disease. In countries such as the UK and Australia, people from these areas are being quarantined, and many major airlines have suspended flights to mainland China.
But while these measures may be a short-term way to limit the spread of the virus, prolonging them over time or increasing public anxiety could actually cause more harm than the virus itself.
Many people have noticed similarities between the current outbreak and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003. In fact, the new virus is similar to the one that caused SARS. According to one estimate, SARS cost the global economy $50 billion. However, according to the WHO, before it was eradicated, SARS had only 8,096 cases and 774 deaths. In the current crisis, oil prices and many other commodities have plummeted. Many factories remain closed, affecting many companies and consumers who need goods and many suppliers of raw materials.
The economic impact of 2019-nCoV could be much greater than that of SARS because China’s economy is much larger than it was in 2003, and its people are richer. The United Nations World Tourism Organization, for example, estimates that nearly 168 million Chinese traveled abroad in 2018, spending about $277 billion. That’s already affecting those who sell goods and services to tourists, from Paris to Bangkok. In China alone, there are estimates that the response to the outbreak could shave 1 percentage point off GDP in the first quarter of this year.
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| A sign in several languages, including Chinese, tells customers that a pharmacy in Rome has run out of face masks. Photo: AFP |
Humanity has been through worse, but less chaos.
While the stakes are high, it is important to understand a few things. Although 2019-nCoV is a new virus, it is unlikely to cause as many deaths as diseases we have been living with for a very long time.
Tuberculosis, for example, kills more than 1 million people a year worldwide, and about a third of the world’s population is at risk of contracting the disease—though for most people, the immune system keeps the disease at bay. Malaria can kill about the same number of people. AIDS-related illnesses killed more than half a million people in 2018. Seasonal influenza kills an estimated 300,000 to 650,000 people globally each year. And these tolls are small compared to the biggest killers: heart disease, stroke, cancer, and dementia.
Furthermore, thanks to scientific and economic progress, improved communications, and international cooperation, we are now better positioned to respond to new diseases. Vaccines are currently in development for 2019-nCoV, although they will take months or even years to be widely available after multiple phases of testing. Economic development provides the means to mobilize resources to fight epidemics, with Chinese officials even claiming they can build a new hospital in just six days. The ability to be aware of the emergence of a new disease and take preventative measures can have a significant impact. For example, by sharing genetic analysis quickly, China has enabled other countries to detect new cases.
While there is currently no cure for 2019-nCoV, simply having access to better hospitals—a benefit of economic development around the world, but especially in China—means that more people can survive the worst of the disease and make a successful recovery.
While the thought of a new disease is certainly scary, devoting so much attention, regulation, and resources to 2019-nCoV could lead to economic misery for many. It could even cause more deaths if health care attention is diverted from treating more common, but equally dangerous, diseases. So let’s hope that authorities around the world keep a cool head!
