Development trends of US-India relations

(Baonghean) - The annual US-India strategic dialogue (from July 31) takes place at a time of special significance for both countries as well as for the region and the world. To clarify the content and nature of this dialogue as well as the trend of US-India relations, Nghe An newspaper interviewed Associate Professor, Dr., Major General Le Van Cuong, former director of the Institute of Strategy and Science of the Ministry of Public Security.

Reporter:Major General Le Van Cuong, can you tell us the context when entering the 5th US-India dialogue?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The US and India have held four rounds of strategic dialogues. The first took place in Washington (USA) in June 2010, the second in New Delhi in July 2011, the third in Washington in June 2012, and the fourth in New Delhi in June 2013. These are regular annual dialogues that take place on a rotating basis. The fifth dialogue was supposed to be held in Washington, but this time it was held in New Delhi, which was agreed upon by the US and India. The reason is that India has just had an election in May and the Indian People's Party led by Mr. Narendra Modi won an overwhelming victory and the new government is led by him. There has been a change in the highest-level politics in India, so the fifth time is a break with tradition. This is an occasion for Washington to hold in New Delhi, and it is also an occasion for the US Secretary of State to approach India's new leadership. This dialogue is also intended to prepare for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first foreign trip to the United States, scheduled for this September. That's the reason for the unusual meeting location.

The US changes its stance on Indian Prime Minister Modi (left).

Regarding the context of this dialogue, about India, in the past few years, the economy has stagnated, unable to maintain the impressive growth rate of 2009, 2010, 2011. Especially in 2013, the Indian economy stagnated. There are internal difficulties. There are problems due to the impact of the international economic crisis, and there are also problems due to the economic model. The Indian economy is in a stagnant context and they need motivation for economic development.

Last May, the Indian People's Party won. What is special about Prime Minister Narendra Modi is that his attitude is different from his predecessor. He has a very strong and clear view on the economic imposition of the West on developing countries, especially on India. This is something that the US is particularly concerned about. On the Indian side, there are internal political changes and economic difficulties.

On the US side, President Obama, in the context of entering the 5th strategic dialogue, also has advantages and difficulties. The main advantage is that the US economy has recovered over the past year and is entering a new period of development, with quite good growth, although there are still many uncertainties and risks. But in the past year, the US economy has been relatively good.

But in terms of foreign politics, the US is facing three major problems: The first problem is the Atlantic Ocean and for the past six months, the Ukraine issue has dragged the Obama administration and Europe into this. This is the knot of political relations. The relationship between Russia and the US has fallen into the worst phase, close to a cold war. People even said that Russia and the US are in a cold war, but I think there will not be a cold war. But this is the coldest, coldest period. The relationship between Russia and the US falls to a low point, which is not beneficial for both sides, this is the biggest difficulty for the Obama administration at present.

The second issue, in the Asia-Pacific region, when China placed the Haiyang 981 drilling rig, it also sparked a wave of international reaction to the international aggression against China in the East Sea. The Obama administration is also focusing on handling this issue. The highest level was the US Senate on July 11, which issued Resolution 412. This is a resolute stance against China, demanding that China immediately withdraw the Haiyang 981 drilling rig and combat vehicles. It is China's actions that have pushed the US-China relationship to its lowest point. That is also a difficulty. The third issue is that new problems have emerged in the Middle East in recent months, such as the issue of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Middle East. This is an extremist organization, extremely belligerent, brutal, more brutal than Alqueada. If this organization takes control of Iraq, it will be a disaster for the United States and many of its allies. The US's interests were seriously violated, causing certain confusion for the US.

The third issue is that the US-India bilateral relationship has fallen to a low point, especially after the US security forces arrested the Indian Deputy Consul General in the US in late 2013. This incident caused a fierce wave in the Indian political world. This action made the Indian Government retaliate firmly against the Obama administration. India is a region of residents, an anthropological region with great self-esteem, when touched they protested strongly. The US-India relationship has fallen to a low point since late 2013.

In short, the context of this 5th dialogue is that both the US and India are facing new difficulties, both domestically and internationally, and even the US-India relationship has difficulties that they must resolve.

Reporter:Major General, can you tell us the content and results of the 5th dialogue?

Major General Le Van Cuong:I think the focus is still on the economic issue. They mentioned this issue publicly, not hiding it from the international community. The economic relationship between the US and India is still at a very modest level. The bilateral relationship between the two countries is still only around 100 billion USD, very low compared to the needs and capabilities of each side. This trip, people set a requirement from now until 2020 or closer, to bring the bilateral economic relationship to 500 billion, commensurate with the two giant economies and commensurate with the political and security relationship between the two countries. This time they will discuss many issues to promote and expand cooperation. Regarding defense, they also mentioned the issue of forming a new missile production joint venture in India in which US partners, US defense corporations will play a leading role. The United States has proposed to help India produce new drones. These are the cooperations that the US has proposed, which will certainly meet India's requirements. In addition, they will cooperate with each other on the issue of joint exercises, conduct more joint exercises in the Indian Ocean, exchange officers, information, and intelligence. Even the issues of the conflict in Syria, the nuclear issue in Iran, and the conflict between Israel and Palestine will also be mentioned.

India is one of the five Brics countries, so the US will also take advantage of strategic dialogue with India as the center of this bloc. The US also wants to promote relations with India to some extent to send an indirect signal that the US wants to promote relations with India in the security field in resolving regional hot spots, including the East Sea and East China Sea issues. The US also wants to tighten relations with India, support India's relations with Japan, India's relations with Australia, within the encirclement and response to China. I think these issues will be raised more fully at two levels, the prime minister level in the meeting scheduled for next September, the defense ministry level of the two countries, and possibly the 2+2 level (defense minister and foreign minister of the two countries). In addition, there are a number of other issues. There are also issues that they still have issues with each other. For example, the US supports the regime that supports the civilian nuclear program in India but does not agree with India on clear responsibility for the civilian nuclear equipment supplier. The US opinion is that there needs to be a decision on monitoring this issue... But the overall result is that after the 5th strategic dialogue, a new era will open up, overcoming the lowest level. The overall result is to prepare for the Indian Prime Minister's trip to the United States to promote a new step in the development of relations. Compared to previous dialogues, this dialogue has the biggest result, easing the tension between the two countries.

Reporter:Can the Major General predict the possibility and development trend of US-India relations in the coming time?

Major General Le Van Cuong:I think we need to start from the driving forces behind the US-India relationship. We need to clarify what is driving the force. I think there are two factors: economic needs, political and security needs.

Economically, India really needs the US market, especially US technology. Through the US, it can expand to Europe, Japan, and the G7. At this time, India is only at an average level. They need to innovate equipment, improve competitiveness, and have high intellectual content in their products. This is an objective need, and India must definitely turn to the US. For sustainable and stable development, India needs the US.

As for the US, the US also needs the Indian market with a population of nearly 1.2 billion people. As a world leader in information technology, the US also needs to diversify its market. Economic relations also have internal requirements from within the US. This is an objective need that promotes each other. That is the driving factor.

As for the need for security, there are also needs on both sides. On many issues, the perception of global threats in general, Asia in particular, on basic issues, the perception of threats, instability, on Asian security issues, the US and India have similar views. It can be said that the US is focusing on opposing China, although when they talk about their diplomatic relations with each other, it is a partnership, cooperation, and construction, in fact, China is the most annoying partner of the US. The US is often passive in dealing with China. The same is true with India. The 1962 border war left a lasting mark on the Indian people and in Indian politics. No matter which party is in power in New Delhi, people will never forget the 1962 war with China. China's relations with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and a series of countries surrounding India certainly make New Delhi's leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration, doubt China's sincerity. Therefore, India cannot help but be wary of its giant neighbor - China. Therefore, the views of the US and India on China may be the same. They have a common target to deal with, handle, and guard against, which is China. It is also an objective need for India and the US to join hands. Therefore, they will overcome the points they have not met to promote and expand their relationship with each other.

The factors that limit the relationship between the two countries are the lack of trust in the strategic relationship between the US and India. In 2010, Obama made a platform speech: the US-India relationship is a partnership defined in the 21st century. However, in the past 4 years, this relationship has stagnated, even fallen to a low level. Therefore, the trust between the two countries does not have a sustainable foundation. Many actions of the Obama administration have made the Americans dissatisfied and unhappy. On the contrary, the US requires a higher role and effectiveness of India in resolving hot spots in the region, and according to the US, India has not yet fully fulfilled this role. It can be said that the two countries themselves have realized that they need to come together.

The third thing is that the government of the Indian People's Party of Prime Minister Modi is different from the previous Congress Party and coalition government. Prime Minister Modi himself personally has problems with the US. In 2005 - the year he was governor of a state, there was a riot and he took tough measures, the US banned Mr. Modi from issuing an entry visa to the US. Second, in terms of foreign policy, Mr. Modi has a very coherent, fair attitude, firmly opposing the West's policy towards developing countries. This is a point that can cause obstacles and difficulties. Another factor is the China factor, the Pakistan factor.

In short, these two countries have an objective need to come together, which is to stabilize development, to respond to regional issues, especially when in many cases the US and India have points of convergence.

I think that in the long run they will overcome difficulties to come together. But the US-India relationship will not have a rapid development, at least from now until 2016, there will not be a quick breakthrough step.

I believe that the US-India relationship is a particularly important relationship, having a major impact on the stability and security of the Asia-Pacific region, including the stability and development of Vietnam. And this relationship has an impact on the planning of Vietnam's domestic and foreign relations. From the perspective of a scholar, I support and hope that this relationship will develop steadily. Because it will contribute significantly to creating a peaceful and stable atmosphere for the Asia-Pacific region.

Reporter:Sincerely thank Major General Le Van Cuong!

PV(Perform)